Emerging pests and pathogens as a novel lens for unravelling social-ecological cascades

Project Information

INFLUX

Grant agreement ID: 101039376

DOI

10.3030/101039376

EC signature date 17 May 2022

Start date 1 July 2022

End date 30 June 2027

Funded under

• European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 1 499 705,00

EU contribution

€ 1 499 705,00

Coordinated by

STOCKHOLMS UNIVERSITET
Sweden

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - INFLUX (Emerging pests and pathogens as a novel lens for unravelling social-ecological cascades)

Reporting period: 2022-07-01 to 2024-12-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

Emerging pests and pathogens (EPPs) are an increasingly disruptive force to human society that can
cause large social and ecological changes far beyond their initial site of emergence. Three forces
contribute to this growing challenge now and in the foreseeable future: first, potential EPPs are
more likely to come in to first contact with human habitats as human land use expands. Second,
denser human trade and travel networks mean that EPPs are more likely to emerge in new regions.
Third, human technology, such as biocidal agents, increases risks for re-emergence. Understanding
how EPPs cascade across scales in social-ecological systems is therefore an urgent priority, but no
formal approach currently exists for analysing the ripple effects at scale, from their seeding to
their lasting societal imprints. This project aims to fill this gap in sustainability science for
society.

The INFLUX project will test the hypothesis that EPPs commonly cascade to interact with large-scale
social and environmental challenges and that small differences in social-ecological conditions in
turn influence the likelihood and nature of EPP cascades. I will test this hypothesis by leveraging
a comparative, mixed-methods research design to assemble a large database for up to 1600 EPPs,
encompassing microbial pathogens as well as arthropod and plant pests. Specifically, four
objectives will be pursued, which are to understand:

1. The drivers of emergence risk and their connections to human environmental sustainability and
social conditions.
2. The types of cascades that result from action aimed at governing EPPs.
3. The lasting impacts EPPs have on societies and the conditions under which they arise.
4. The feedbacks from 3.-1. including through implications for social equity and environmental
sustainability.

INFLUX constitutes a major step in situating EPPs in the field of sustainability science, and for
developing societal capacity to navigate a future characterized by them.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

Objective 1 (Emergence).
Mapping the network of drivers influence emergence of antibiotic resistance (Nguyen-Thanh et al. 2024, 1.1-1.4). Antibiotic resistance is one of the focal cases of project. We have used this case to advance methods for mapping complex causal networks of factors associated with (re-)emerging diseases. This network enables the simultaneous identification of emergence risks (1.3) and bundles of sustainability and equity implications (1.4). It will serve as a foundation for the identification and comparison of drivers across a larger set of EPPs. We have made progress in establishing a global comparative database of emergence cases across types of Emerging Pests and Pathogens (EPPs, 1.1). We have also made progress in understanding risks of regional emergence by using international networks of trade and how these are governed through trade (1.3). Both are currently being implemented across a large set of EPPs.

Objective 2 (Action).
Mapping actions of financial keystone actors and their implications for emerging infectious diseases (Galaz et al. 2023, 2.1 2.3). Our main research achievement has been the application of social-ecological network methods to link major financial actors to areas of high emerging zoonotic disease risk. National governmental action impacts on 16-year trends in antibiotic resistance, a global analysis (Søgaard Jørgensen et al. In review, 2.1-2.3). We have completed an analysis of the impact of stated national government action on 16-year trends of multiple indicators of antibiotic resistance. Our analysis demonstrates that incremental improvements in levels of action helps reduce the adversity of developments in antibiotic resistance. Linking proximate and distal policy action to emergence of antibiotic resistance (Nguyen-Thanh et al. In review, 2.1 2.3). We have shown synergies and tensions between actions from both focused policy agendas and cross-cutting agendas

Objective 3 (Impacts).
Detecting the cascading impacts of the rapid Fall Armyworm invasion on three continents (Bjorklund 2023 thesis, 3.1-3.3). The major achievement in this area is has been in the application of a new methodology to a case study that will serve as a foundation for broader application across EPPs (see details in methodology). Using online news sources, we have been able to trace and identify the cascading impacts of the Fall Armyworm (FAW), one of the most severe agricultural pests, during its rapid introduction to and spread across Africa, Asia and Oceania since 2016.

Objective 4 (Feedbacks and synthesis).
Identifying the major factors underlying cascading shocks and polycrisis (Søgaard Jørgensen et al. 2023). We have provided a first analysis of the systemic forces underlying the cascading polycrisis where shocks from EPPs are a core component (Søgaard Jørgensen et al. 2023, 4.1-4.3). Through the conceptualization of so-called Anthropocene traps, lock-ins that ultimately undermine human wellbeing, we have identified four fundamental dynamics that interact to produce the polycrisis. Temporal trends in national cascading shocks across the world from 1970 to 2022 (Delannoy et al. in review, 4.1-4.3). Assembling the most comprehensive global database of national shocks, we have shown how the intensity and diversity of shocks have changed over time with emerging infectious diseases acting as a major contributor to the recent increase in number of reported shocks around the world.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

1. Søgaard Jørgensen et al. 2023. The major advancement of the polycrisis theory is in the form of being the first identification of systemic forces leading to persistent crises situations and the empirical evaluation of the state and interaction between these forces. Our study significantly advances this state of the art by yielding testable hypotheses about when to expect interacting or cascading shocks to yield a state of polycrisis. The formation and test of the new theory was unexpected and unplanned as it started from a bottom-up investigation. As the investigation progressed, a new picture emerged of how these dynamics and traps combine to shape the vulnerability polycrisis with great relevance to understanding cascading shocks.
2. Nguyen-Thanh et al. 2024. The network of drivers and the characterization of drivers in terms of proximity-distality is a significant advancement beyond the state of the art in the study of drivers of antibiotic resistance. Our new approach opens up possibilities for considering combined effects and interactions of multiple drivers and also opens up possibilities for assessing the interaction between multiple policy frameworks in terms of how their interventions affects drivers and how these effects transmit to ultimately affect antibiotic resistance. The particular methodology was unplanned.
3. Galaz et al. 2023. The mapping of influence of financial actors on emerging infectious disease (EID) risk goes beyond the state of the art in studies of EID risk. The study introduces a whole new sub-field to the study of EID risk that focus on empirically identifying new types of public as well as private actors that have leverage to influence management on the ground in areas of high risk to EIDs.