Objective 1 (Emergence).
Mapping the network of drivers influence emergence of antibiotic resistance (Nguyen-Thanh et al. 2024, 1.1-1.4). Antibiotic resistance is one of the focal cases of project. We have used this case to advance methods for mapping complex causal networks of factors associated with (re-)emerging diseases. This network enables the simultaneous identification of emergence risks (1.3) and bundles of sustainability and equity implications (1.4). It will serve as a foundation for the identification and comparison of drivers across a larger set of EPPs. We have made progress in establishing a global comparative database of emergence cases across types of Emerging Pests and Pathogens (EPPs, 1.1). We have also made progress in understanding risks of regional emergence by using international networks of trade and how these are governed through trade (1.3). Both are currently being implemented across a large set of EPPs.
Objective 2 (Action).
Mapping actions of financial keystone actors and their implications for emerging infectious diseases (Galaz et al. 2023, 2.1 2.3). Our main research achievement has been the application of social-ecological network methods to link major financial actors to areas of high emerging zoonotic disease risk. National governmental action impacts on 16-year trends in antibiotic resistance, a global analysis (Søgaard Jørgensen et al. In review, 2.1-2.3). We have completed an analysis of the impact of stated national government action on 16-year trends of multiple indicators of antibiotic resistance. Our analysis demonstrates that incremental improvements in levels of action helps reduce the adversity of developments in antibiotic resistance. Linking proximate and distal policy action to emergence of antibiotic resistance (Nguyen-Thanh et al. In review, 2.1 2.3). We have shown synergies and tensions between actions from both focused policy agendas and cross-cutting agendas
Objective 3 (Impacts).
Detecting the cascading impacts of the rapid Fall Armyworm invasion on three continents (Bjorklund 2023 thesis, 3.1-3.3). The major achievement in this area is has been in the application of a new methodology to a case study that will serve as a foundation for broader application across EPPs (see details in methodology). Using online news sources, we have been able to trace and identify the cascading impacts of the Fall Armyworm (FAW), one of the most severe agricultural pests, during its rapid introduction to and spread across Africa, Asia and Oceania since 2016.
Objective 4 (Feedbacks and synthesis).
Identifying the major factors underlying cascading shocks and polycrisis (Søgaard Jørgensen et al. 2023). We have provided a first analysis of the systemic forces underlying the cascading polycrisis where shocks from EPPs are a core component (Søgaard Jørgensen et al. 2023, 4.1-4.3). Through the conceptualization of so-called Anthropocene traps, lock-ins that ultimately undermine human wellbeing, we have identified four fundamental dynamics that interact to produce the polycrisis. Temporal trends in national cascading shocks across the world from 1970 to 2022 (Delannoy et al. in review, 4.1-4.3). Assembling the most comprehensive global database of national shocks, we have shown how the intensity and diversity of shocks have changed over time with emerging infectious diseases acting as a major contributor to the recent increase in number of reported shocks around the world.
