Periodic Reporting for period 1 - IMAGINE adaptation (IMAGINE climate change adaptation in urban areas)
Période du rapport: 2023-01-01 au 2025-06-30
Impacts of climate change are happening as a result of extreme temperatures, sea-level rise, storm surges, or droughts. Communities and governments across the globe are preparing through actions to increase climate resilience. However, progress made to date to adapt is still poorly understood and tracked due to a lack of theoretical understanding and means to evaluate how well the world is adapting. Further barriers include unclear goals and metrics for adaptation in the absence of a shared definition of successful adaptation. Finding a response to this question is at the core of the international climate debate and holds particular significance at the local level, where assets and lives of millions of people are at risk.
'IMAGINE adaptation' addresses the imperative of how to evaluate adaptation in urban areas as a contemporary complex phenomenon with implications across governance scales. The current focus on policy progress can be useful as a first step, but it is not indicative of effective adaptation. A broader understanding of success in adaptation is required: one that transcends technocratic approaches and considers equity, justice, and maladaptive issues.
Through 'IMAGINE adaptation', the aim is to respond to four timely and ambitious objectives: First, revisiting and reformulating the concept of successful adaptation using expert and local views (Objective 1, O1). Second, exploring trends and needs regarding monitoring and evaluation and how these may enable or hinder adaptation (O2). Third, participating in and learning from local adaptation evaluation practices through a comparative case study research across 12 urban areas worldwide (O3). Finally, discussing how evaluations of local progress can inform global goals (O4). The outputs of this project will provide a reference for future adaptation assessment studies and pioneer the understanding of ways to enable far-reaching transformative urban adaptation through processes of evaluation and learning.
'IMAGINE adaptation' addresses the imperative of how to evaluate adaptation in urban areas as a contemporary complex phenomenon with implications across governance scales. The current focus on policy progress can be useful as a first step, but it is not indicative of effective adaptation. A broader understanding of success in adaptation is required: one that transcends technocratic approaches and considers equity, justice, and maladaptive issues.
Through 'IMAGINE adaptation', the aim is to respond to four timely and ambitious objectives: First, revisiting and reformulating the concept of successful adaptation using expert and local views (Objective 1, O1). Second, exploring trends and needs regarding monitoring and evaluation and how these may enable or hinder adaptation (O2). Third, participating in and learning from local adaptation evaluation practices through a comparative case study research across 12 urban areas worldwide (O3). Finally, discussing how evaluations of local progress can inform global goals (O4). The outputs of this project will provide a reference for future adaptation assessment studies and pioneer the understanding of ways to enable far-reaching transformative urban adaptation through processes of evaluation and learning.
Defining Successful Adaptation (O1):
IMAGINE Adaptation aims to understand effective and successful local climate adaptation. To achieve this, we are combining expert knowledge with local insights. A critical review in Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability identified three key adaptation challenges: a one-size-fits-all approach, limited recognition of diverse knowledge and values, and a lack of experimentation. These barriers hinder adaptive governance. The findings have instigated discussions at key European institutions. Building on this, we reviewed “everyday adaptations” in urban contexts, analysing its practices and meanings. Findings suggest the need for more nuanced approaches beyond conventional IPCC frameworks.
A workshop in Norway brought together 27 experts to explore successful adaptation through a Theory of Change approach. Participants co-developed a statement focusing on equity, well-being, and success conditions, forming a foundation for urban case studies. Interviews with 50 experts revealed how adaptation narratives are shifting towards human rights, systemic change, and equity, highlighting the complexities of current adaptation efforts beyond risk framings.
Another study analysed how 100 global practitioners imagine urban adaptation using 31 visual representations. The findings revealed four dominant themes: green utopia, sustainable lifestyles, climate emergency, and technocracy. These findings have been shared with European stakeholders. A critical review linked these imaginaries to positive futures thinking, promoting context-sensitive strategies, justice, and iterative learning.
Discussions on the need for disruptive changes in adaptation led to a publication in Local Government Studies and a special issue in Buildings and Cities.
Monitoring & Evaluation Trends and Needs (O2):
In IMAGINE Adaptation we also focus on accelerating transformative monitoring, evaluation and learning. A systematic review of 137 studies identified 901 urban adaptation indicators, showing a lack of standardisation and practical usability. This research was undertaken in collaboration with the International Platform of Adaptation Metrics. A survey of 150 experts further identified challenges, providing insights for future workshops and strategies. Our research has also contributed to several MSc and PhD research publications.
Urban Case Studies (O3):
To ensure adaptation is grounded in local realities, we engage directly with cities. A research campaign has engaged nine cities, with three more expected to join. Tailored research plans and local advisory groups have been co-created, combining online and in-person collaboration. Plans are in place for communities of practice, fostering shared learning. A comparative study of these urban areas will enhance knowledge exchange and align methodologies.
Local to Global (O4):
IMAGINE Adaptation examines how local efforts might influence global climate policies. A study published in Cities applied an Intersectional Climate Justice framework to align global goals with local needs. Team participation in global forums like Adaptation Futures, EU Regions and Cities Week, and COP29 bridges local and global governance. Interviews and a science-policy workshop will explore how local progress can inform broader climate policies.
IMAGINE Adaptation aims to understand effective and successful local climate adaptation. To achieve this, we are combining expert knowledge with local insights. A critical review in Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability identified three key adaptation challenges: a one-size-fits-all approach, limited recognition of diverse knowledge and values, and a lack of experimentation. These barriers hinder adaptive governance. The findings have instigated discussions at key European institutions. Building on this, we reviewed “everyday adaptations” in urban contexts, analysing its practices and meanings. Findings suggest the need for more nuanced approaches beyond conventional IPCC frameworks.
A workshop in Norway brought together 27 experts to explore successful adaptation through a Theory of Change approach. Participants co-developed a statement focusing on equity, well-being, and success conditions, forming a foundation for urban case studies. Interviews with 50 experts revealed how adaptation narratives are shifting towards human rights, systemic change, and equity, highlighting the complexities of current adaptation efforts beyond risk framings.
Another study analysed how 100 global practitioners imagine urban adaptation using 31 visual representations. The findings revealed four dominant themes: green utopia, sustainable lifestyles, climate emergency, and technocracy. These findings have been shared with European stakeholders. A critical review linked these imaginaries to positive futures thinking, promoting context-sensitive strategies, justice, and iterative learning.
Discussions on the need for disruptive changes in adaptation led to a publication in Local Government Studies and a special issue in Buildings and Cities.
Monitoring & Evaluation Trends and Needs (O2):
In IMAGINE Adaptation we also focus on accelerating transformative monitoring, evaluation and learning. A systematic review of 137 studies identified 901 urban adaptation indicators, showing a lack of standardisation and practical usability. This research was undertaken in collaboration with the International Platform of Adaptation Metrics. A survey of 150 experts further identified challenges, providing insights for future workshops and strategies. Our research has also contributed to several MSc and PhD research publications.
Urban Case Studies (O3):
To ensure adaptation is grounded in local realities, we engage directly with cities. A research campaign has engaged nine cities, with three more expected to join. Tailored research plans and local advisory groups have been co-created, combining online and in-person collaboration. Plans are in place for communities of practice, fostering shared learning. A comparative study of these urban areas will enhance knowledge exchange and align methodologies.
Local to Global (O4):
IMAGINE Adaptation examines how local efforts might influence global climate policies. A study published in Cities applied an Intersectional Climate Justice framework to align global goals with local needs. Team participation in global forums like Adaptation Futures, EU Regions and Cities Week, and COP29 bridges local and global governance. Interviews and a science-policy workshop will explore how local progress can inform broader climate policies.
IMAGINE Adaptation is rethinking the current understanding of adaptation by contributing to a new evolved theory of adaptation success, focusing on an inclusive, reflective approach. Working with almost 300 scientists and practitioners across scales, findings point out that adaptation must go beyond risk reduction, incorporating human development, equity, and survival rights. This broader perspective includes liveability, migration, and loss and damage, reshaping adaptation success to include dignity for both humans and ecosystems.
A key achievement is the creation of a transdisciplinary environment where local practitioners collaborate on monitoring, evaluation, reporting, and learning (MERL) processes. In 12 cities, co-created MERL processes break traditional scientific-policy boundaries, focusing on co-designed solutions. This collaborative approach has led to formal agreements, reinforcing transformative potential.
IMAGINE Adaptation has also contributed to future adaptation assessments. A review of over 900 urban adaptation indicators sets a new standard for future studies. The art-science collaboration and the 31 illustrations of adaptation concepts have been an unexpected achievement. These visuals are effective knowledge co-production and educational tools and spark interest in integrating art with science for adaptation policy.
A key achievement is the creation of a transdisciplinary environment where local practitioners collaborate on monitoring, evaluation, reporting, and learning (MERL) processes. In 12 cities, co-created MERL processes break traditional scientific-policy boundaries, focusing on co-designed solutions. This collaborative approach has led to formal agreements, reinforcing transformative potential.
IMAGINE Adaptation has also contributed to future adaptation assessments. A review of over 900 urban adaptation indicators sets a new standard for future studies. The art-science collaboration and the 31 illustrations of adaptation concepts have been an unexpected achievement. These visuals are effective knowledge co-production and educational tools and spark interest in integrating art with science for adaptation policy.