Project description
Long-term impacts of climate change on the Earth system
There is a possibility that climate change could weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation through increases in ocean heat content and elevated freshwater flows from the melting ice sheets. This is a climate surprise that has low probability but potentially high impact. Forecasting climate surprises is important but not easy. It requires a new-generation fast Earth system model (FESM) and a highly novel and generalised probabilistic approach to constrain the FESM to be consistent with output from the latest generation of Earth system models. In this context, the ERC-funded FORCLIMA project will generate probabilistic estimates of climate surprises for the medium-term future (centuries to millennia) with much higher confidence than we have today.
Objective
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS, respectively) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are prominent examples of tipping elements in the Earth system that have the potential to respond nonlinearly to small changes in forcing. Tipping elements can thus give rise to climate surprises, i.e. low-probability, high-impact events that may be triggered earlier than expected. Simulating such climate surprises and their impacts, on the relevant multi-centennial timescales and beyond, is particularly challenging. Today, the right methods are not available, resulting in deep uncertainty in future projections. Here I aim to develop a novel, probabilistic methodology to robustly forecast climate surprises such as ice-sheet and AMOC collapse on long timescales. This requires simultaneous advances beyond the state of the art on two fronts. First, a new generation Fast Earth System Model (FESM) will leverage the latest advances in our understanding of key processes to represent the GrIS, AIS and AMOC realistically, in a coupled framework and on long timescales. Critically, this will be the first comprehensive model fast enough to run the large ensembles of simulations needed to quantify the uncertainty associated with deeply uncertain processes. Second, a highly novel and generalized probabilistic approach will be developed, to constrain the FESM to be consistent with output from the latest generation of Earth System Models. FORCLIMA will generate probabilistic estimates of climate surprises for the medium-term future (centuries to millennia) with much higher confidence than we have today, and inform about interactions between key tipping elements in the climate system. This project will therefore greatly advance the state of the art in coupled climate – ice-sheet modeling, and lead to an unparalleled understanding of the long-term impacts of climate change on the Earth system.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: https://op.europa.eu/en/web/eu-vocabularies/euroscivoc.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: https://op.europa.eu/en/web/eu-vocabularies/euroscivoc.
- natural sciences computer and information sciences software software applications simulation software
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2021-COG
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
27570 Bremerhaven
Germany
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.