Project description
Progression and dropout in collective processes
Socio-psychological problems like addictions and conspiracy thinking can be addressed by collective learning. This occurs through mechanisms of tipping points and phase transitions where individual transition initiates social transitions or is triggered by them. Unfortunately, little is known about how cascade transitions occur and how to predict or prevent them. The ERC-funded Cascade project will apply mathematical models to research multi-level cascading transitions in psycho-social systems. The project will focus on three cases: from individuals to entire populations and vice versa; in learning, where progression and dropout are embedded in collective processes; and in addictions, where transitions to addiction or abstinence in individuals are part of cascade changes in substance use in the population.
Objective
Tipping points or phase transitions separate stable states in psycho-social systems. Examples are quitting smoking, radicalization, and dropping-out of school. Two knowledge gaps prevent our ability to predict and control these tipping points. First, we miss explanatory mathematical models of such non-linear processes. Second, we ignore the multilevel character of psycho-social transitions. I contend that important changes in many psycho-social systems are cascading transitions, where individual transitions trigger or are triggered by social transitions. The cascade of radicalization of individuals in the context of political polarization in societies is an example of such a multilevel process. Being able to predict and control cascading transitions in psycho-social systems would be a major scientific breakthrough.
As an expert of complex systems research in the behavioural and social sciences, with an extensive track record in studying single level psychological transition processes (e.g. in perception, sleep, disorders, cognition, and attitudes), my key objective is to develop a novel and broadly applicable methodology to study multilevel cascading transitions in psycho-social systems. This methodology comprises theory construction in the form of mathematical modelling and innovative empirical analyses. I will do so by studying three important examples: a) opinion change from individuals to populations and back, b) learning, where progression and drop-out are embedded in collective processes, c) addiction, where transitions to addiction or abstinence within individuals are part of cascading epidemiological changes of substance use in populations.
Beyond its immediate utility in these three cases, I envisage this novel, highly interdisciplinary project to stimulate future scientific research on cascading transitions in other disciplines, such as climate research, and to have significant impact on practices in conflict management, healthcare, and education.
Keywords
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Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
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Topic(s)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
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Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
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Call for proposal
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(opens in new window) ERC-2021-ADG
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1012WX Amsterdam
Netherlands
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