The work is performed in several work packages.
WP2 used the Climate Policy Database (CPDB) and the Climate Policy Modelling Protocol (CPMP) to develop and analyse a new set of national and global climate policy scenarios (Current Policies, NDC, NDC-LTS), and scenarios aiming at achieving the Paris goal (1.5 °C and 2 °C). The scenario analysis covered the evaluation of the emission gaps (in terms of implementation and ambition) and provided regional/sectoral insights, as well as country-specific insights for Brazil, China, India, Japan, Poland and Saudi Arabia.
WP3 identified critical enabling factors and barriers to technological and sectoral transformations and behavioural change, creating an overview that is useful for policymakers to better understand sectoral climate policy strategies under different contexts. Moreover, the project investigated specific case studies to identify country clusters that clearly differ in terms of the political economy, and their barriers to climate policy, focusing on areas where governance and the political landscape strongly influence the outcomes: coal transition strategies, carbon pricing and international finance. Through this research, we recommend context-sensitive, equity-driven strategies and propose developing stylized political economy indicators for integration into climate-economy models, helping align policy scenarios with real-world constraints.
WP4 evaluated climate neutrality announcements and climate intervention strategies through a lens of international governance and political economy. Our research provides the first comprehensive assessment of the feasibility of three international climate policy initiatives: internationally transferable mitigation outcomes (ITMOs), carbon removals (CRs) and loss and damage (L&D). Furthermore, it investigates the public perception and governance of climate interventions complimentary to emissions reductions, such as CO2 removals (CDR) and solar radiation modification (SRM). Finally, the project investigated international trade measures (including EU-CBAM) and considered the recent significant geopolitical events to assess growing concerns over energy security and disruptions in international cooperation that have motivated the use of protectionist trade policies.
WP5 pays attention to sustainability and equity. It developed a practical framework to support the integration of justice dimensions into modelling tools and critically reflects on how to communicate these efforts. Furthermore, the project advanced research on universal access and basic needs, developing modelling tools (e.g. the DESIRE model) and frameworks to evaluate decent living standards, and assessing the heterogeneous impacts of instruments such as carbon pricing and cash transfers on various groups of the population.
WP6 evaluated net-zero scenarios, starting with an analysis of existing scenarios and exploring how different formulations of net-zero can influence timing and implementation of the climate goals. Furthermore, the project contributed to the coordination of the SSPs update for population and economic drivers. Finally, ongoing research is focusing on the downscaling of scenarios to better inform national policymaking and on developing transition scenarios to net-zero, which will ultimately result in transition roadmaps for net-zero emissions.
