Periodic Reporting for period 2 - ELEVATE (ENABLING AND LEVERAGING CLIMATE ACTION TOWARDS NET-ZERO EMISSIONS)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2024-03-01 do 2025-08-31
Impacts of human-induced climate change can already be observed and current trends will lead to further warming with possibly catastrophic implications for human development. Climate action is therefore urgently needed. As part of the Paris Agreement, countries have agreed to limit global mean temperature increase to well-below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. To achieve this, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions need to be reduced rapidly. In fact, most emission scenarios consistent with the Paris objectives reach net-zero emissions around mid-century. The Paris Agreement specifies that these ambitious mitigation efforts need to be implemented and communicated via Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). In the past few years, many countries have formulated such NDCs and expressed long-term policy goals regarding net-zero emissions targets. However, the combined effect of all national NDCs, even if fully implemented, is still clearly insufficient to achieve the Paris objectives. Much deeper emission reductions are needed both in developed and developing economies. ELEVATE’s main aim is to develop transformative new scientific insights to support the preparations of NDCs and national climate policies focused on achieving net-zero emissions, in line with the Paris Agreement.
The work is performed in several work packages.
WP2 used the Climate Policy Database (CPDB) and the Climate Policy Modelling Protocol (CPMP) to develop and analyse a new set of national and global climate policy scenarios (Current Policies, NDC, NDC-LTS), and scenarios aiming at achieving the Paris goal (1.5 °C and 2 °C). The scenario analysis covered the evaluation of the emission gaps (in terms of implementation and ambition) and provided regional/sectoral insights, as well as country-specific insights for Brazil, China, India, Japan, Poland and Saudi Arabia.
WP3 identified critical enabling factors and barriers to technological and sectoral transformations and behavioural change, creating an overview that is useful for policymakers to better understand sectoral climate policy strategies under different contexts. Moreover, the project investigated specific case studies to identify country clusters that clearly differ in terms of the political economy, and their barriers to climate policy, focusing on areas where governance and the political landscape strongly influence the outcomes: coal transition strategies, carbon pricing and international finance. Through this research, we recommend context-sensitive, equity-driven strategies and propose developing stylized political economy indicators for integration into climate-economy models, helping align policy scenarios with real-world constraints.
WP4 evaluated climate neutrality announcements and climate intervention strategies through a lens of international governance and political economy. Our research provides the first comprehensive assessment of the feasibility of three international climate policy initiatives: internationally transferable mitigation outcomes (ITMOs), carbon removals (CRs) and loss and damage (L&D). Furthermore, it investigates the public perception and governance of climate interventions complimentary to emissions reductions, such as CO2 removals (CDR) and solar radiation modification (SRM). Finally, the project investigated international trade measures (including EU-CBAM) and considered the recent significant geopolitical events to assess growing concerns over energy security and disruptions in international cooperation that have motivated the use of protectionist trade policies.
WP5 pays attention to sustainability and equity. It developed a practical framework to support the integration of justice dimensions into modelling tools and critically reflects on how to communicate these efforts. Furthermore, the project advanced research on universal access and basic needs, developing modelling tools (e.g. the DESIRE model) and frameworks to evaluate decent living standards, and assessing the heterogeneous impacts of instruments such as carbon pricing and cash transfers on various groups of the population.
WP6 evaluated net-zero scenarios, starting with an analysis of existing scenarios and exploring how different formulations of net-zero can influence timing and implementation of the climate goals. Furthermore, the project contributed to the coordination of the SSPs update for population and economic drivers. Finally, ongoing research is focusing on the downscaling of scenarios to better inform national policymaking and on developing transition scenarios to net-zero, which will ultimately result in transition roadmaps for net-zero emissions.
WP2 used the Climate Policy Database (CPDB) and the Climate Policy Modelling Protocol (CPMP) to develop and analyse a new set of national and global climate policy scenarios (Current Policies, NDC, NDC-LTS), and scenarios aiming at achieving the Paris goal (1.5 °C and 2 °C). The scenario analysis covered the evaluation of the emission gaps (in terms of implementation and ambition) and provided regional/sectoral insights, as well as country-specific insights for Brazil, China, India, Japan, Poland and Saudi Arabia.
WP3 identified critical enabling factors and barriers to technological and sectoral transformations and behavioural change, creating an overview that is useful for policymakers to better understand sectoral climate policy strategies under different contexts. Moreover, the project investigated specific case studies to identify country clusters that clearly differ in terms of the political economy, and their barriers to climate policy, focusing on areas where governance and the political landscape strongly influence the outcomes: coal transition strategies, carbon pricing and international finance. Through this research, we recommend context-sensitive, equity-driven strategies and propose developing stylized political economy indicators for integration into climate-economy models, helping align policy scenarios with real-world constraints.
WP4 evaluated climate neutrality announcements and climate intervention strategies through a lens of international governance and political economy. Our research provides the first comprehensive assessment of the feasibility of three international climate policy initiatives: internationally transferable mitigation outcomes (ITMOs), carbon removals (CRs) and loss and damage (L&D). Furthermore, it investigates the public perception and governance of climate interventions complimentary to emissions reductions, such as CO2 removals (CDR) and solar radiation modification (SRM). Finally, the project investigated international trade measures (including EU-CBAM) and considered the recent significant geopolitical events to assess growing concerns over energy security and disruptions in international cooperation that have motivated the use of protectionist trade policies.
WP5 pays attention to sustainability and equity. It developed a practical framework to support the integration of justice dimensions into modelling tools and critically reflects on how to communicate these efforts. Furthermore, the project advanced research on universal access and basic needs, developing modelling tools (e.g. the DESIRE model) and frameworks to evaluate decent living standards, and assessing the heterogeneous impacts of instruments such as carbon pricing and cash transfers on various groups of the population.
WP6 evaluated net-zero scenarios, starting with an analysis of existing scenarios and exploring how different formulations of net-zero can influence timing and implementation of the climate goals. Furthermore, the project contributed to the coordination of the SSPs update for population and economic drivers. Finally, ongoing research is focusing on the downscaling of scenarios to better inform national policymaking and on developing transition scenarios to net-zero, which will ultimately result in transition roadmaps for net-zero emissions.
ELEVATE has significantly advanced the ability of the IAM community to elevate current policies and pledges of large emitting countries and evaluate in greater detail the implementation and ambition gaps in GHG emissions. The project delivered the new generation of climate policy scenarios (Current Policies, NDCs and NDCs to long-term strategies). The project also improved the connections between political economy analysis and IAMs scenarios, and developed two new tools to explore equity and climate justice in scenario analysis: Carbon Budget Explorer (https://carbonbudgetexplorer.eu/(odnośnik otworzy się w nowym oknie)) and Carbon Debt Tool (https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/carbondebt(odnośnik otworzy się w nowym oknie)). Additionally, ELEVATE supported the development of DESIRE, a new model that fills a critical gap in modelling inequality-growth-efficiency interactions (https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adc3ad(odnośnik otworzy się w nowym oknie)).