Periodic Reporting for period 2 - ForestNavigator (Navigating European Forests and forest bioeconomy sustainably to EU climate neutrality)
Período documentado: 2024-04-01 hasta 2025-09-30
EU forests play a central role in achieving the EU climate-neutrality goal. They cover 44% of the region’s land, absorb nearly 10% of its greenhouse gas emissions, and their contribution is expected to grow. Yet forest carbon removals have declined in the past decade due to rising wood demand, more natural disturbances, and forests reaching maturity.
The ForestNavigator project assesses the climate-mitigation potential of forests and related sectors by modelling policy pathways aligned with 2030 and 2050 climate goals, informing EU and national decision makers. These pathways consider economic impacts, an expanding bioeconomy, climate feedbacks, natural disturbances, biodiversity, and other ecosystem services, clarifying key synergies and trade-offs. ForestNavigator combines observational data, policy expertise, and advanced modelling tools to build a Policy Modelling Toolbox that integrates adaptation, mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and bioeconomy strategies. The Toolbox relies on consistent near-real-time monitoring and modelling of forest carbon, biodiversity, and bioeconomy, giving policymakers efficient tools for climate action. With a European scope, ForestNavigator zooms into select Member States to improve consistency between EU and national pathways and zooms out towards the global scale to account for external EU drivers and potential leakage effects.
The ForestNavigator project assesses the climate-mitigation potential of forests and related sectors by modelling policy pathways aligned with 2030 and 2050 climate goals, informing EU and national decision makers. These pathways consider economic impacts, an expanding bioeconomy, climate feedbacks, natural disturbances, biodiversity, and other ecosystem services, clarifying key synergies and trade-offs. ForestNavigator combines observational data, policy expertise, and advanced modelling tools to build a Policy Modelling Toolbox that integrates adaptation, mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and bioeconomy strategies. The Toolbox relies on consistent near-real-time monitoring and modelling of forest carbon, biodiversity, and bioeconomy, giving policymakers efficient tools for climate action. With a European scope, ForestNavigator zooms into select Member States to improve consistency between EU and national pathways and zooms out towards the global scale to account for external EU drivers and potential leakage effects.
The project completed key databases, including EU forest types, natural disturbances, biodiversity responses, management costs, climate impacts, and the economic value of cultural and recreational services, enabling a holistic representation of forest ecosystem services. The Forest4model Datacube (v1 in D2.1 v2 in D2.3) represents the near past (2000-2023) and current EU forest status (to 2024). The EUFo database describes the status and historical changes of forest carbon stocks (D2.2). For each EU country, descriptions of current and emerging alternative forest management systems were collected (Adapt4Model database, D3.1) to support modelling future management under changing climate and societal demands.
The project developed process-based forest models and a climate-feedback emulator for fast, robust scenario analysis incorporating climate impacts and uncertainties. A new modelling engine captures climate- and disturbance-driven impacts in the G4M-X forest model. The I3PGmiX model application shows climate-change impacts on EU forests (D3.2). Calibration to regional process-based forest models produced an emulator with reduced input needs and rapid deployment (D3.3). Biodiversity modelling using iBIS was enhanced to assess the impacts of future management (D4.1 D4.3).
National and EU Modelling Toolboxes were developed to provide consistent forest mitigation pathways aligned across scales and with official reporting of emissions and removals. Key milestones were formulating wood-market scenarios (D5.1) which were assessed for disclosing potential mitigation from wood-based bioeconomy developments (D5.2 D5.3) and socioeconomic benefits using MAGNET model (D5.4). Additionally, EU-scale model GLOBIOM-G4M-X and national models (CBMs, Heureka) were calibrated and improved, aligning the representation of climate impacts (D6.2).
The collection of EU forest-related policies led to a policy-tracker database supporting integration of policies into pathways. Project team and stakeholders co-created storylines, which were developed into quantitative scenarios toward climate neutrality for EU forests and the forest-based bioeconomy.
The project developed process-based forest models and a climate-feedback emulator for fast, robust scenario analysis incorporating climate impacts and uncertainties. A new modelling engine captures climate- and disturbance-driven impacts in the G4M-X forest model. The I3PGmiX model application shows climate-change impacts on EU forests (D3.2). Calibration to regional process-based forest models produced an emulator with reduced input needs and rapid deployment (D3.3). Biodiversity modelling using iBIS was enhanced to assess the impacts of future management (D4.1 D4.3).
National and EU Modelling Toolboxes were developed to provide consistent forest mitigation pathways aligned across scales and with official reporting of emissions and removals. Key milestones were formulating wood-market scenarios (D5.1) which were assessed for disclosing potential mitigation from wood-based bioeconomy developments (D5.2 D5.3) and socioeconomic benefits using MAGNET model (D5.4). Additionally, EU-scale model GLOBIOM-G4M-X and national models (CBMs, Heureka) were calibrated and improved, aligning the representation of climate impacts (D6.2).
The collection of EU forest-related policies led to a policy-tracker database supporting integration of policies into pathways. Project team and stakeholders co-created storylines, which were developed into quantitative scenarios toward climate neutrality for EU forests and the forest-based bioeconomy.
The Forest4Model Datacube and the EUFo databases provide timely data to support carbon and biodiversity monitoring, national reporting, and strategic forest planning. The new forest modelling engine, I3PGmiX, and the G4M-X emulator (D3.3) improve understanding of how climate change and disturbances affect forest growth. Ongoing cross-scale calibration under alternative managements will refine insights into future forest conditions and adaptation across the EU.
Advances in biodiversity modelling enable assessment of synergies and trade-offs between climate and biodiversity outcomes under alternative management options. Complementing this, the assessment of recreational and cultural values under different management strategies helps capture benefits not reflected in state-of-the-art forest land-use models (D4.6).
Wood market scenarios (D5.1) and their associated analyses of potential substitution effects (D5.3) harvested wood product mitigation (D5.2) and socioeconomic indicators (D5.4) are essential for assessing mitigation opportunities linked to wood use. These data contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the wood sector’s role in decarbonizing the EU economy and enhancing regional welfare.
A fast climate emulator (MESMER-L-X, D4.5) enables projections of local temperature responses to forest changes. This tool will support assessments of European forest policy pathways through its integration into our Policy Modelling Toolbox, further enhanced with national and EU policy-relevant models. The models include a more accurate representation of climate impacts, strengthening assessments of forest resilience. By incorporating whole-economy insights, policymakers can better understand the economic implications of alternative strategies and identify pathways that deliver broad socioeconomic benefits.
Advances in biodiversity modelling enable assessment of synergies and trade-offs between climate and biodiversity outcomes under alternative management options. Complementing this, the assessment of recreational and cultural values under different management strategies helps capture benefits not reflected in state-of-the-art forest land-use models (D4.6).
Wood market scenarios (D5.1) and their associated analyses of potential substitution effects (D5.3) harvested wood product mitigation (D5.2) and socioeconomic indicators (D5.4) are essential for assessing mitigation opportunities linked to wood use. These data contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the wood sector’s role in decarbonizing the EU economy and enhancing regional welfare.
A fast climate emulator (MESMER-L-X, D4.5) enables projections of local temperature responses to forest changes. This tool will support assessments of European forest policy pathways through its integration into our Policy Modelling Toolbox, further enhanced with national and EU policy-relevant models. The models include a more accurate representation of climate impacts, strengthening assessments of forest resilience. By incorporating whole-economy insights, policymakers can better understand the economic implications of alternative strategies and identify pathways that deliver broad socioeconomic benefits.