Periodic Reporting for period 1 - ForestNavigator (Navigating European Forests and forest bioeconomy sustainably to EU climate neutrality)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2022-10-01 al 2024-03-31
EU forests play a central role in achieving the EU climate neutrality goal. They cover 44% of the region’s land and absorb nearly 10% of its greenhouse gas emissions, yearly. This contribution is expected to grow, however, the rate of carbon removals from forests has declined in the past decade due to increased wood demand, more natural disturbances, and forests reaching maturity.
The ForestNavigator project assesses the climate mitigation potential of forests and forest-based sectors by modelling policy pathways, aligned with medium (2030) and long-term (2050) climate goals, informing EU and national decision makers. These pathways will account for economic impacts, climate feedbacks, natural disturbances, and impacts on biodiversity and other ecosystem services, enhancing the understanding of synergies and trade-offs. ForestNavigator combines observational data, policy expertise, and advanced modelling tools to develop a Policy Modelling Toolbox able to seamlessly integrate demands for adaptation, mitigation, biodiversity conservation and bioeconomy. The Toolbox relies on near-real time monitoring of forests, carbon, and biodiversity, and provides policy makers with efficient decision-making tools for climate action. With a European scope, ForestNavigator zooms into select Member States (MS) to enhance the consistency of the EU and national pathways, and zooms out towards the global scale, by considering extra-EU drivers and potential leakage effects. To increase accessibility of the model and pathway assessments, ForestNavigator develops a decision-making platform consisting of the web-based ForestNavigator Portal and the Forest Policy Modelling Forum (FPMF), a community of policy makers, national authorities, and modellers.
The ForestNavigator project assesses the climate mitigation potential of forests and forest-based sectors by modelling policy pathways, aligned with medium (2030) and long-term (2050) climate goals, informing EU and national decision makers. These pathways will account for economic impacts, climate feedbacks, natural disturbances, and impacts on biodiversity and other ecosystem services, enhancing the understanding of synergies and trade-offs. ForestNavigator combines observational data, policy expertise, and advanced modelling tools to develop a Policy Modelling Toolbox able to seamlessly integrate demands for adaptation, mitigation, biodiversity conservation and bioeconomy. The Toolbox relies on near-real time monitoring of forests, carbon, and biodiversity, and provides policy makers with efficient decision-making tools for climate action. With a European scope, ForestNavigator zooms into select Member States (MS) to enhance the consistency of the EU and national pathways, and zooms out towards the global scale, by considering extra-EU drivers and potential leakage effects. To increase accessibility of the model and pathway assessments, ForestNavigator develops a decision-making platform consisting of the web-based ForestNavigator Portal and the Forest Policy Modelling Forum (FPMF), a community of policy makers, national authorities, and modellers.
The project has created the Forest4model Datacube, a publicly-available, multi-layered and harmonized geodatabase, representing the near past (2000-2020) and present status of EU forests, including a series of mapped indicators to be used for carbon and biodiversity monitoring and modelling (D2.1).
For each EU country, the project has collected descriptions of current and emerging forest management systems and organized them in the Adapt4Model database to enable the modelling of management alternatives under future climate and societal demands. The database has been tailored to extract forest management system parameters relevant for forest models (D3.1).
A new modelling engine captures impacts of climate change and disturbances in the large-scale forest model G4M-X, by adapting an existing process-based model, resulting in the I3PGmiX model. The model has been tested with a proof-of-concept application showcasing impacts of climate change on EU forests (D3.2). Complementary to the modelling of forest structures, the project enhanced the biodiversity modelling framework iBIS to assess the biodiversity impacts of future forest management and tested it on stylized scenarios (D4.1).
A collection of socioeconomic indicators (D4.2) was created to address the spatialization of monetary values in the modelling of wood provisioning profitability, employment and for evaluation of cultural services. This work is complementary to a questionnaire, co-designed with stakeholders, for a choice experiment on recreational and cultural services in relation to forest management options to be launched in four EU countries.
With expert support and modelling tools, wood market scenarios were formulated, disclosing potential impacts of alternative bioeconomy developments on wood demands and mitigation contribution from the wood-based bioeconomy. These included selected end uses of wood products and bioenergy and quantified their associated wood demands and impacts on harvest levels (D5.1). Additionally, the project has established a detailed data exchange protocol for GLOBIOM-G4M-X and national models (CBMs, Heureka), for cross-scale interfacing of EU and the National Policy Modelling toolbox.
The collection of policies related to EU forests has led to the creation of a policy tracker database that facilitates tracking of policy progress along the project lifetime and consistent consideration of policies into pathways. To model these pathways, the project team and stakeholders have also co-created three storylines towards climate neutrality, which form the archetypes of alternative scenarios for EU forests and forest-based bioeconomy.
Deliverables and data are available through https://www.forestnavigator.eu/resources/(si apre in una nuova finestra)
For each EU country, the project has collected descriptions of current and emerging forest management systems and organized them in the Adapt4Model database to enable the modelling of management alternatives under future climate and societal demands. The database has been tailored to extract forest management system parameters relevant for forest models (D3.1).
A new modelling engine captures impacts of climate change and disturbances in the large-scale forest model G4M-X, by adapting an existing process-based model, resulting in the I3PGmiX model. The model has been tested with a proof-of-concept application showcasing impacts of climate change on EU forests (D3.2). Complementary to the modelling of forest structures, the project enhanced the biodiversity modelling framework iBIS to assess the biodiversity impacts of future forest management and tested it on stylized scenarios (D4.1).
A collection of socioeconomic indicators (D4.2) was created to address the spatialization of monetary values in the modelling of wood provisioning profitability, employment and for evaluation of cultural services. This work is complementary to a questionnaire, co-designed with stakeholders, for a choice experiment on recreational and cultural services in relation to forest management options to be launched in four EU countries.
With expert support and modelling tools, wood market scenarios were formulated, disclosing potential impacts of alternative bioeconomy developments on wood demands and mitigation contribution from the wood-based bioeconomy. These included selected end uses of wood products and bioenergy and quantified their associated wood demands and impacts on harvest levels (D5.1). Additionally, the project has established a detailed data exchange protocol for GLOBIOM-G4M-X and national models (CBMs, Heureka), for cross-scale interfacing of EU and the National Policy Modelling toolbox.
The collection of policies related to EU forests has led to the creation of a policy tracker database that facilitates tracking of policy progress along the project lifetime and consistent consideration of policies into pathways. To model these pathways, the project team and stakeholders have also co-created three storylines towards climate neutrality, which form the archetypes of alternative scenarios for EU forests and forest-based bioeconomy.
Deliverables and data are available through https://www.forestnavigator.eu/resources/(si apre in una nuova finestra)
The early release of a deadwood map, part of the Forest4Model Datacube, is a unique source of spatially explicit data for carbon and biodiversity monitoring, national reporting, and strategic planning.
The new forest modelling engine I3PGmiX has the potential to deliver unprecedented contribution to the understanding of changes in forest growth under climate change, incl. impacts of increasing natural disturbances. By identifying EU regions and forest types in need of adaptation measures or investments, this modelling work supports the implementation of the EU Adaptation Strategy.
The wood market scenarios, combining innovative stakeholder interviews and modelling approaches, present demand trajectories for specific wood-based product demands and their impacts on forest harvest. The findings are fundamental for assessing mitigation opportunities through wood use and their impacts on forest carbon and biodiversity and disclosing future business opportunities in the sector, like the growth of wood use in constructions or textiles.
The new forest modelling engine I3PGmiX has the potential to deliver unprecedented contribution to the understanding of changes in forest growth under climate change, incl. impacts of increasing natural disturbances. By identifying EU regions and forest types in need of adaptation measures or investments, this modelling work supports the implementation of the EU Adaptation Strategy.
The wood market scenarios, combining innovative stakeholder interviews and modelling approaches, present demand trajectories for specific wood-based product demands and their impacts on forest harvest. The findings are fundamental for assessing mitigation opportunities through wood use and their impacts on forest carbon and biodiversity and disclosing future business opportunities in the sector, like the growth of wood use in constructions or textiles.