LAnd use and MAnagement modelling for SUStainable governance

Project Information

LAMASUS

Grant agreement ID: 101060423

DOI

10.3030/101060423

EC signature date 7 June 2022

Start date 1 September 2022

End date 30 November 2026

Funded under

• Food, Bioeconomy Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment

Total cost

€ 5 216 588,58

EU contribution

€ 4 995 355,83

Coordinated by

INTERNATIONALES INSTITUT FUER ANGEWANDTE SYSTEMANALYSE
Austria

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - LAMASUS (LAnd use and MAnagement modelling for SUStainable governance)

Reporting period: 2024-03-01 to 2025-08-31

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

As part of the EU Green Deal and the EU Climate Law, the EU has set itself a binding target of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. The land use sector plays a key role in this endeavour through carbon sequestration, as it is the only sector readily available to compensate for the unabated greenhouse gas emissions from other sectors.
The project will provide a novel governance model and tools to build sound policies for the transition required by the EU Green Deal. LAMASUS builds evidence through a continuously updated high-resolution database of land-use, land-management, and policies. We focus on understanding the role of agricultural and forest policies in land-use dynamics, along with their economic and environmental impacts. This knowledge supports an integrated Modelling Toolbox for developing, assessing, and monitoring land-related policies across various geographical scales. A multilevel-codesign platform with a user-friendly, web-based interface will enable dialogue among land users, policymakers, and other stakeholders and guide the formulation and implementation of Green Deal policies (LAMASUS Concept)

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

Open-access databases (https://www.lamasus.eu/datasets-2/). The land-use and management (LUM) geodatabase beta version contains two parts:
1) an annual 2000-2018 time series of Corine land cover maps at 1km2 resolution, consistent with European national and regional statistics,
2) a high-resolution, EU-wide LUM map covering cropland, grassland, forest, and urban land-management classes for 2018. The geodatabase was created after reviewing existing datasets and methodologies and collecting data requirements for LAMASUS’ forward-looking and historical policy models. A preliminary set of four LUM classes was presented to the Stakeholder Board (SB), which led to the finalisation of the land-use management classes methodology. Validation work using the Geo-Wiki tool and diverse stakeholder groups is ongoing.
The beta version of an agriculture and forest policy database captures existing policy measures related to these land uses. A technical framework for harmonised and regional data and its handling was developed upon reviewing existing frameworks, databases, and policy measures (D3.1).

Completed a policy review. A comprehensive picture of the complex landscape of land use and land-management policies has been compiled after mapping related policies from 1992 to 2022 in the European Union. An accompanying policy tracker and a research paper, which incorporates stakeholder feedback are submitted for publication.
Stakeholders provided input through the SB and Policy Advisory Board (PAB). Our SB (https://www.lamasus.eu/stakeholders/stakeholders-board/) provided detailed input during the 1st in-person workshop on land use and land management categorization. Stakeholders also provided their views on land use decision-making across countries and roles. The PAB (https://www.lamasus.eu/stakeholders/policy-advisory-board/) provided feedback and input for key output during biannual meetings. Summaries are available on above links.

Empirical studies enhance the understanding and modelling of agricultural dynamics and land-use patterns across Europe. Partners created prototypes of the planned empirical land use management dynamics studies, including an assessment of EU subsidies on land use and land use and weather influences on French pesticide use. A study estimating the transition to organic farming for German farms was completed, which integrates farm-level land-use models. A paper assessing the land-use changes across Europe and high-resolution modelling of land-use management has been submitted for publication.

Advances towards later project outcomes. A detailed simulation protocol was created, outlining modelling efforts on carbon, biodiversity, and economic impacts across land-use and management classes and modelling teams. The ensuing simulations will project scenarios to 2070 under high and low climate impact scenarios. A concept of the LAMASUS Modelling Toolbox was produced, integrating diverse policy models for comprehensive sectoral coverage, from agriculture and forestry to the broader economy and spanning spatial scales. This toolbox includes previously unaddressed aspects of carbon, biodiversity, and sustainability. Moreover, essential components and the LAMASUS Portal’s design and architecture were developed.

Collaborating with BrightSpace on a novel baseline scenario. During workshops with BrightSpace project partners and specialists from the OECD, World Bank, and JRC, gaps in baseline reporting across the EU were identified. Early baseline scenarios to enhance model alignment and support policy debates are in joint development. To this effort, key drivers of these scenarios were discussed with land users and policymakers during the 2nd stakeholder workshop. All public deliverables are available at https://www.lamasus.eu/resources/

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

Improved LUM data resolutions. The developed LUM geodatabase has unprecedented spatial (1km²), temporal (annual), and thematic (detailed management classes) resolutions. This database incorporates a variety of data sources, including earth observation (remote sensing, drones, in-situ measurements, citizen observatories) and statistical data.

Established a detailed EU-wide policy database of agricultural and forestry-related payments, and quantitative proxies such as forest rents and regulations, capturing the influence of various EU policies over the last two decades. This database provides detailed information at grid and NUTS levels, enhancing policy impact assessments across the EU.

Developed a simulation protocol that accounts for changes in land management practices beyond traditional land cover-based assessments. This protocol incorporates impact response functions, which assess effects on soil and peat carbon, biomass, greenhouse gas emissions, energy budgets, and biodiversity across key management categories, including organic farming and climate-smart forestry. Engaged extensively with local and EU stakeholders, informing land-use classifications and setting baselines for EU agricultural and forestry policies. A beta version of the LAMASUS portal is now available, facilitating stakeholder interactions through the Geo-Wiki platform.

LAMASUS Concept