Vetting Implicit Normativity in Climate Economics

Description du projet

Améliorer l’objectivité et la fiabilité des modèles d’évaluation intégrée du changement climatique

Les modèles d’évaluation intégrée (MEI) répondent à des questions importantes sur le changement climatique, en examinant les interactions entre, d’une part, le développement humain et les choix sociétaux et, d’autre part, le monde naturel, ainsi que l’influence des premiers sur le dernier. Ils visent à générer des informations pertinentes au niveau politique sur les changements environnementaux mondiaux et les questions de développement durable. Ils impliquent souvent d’émettre des hypothèses normatives: des hypothèses sur les valeurs auxquelles les individus et les communautés devraient adhérer. Ces hypothèses sont intrinsèquement subjectives et incertaines. Fort du soutien du programme Actions Marie Skłodowska-Curie, le projet VINCE élaborera un nouveau modèle de recherche sur les MEI qui permettra de créer une feuille de route visant à identifier les meilleures approches concernant les hypothèses normatives, dans le but d’améliorer la conception, l’évaluation et l’utilisation des MEI en vue de renforcer la fiabilité et l’objectivité de ces derniers.

Objectif

The project addresses the inherent presence of value judgments in current integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change impacts. Though widely used to inform public policy, many aspects of IAM design and use require making assumptions of an implicitly normative nature: assumptions that are ultimately about the values that individuals and communities ought to pursue. This raises a host of philosophical and methodological questions for which an interdisciplinary approach is needed: which actors and in which contexts – scientists at the model design stage, policy makers at the decision stage, etc.– should be in charge of making the normative choices that IAMs require? What practices and protocols are best suited to facilitate the recognition of normative assumptions in IAMs, the oversight by experts and stakeholders, and (if possible) the resolution of the uncertainty that surrounds them? To answer these questions, the project will first propose a taxonomy of implicitly normative assumptions in IAMs. Then, for each type identified, it will aim to determine which of several approaches is best suited to deal with that type of normativity. The resulting account will be a new model of IAM research that indicates how one ought to proceed in concrete contexts of IAM design, assessment and use. To achieve these objectives, Dr. Nappo will receive crucial training at Politecnico di Milano. Under the co-supervision of a philosopher of science and of a climate economist, he will integrate his demonstrated competences in the epistemology of scientific modelling and climate change ethics with new skills, which include first-hand experience with IAM modelling practices and grasp of their mathematical underpinnings. This training will allow Dr. Nappo to not only advance the literature on IAM normativity significantly beyond its current limits, but to also contribute to making IAM research more reliable and objective through an effective dissemination and exploitation plan.