WP1 and WP2 were completed during the outgoing phase at the associated partner organisation. To achieve WP1, a scoping review was first undertaken to examine the extent and nature of research activities pertaining to the use of formal and computational modelling to predict, explain and influence health behaviours unfolding at the within-person level. We synthesised methodological steps taken by researchers in the published literature and generated a set of initial ‘best practice’ modelling recommendations. The scoping review was published in the journal Health Psychology Review. In addition, since formal and computational modelling has been used for decades in other scientific disciplines, we also took a broader perspective and conducted another scoping review in which we synthesised modelling guidance from diverse disciplines (e.g. psychology, engineering, biology, physics). The second scoping review has been submitted for publication and is available as a pre-print. The two scoping reviews (and the ongoing discussions with the interdisciplinary group of collaborating researchers) informed the next steps of the research.
As part of WP1, we conducted an informal theory review and a series of linked stakeholder interviews with researchers, policymakers, stop smoking practitioners, and people with lived experience. We drew on these diverse knowledge sources to iteratively develop a conceptual model of lapse risk in smokers attempting to stop (also referred to as a ‘prototheory’). In WP2, we translated the prototheory into a series of difference equations which were implemented in R code. We conducted a series of computer simulations to examine if the formal and computational model could produce the empirical phenomena which it set out to explain (i.e. relapse, prolapse, abstinence). A paper describing the development and initial evaluation of the formal and computational model of lapse risk has been submitted for publication and is available as a pre-print. The R code underpinning the formal and computational model is openly available via GitHub. We also wrote a magazine article to describe how we worked together - integrating know-how from health psychology and mathematics/modelling - to translate the prototheory into a formal and computational model. The magazine article is available in The European Health Psychologist.
During the incoming phase at the beneficiary, a study protocol was developed for WP3 and ethical approval was obtained. We have initiated data collection for WP3: we are in the process of collecting Ecological Momentary Assessment and wearable sensor data in smokers’ daily lives. We will fit the formal model to the empirical data to examine its goodness-of-fit and predictive success.
