Pathways of resilience and evasion of tipping in ecosystems

Project Information

Resilience

Grant agreement ID: 101071417

DOI

10.3030/101071417

EC signature date 29 March 2023

Start date 1 April 2023

End date 31 March 2029

Funded under

• European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 9 848 970,00

EU contribution

€ 9 848 970,00

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITEIT UTRECHT
Netherlands

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (36)

Multi-front dynamics in spatially inhomogeneous Allen-Cahn equations

Author(s): Robbin Bastiaansen, Arjen Doelman, Tasso J. Kaper
Published in: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Issue 489, 2026, ISSN 0167-2789
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.PHYSD.2026.135139

Vegetation pattern formation induced by local growth outpacing susceptibility to non-local competition

Author(s): Jelle van der Voort, Ricardo Martinez-Garcia, Arjen Doelman
Published in: Journal of Theoretical Biology, Issue 626, 2026, ISSN 0022-5193
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.JTBI.2026.112441

How spatiotemporal dynamics can enhance ecosystem resilience

Author(s): Pablo Moreno-Spiegelberg, Max Rietkerk, Damià Gomila
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Issue 122, 2025, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/PNAS.2412522122

Water limitation regulates positive feedback of increased ecosystem respiration

Author(s): Qin Zhang; Chuixiang Yi; Georgia Destouni; Georg Wohlfahrt; Yakov Kuzyakov; Runze Li; Eric Kutter; Deliang Chen; Max Rietkerk; Stefano Manzoni; Zhenkun Tian; George Hendrey; Wei Fang; Nir Krakauer; Gustaf Hugelius; Jerker Jarsjo; Jianxu Han; Shiguo Xu
Published in: Nature ecology and evolution, 2024, ISSN 2397-334X
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41559-024-02501-w

Les Canards de Turing

Author(s): Theodore Vo, Arjen Doelman, Tasso J. Kaper
Published in: SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems, Issue 24, 2025, ISSN 1536-0040
Publisher: Society for Industrial & Applied Mathematics (SIAM)
DOI: 10.1137/24M1690722

Indications of Ongoing Noise‐Tipping of a Bifurcating River System

Author(s): Astrid Blom, Clàudia Ylla Arbós, M. Kifayath Chowdhury, Arjen Doelman, Max Rietkerk, Ralph M. J. Schielen
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 51, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL111846

Basal ice but not summer temperature affects land surface greenness in parts of the landscape in high Arctic tundra

Author(s): Lia Lechler, Åshild Ønvik Pedersen, Isla H Myers-Smith, Mathilde Le Moullec, Leif Egil Loe, Brage Bremset Hansen, Larissa T Beumer, Virve Ravolainen
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 20, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/AE2141

Widespread forest-savanna coexistence but limited bistability at a landscape scale in Central Africa

Author(s): Aart Zwaan, Arie Staal, Mariska te Beest, Max Rietkerk
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 19, 2024, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8cef

A global analysis of how human infrastructure squeezes sandy coasts

Author(s): Eva M. Lansu, Valérie C. Reijers, Solveig Höfer, Arjen Luijendijk, Max Rietkerk, Martin J. Wassen, Evert Jan Lammerts, Tjisse van der Heide
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 15, 2024, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44659-0

Ecological Feedbacks in the Earth System

Author(s): Eugene J. Murphy, Jessica J. Williams, Isla H. Myers‐Smith, Vivienne P. Groner, David M. P. Jacoby, Lester Kwiatkowski, Jess Melbourne‐Thomas, Emma Ransome, Cristina Banks‐Leite, Laurent Bopp, Marion Gehlen, Eileen E. Hofmann, Babette Hoogakker, Nadine M. Johnston, Yadvinder Malhi, Emma L. Cavan
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 14, 2026, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2025EF006478

Vegetation Patterning Can Both Impede and Trigger Critical Transitions from Savanna to Grassland

Author(s): Jelle van der Voort, Mara Baudena, Ehud Meron, Max Rietkerk, Arjen Doelman
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADC3AB

A connectivity threshold between grass patches amplifies coastal dune formation

Author(s): Paul M. J. Berghuis, Valérie C. Reijers, Johan van de Koppel, Angeles G. Mayor, Daniil J. P. Scheifes, Max Rietkerk, Tjisse van der Heide
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 17, 2026, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-026-70552-7

The formation of periodic three-body orbits for Newtonian systems

Author(s): Simon Portegies Zwart, Arjen Doelman, Jelmer Sein
Published in: Astronomy & Astrophysics, Issue 707, 2026, ISSN 0004-6361
Publisher: EDP Sciences
DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/202558230

Snow persistence lowers and delays peak NDVI, the vegetation index that underpins Arctic greening analyses

Author(s): Calum G Hoad, Isla H Myers-Smith, Jeff T Kerby, Claudia Colesie, Jakob J Assmann
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 20, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADACFF

Guerrilla clonal growth strategy leads to amorphous pattern formation in a drylands vegetation model

Author(s): Andrea Davin, Jost von Hardenberg, Paul M.J. Berghuis, Ángeles G. Mayor, Enrico Magazzino, Max Rietkerk, Frits Veerman, Mara Baudena
Published in: Ecological Modelling, Issue 515, 2026, ISSN 0304-3800
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.ECOLMODEL.2026.111510

Can spatial self-organization inhibit evolutionary adaptation?

Author(s): B. K. Bera, O. Tzuk, J. J. R. Bennett, U. Dieckmann, E. Meron
Published in: Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Issue 22, 2025, ISSN 1742-5662
Publisher: The Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/RSIF.2024.0454

Plant diversity dynamics over space and time in a warming Arctic

Author(s): Mariana García Criado, Isla H. Myers-Smith, Anne D. Bjorkman, Sarah C. Elmendorf, Signe Normand, Peter Aastrup, Rien Aerts, Juha M. Alatalo, Lander Baeten, Robert G. Björk, Mats P. Björkman, Noémie Boulanger-Lapointe, Ethan E. Butler, Elisabeth J. Cooper, J. Hans C. Cornelissen, Gergana N. Daskalova, Belen Fadrique, Bruce C. Forbes, Greg H. R. Henry, Robert D. Hollister, Toke Thomas Høye, Ida Bomholt Dyrholm Jacobsen, Annika K. Jägerbrand, Ingibjörg S. Jónsdóttir, Elina Kaarlejärvi, Olga Khitun, Kari Klanderud, Tiina H. M. Kolari, Simone I. Lang, Nicolas Lecomte, Jonathan Lenoir, Petr Macek, Julie Messier, Anders Michelsen, Ulf Molau, Robert Muscarella, Marie-Louise Nielsen, Matteo Petit Bon, Eric Post, Katrine Raundrup, Riikka Rinnan, Christian Rixen, Ingvild Ryde, Josep M. Serra-Diaz, Gabriela Schaepman-Strub, Niels M. Schmidt, Franziska Schrodt, Sofie Sjögersten, Manuel J. Steinbauer, Lærke Stewart, Beate Strandberg, Anne Tolvanen, Craig E. Tweedie, Mark Vellend
Published in: Nature, Issue 642, 2025, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-025-08946-8

Time‐lapse cameras bridge the gap between remote sensing and in situ observations of tundra phenology

Author(s): Geerte Fälthammar de Jong, Elise Gallois, Joseph S. Boyle, Maude Grenier, Isla H. Myers‐Smith, Anne Bjorkman
Published in: Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Issue 16, 2025, ISSN 2041-210X
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.70188

Vegetation pattern formation and community assembly under drying climate trends

Author(s): Michel A. Ferré, Induja Pavithran, Bidesh K. Bera, Hannes Uecker, Ehud Meron
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 35, 2025, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: AIP Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0241537

Deformations of acid-mediated invasive tumors in a model with Allee effect

Author(s): Paul Carter, Arjen Doelman, Peter van Heijster, Daniel Levy, Philip Maini, Erin Okey, Paige Yeung
Published in: arXiv:2408.16172 [math.AP], 2024, ISSN 2331-8422
Publisher: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2408.16172

Deformations of acid-mediated invasive tumors in a model with Allee effect

Author(s): Paul Carter, Arjen Doelman, Peter van Heijster, Daniel Levy, Philip Maini, Erin Okey, Paige Yeung
Published in: Journal of Mathematical Biology, Issue 90, 2025, ISSN 0303-6812
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1007/S00285-025-02209-W

Principles for guiding future research on resilience and tipping points

Author(s): Chuixiang Yi, Max Rietkerk, John M Anderies, Deliang Chen, Vasilis Dakos, Paul D L Ritchie, Juan C Rocha, Manjana Milkoreit, Courtney Quinn
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 20, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADB7F3

Contrasting thermophilization among forests, grasslands and alpine summits

Author(s): Kai Yue, Pieter Vangansbeke, Isla H. Myers-Smith, Donald M. Waller, Kris Verheyen, Markus Bernhardt-Römermann, Lander Baeten, Ingmar R. Staude, Anne D. Bjorkman, Radim Hédl, Christopher Andrews, Elena Barni, Thomas Becker, Antoine Becker-Scarpitta, José-Luis Benito-Alonso, Jonathan Bennie, Imre Berki, Volker Blüml, Jörg Brunet, James M. Bullock, Hans Van Calster, Michele Carbognani, Markéta Chudomelová, Déborah Closset-Kopp, Pavel Dan Turtureanu, Gergana N. Daskalova, Guillaume Decocq, Jan Dick, Martin Diekmann, Thomas Dirnböck, Tomasz Durak, Ove Eriksson, Brigitta Erschbamer, Bente Jessen Graae, Thilo Heinken, Martin Hermy, Peter Horchler, Ute Jandt, Bogdan Jaroszewicz, Róbert Kanka, Jozef Kollár, Martin Kopecký, Thomas Kudernatsch, Andrea Lamprecht, Jonathan Lenoir, Martin Macek, Marek Malicki, František Máliš, Ottar Michelsen, Fraser Mitchell, Tobias Naaf, Thomas A. Nagel, Miles Newman, Adrian C. Newton, Lena Nicklas, Ludovica Oddi, Anna Orczewska, Simone Orsenigo, Adrienne Ortmann-Ajkai, Jan den Ouden, Harald Pauli, George Peterken, Petr Petřík, Remigiusz Pielech, Mihai Puşcaş, Christophe Randin, Kamila Reczyńska, Christian Rixen, Fride Høistad Schei, Wolfgang Schmidt, Jan Šebesta, Alina Stachurska-Swakon, Tibor Standovár, Krzysztof Świerkosz, Balázs Teleki, Jean-Paul Theurillat, Tudor-Mihai Ursu, Thomas Vanneste, Mark Vellend, Philippine Vergeer, Ondřej Vild, Luis Villar, Pascal Vittoz, Manuela Winkler, Sonja Wipf, Fuzhong Wu, Shengmin Zhang, Pieter De Frenne
Published in: Nature, Issue 653, 2026, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-025-09622-7

Tundra Vegetation Community Type, Not Microclimate, Controls Asynchrony of Above‐ and Below‐Ground Phenology

Author(s): Elise C. Gallois, Isla H. Myers‐Smith, Colleen M. Iversen, Verity G. Salmon, Laura L. Turner, Ruby An, Sarah C. Elmendorf, Courtney G. Collins, Madelaine J. R. Anderson, Amanda Young, Lisa Pilkinton, Gesche Blume‐Werry, Maude Grenier, Geerte Fälthammar‐de Jong, Inge H. J. Althuizen, Casper T. Christiansen, Simone I. Lang, Cassandra Elphinstone, Greg H. R. Henry, Nicola Rammell, Michelle C. Mack, Craig See, Christian Rixen, Robert D. Hollister
Published in: Global Change Biology, Issue 31, 2025, ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.70153

Rethinking Tipping Points in Spatial Ecosystems

Author(s): Swarnendu Banerjee, Mara Baudena, Paul Carter, Robbin Bastiaansen, Arjen Doelman, Max Rietkerk
Published in: The American Naturalist, Issue 207, 2026, ISSN 0003-0147
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
DOI: 10.1086/739177

Cool topoclimates promote cold-adapted plant diversity in temperate mountain forests

Author(s): Jeremy Borderieux, Emiel De Lombaerde, Karen De Pauw, Pieter Sanczuk, Pieter Vangansbeke, Thomas Vanneste, Pieter De Frenne, Jean-Claude Gégout, Josep Serra-Diaz
Published in: Peer Community Journal, Issue 5, 2025, ISSN 2804-3871
Publisher: Peer Community In
DOI: 10.24072/PCJOURNAL.519

Plant diversity dynamics over space and time in a warming Arctic

Author(s): Mariana García Criado, Isla H. Myers-Smith, Anne D. Bjorkman, Sarah C. Elmendorf, Signe Normand, Peter Aastrup, Rien Aerts, Juha M. Alatalo, Lander Baeten, Robert G. Björk, Mats P. Björkman, Noémie Boulanger-Lapointe, Ethan E. Butler, Elisabeth J. Cooper, J. Hans C. Cornelissen, Gergana N. Daskalova, Belen Fadrique, Bruce C. Forbes, Greg H. R. Henry, Robert D. Hollister, Toke Thomas Høye, Ida Bomholt Dyrholm Jacobsen, Annika K. Jägerbrand, Ingibjörg S. Jónsdóttir, Elina Kaarlejärvi, Olga Khitun, Kari Klanderud, Tiina H. M. Kolari, Simone I. Lang, Nicolas Lecomte, Jonathan Lenoir, Petr Macek, Julie Messier, Anders Michelsen, Ulf Molau, Robert Muscarella, Marie-Louise Nielsen, Matteo Petit Bon, Eric Post, Katrine Raundrup, Riikka Rinnan, Christian Rixen, Ingvild Ryde, Josep M. Serra-Diaz, Gabriela Schaepman-Strub, Niels M. Schmidt, Franziska Schrodt, Sofie Sjögersten, Manuel J. Steinbauer, Lærke Stewart, Beate Strandberg, Anne Tolvanen, Craig E. Tweedie, Mark Vellend
Published in: Nature, 2025, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-025-08946-8

Traveling vegetation-herbivore waves can sustain ecosystems threatened by droughts and population growth

Author(s): Joydeep Singha, Hannes Uecker, Ehud Meron
Published in: arXiv:2410.04305 [q-bio.PE], 2024, ISSN 2331-8422
Publisher: Cornell University
DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2410.04305

Ambiguity of early warning signals for climate tipping points

Author(s): Max Rietkerk, Vanessa Skiba, Els Weinans, Raphaël Hébert, Thomas Laepple
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 15, 2025, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41558-025-02328-8

Travelling pulses on three spatial scales in a Klausmeier-type vegetation-autotoxicity model

Author(s): Paul Carter, Arjen Doelman, Annalisa Iuorio, Frits Veerman
Published in: Nonlinearity, Issue 37, 2024, ISSN 0951-7715
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1361-6544/ad6112

A review of dynamics in spatial savanna models

Author(s): Xenia Sterl, Els Weinans, Anna van der Kaaden, Arjen Doelman, Max Rietkerk
Published in: Ecological Modelling, Issue 517, 2026, ISSN 0304-3800
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.ECOLMODEL.2026.111621

The evasion of tipping: Pattern formation near a Turing-fold bifurcation

Author(s): Dock Staal, Arjen Doelman
Published in: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Issue 486, 2026, ISSN 0167-2789
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.PHYSD.2025.135019

Phenotypic plasticity: A missing element in the theory of vegetation pattern formation

Author(s): Jamie J. R. Bennett, Bidesh K. Bera, Michel Ferré, Hezi Yizhaq, Stephan Getzin, Ehud Meron
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Issue 120, 2023, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/PNAS.2311528120

Borealisation of Plant Communities in the Arctic Is Driven by Boreal‐Tundra Species

Author(s): Mariana García Criado, Isabel C. Barrio, James D. M. Speed, Anne D. Bjorkman, Sarah C. Elmendorf, Isla H. Myers‐Smith, Rien Aerts, Juha M. Alatalo, Katlyn R. Betway‐May, Robert G. Björk, Mats P. Björkman, Daan Blok, Elisabeth J. Cooper, J. Hans C. Cornelissen, William A. Gould, Ragnhild Gya, Greg H. R. Henry, Luise Hermanutz, Robert D. Hollister, Annika K. Jägerbrand, Ingibjörg S. Jónsdóttir, Elina Kaarlejärvi, Olga Khitun, Simone I. Lang, Petr Macek, Jeremy L. May, Anders Michelsen, Signe Normand, Siri L. Olsen, Eric Post, Riikka Rinnan, Niels Martin Schmidt, Sofie Sjogersten, Anne Tolvanen, Joachim P. Töpper, Andrew Trant, Vigdis Vandvik, Tage Vowles
Published in: Ecology Letters, Issue 28, 2025, ISSN 1461-023X
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1111/ELE.70209

Spatial and temporal scale–dependent feedbacks govern dynamics of biocrusts in drylands

Author(s): Jingyao Sun, Kailiang Yu, Max Rietkerk, Ning Chen, Hongxia Zhang, Guang Song, Xinrong Li
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Issue 122, 2025, ISSN 0027-8424
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/PNAS.2424836122

Traveling vegetation–herbivore waves may sustain ecosystems threatened by droughts and population growth

Author(s): Joydeep Singha, Hannes Uecker, Ehud Meron
Published in: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Issue 483, 2026, ISSN 0167-2789
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.PHYSD.2025.134914

Other (1)

Plant community borealization in the Arctic is driven by boreal-tundra boundary species

Author(s): Mariana García Criado, Isabel Barrio, James Speed, Isla Myers-Smith, Anne Bjorkman, Rien Aerts, Juha Alatalo, Katlyn Betway-May, Robert Björk, Mats Björkman, Daan Blok, Elisabeth Cooper, J. Hans Cornelissen, Sarah Elmendorf, William Gould, Ragnhild Gya, Greg Henry, Luise Hermanutz, Robert Hollister, Annika Jägerbrand, Ingibjörg Svala Jónsdóttir, Elina Kaarlejärvi, Olga Khitun, Simone Lang, Petr Macek, Jeremy May, Anders Michelsen, Signe Normand, Siri Olsen, Eric Post, Riikka Rinnan, Niels Schmidt, Sofie Sjögersten, Anne Tolvanen, Joachim Töpper, Andrew Trant, Vigdis Vandvik, Tage Vowles
Published in: 2025
Publisher: California Digital Library (CDL)
DOI: 10.32942/X2534Q