Description du projet
Identification des processus de nucléation des tremblements de terre pour les failles à proximité des villes
Les tremblements de terre peuvent avoir des amplitudes et des durées différentes, et certains des grands tremblements de terre sont dépourvus de tout signal précurseur détectable. Le projet QUAKEHUNTER, financé par l’UE, vise à étudier les processus de nucléation des tremblements de terre afin de détecter les signaux précurseurs des tremblements de terre modérés à importants. Il utilisera l’intelligence artificielle pour identifier ces processus pour les failles actives à proximité des zones sujettes aux tremblements de terre, en particulier la faille nord-anatolienne dans le nord-ouest de la Turquie. Le projet déterminera l’approche et l’instrumentation optimales pour comprendre les processus de nucléation des tremblements de terre et déduire les conditions de faille dans lesquelles ils se produisent.
Objectif
A longstanding, lingering question in geoscience is whether earthquakes show a precursory nucleation process. Precursory signals from well-recorded large earthquakes displayed widely different amplitude or duration, and some large earthquakes displayed no detectable precursors. The main objectives of QUAKE-HUNTER are (1) to determine the most effective approaches to detect fault-related transients preceding moderate to large earthquakes, and (2) to monitor seismic and aseismic processes and infer from them the fault conditions under which earthquake nucleation processes emerge, and the optimal instrumentation required to capture them. To achieve these, we will develop different methodologies based on a combination of supervised and unsupervised artificial intelligence to identify retrospectively earthquake nucleation processes for active faults near earthquake-threatened urban areas. The ultimate goal will be to test the performance of this novel earthquake forecasting methodology in near-real time.
We will analyze data from north-western Turkey, where the North Anatolian Fault is overdue for a magnitude M>7 earthquake directly adjacent to the Istanbul megalopolis with its >15M inhabitants. The groundbreaking part of QUAKE-HUNTER is that if earthquake nucleation processes could be discerned prior to large earthquakes in the Marmara region, then automated near-real-time detection could provide extended warning and preparation time. If successful, this could become in the future an essential ingredient for activating civil protection protocols to mitigate seismic risk. QUAKE-HUNTER aims at having a strong scientific impact on earthquake physics: we will be able to refine our knowledge on the physics of earthquakes shortly before their start, as well as the fault conditions favoring the identification of earthquake precursors. The first-time testing of such methodology in real-time will have a strong societal impact, potentially advancing earthquakes forecasting.
Champ scientifique
Mots‑clés
Programme(s)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Thème(s)
Régime de financement
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsInstitution d’accueil
14473 POTSDAM
Allemagne