Project description
Understanding the impact of the Arctic on the global climate
The Arctic climate plays a crucial role as it influences the wildlife and plant life within the Arctic Circle, as well as various environments connected by sea ice and nearby currents. Unfortunately, projections indicate that by the end of this century, temperatures might escalate to a level where Arctic sea ice could melt and fail to reconstitute, leading to unparalleled detriment to global climates. The ERC-funded A3M-transform project has set its sights on investigating and comprehending the influence of Arctic air and water on the worldwide climate via air and water currents. This knowledge will enhance our readiness to grasp and anticipate the future repercussions of changes to the Arctic and its amplifying effect on climate change.
Objective
We expect that temperatures over the wintertime central Arctic will increase by 20 degrees - and precipitation will double - by the end of this century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. Arctic sea-ice is projected to completely melt in summer within the next decades, and may cease to form in winter in the coming century.
The traditional framework to understand this Arctic amplification of climate change focuses on the steady-state mean Arctic climate. However, the Arctic wintertime atmosphere has two preferred states that are largely controlled by initially warm and moist air masses that cool and dry after being advected from lower latitudes. We understand little about how these air masses cool and dry, and what controls the sudden transition from a cloudy state to a clear state along their trajectory. This lack of understanding is a major obstacle to scientific progress and improved climate models.
To achieve groundbreaking progress, I will analyze the warm, moist poleward flows, cold, dry equatorward flows and the air-mass transformations that lead from one to the other. I will observe and model such air masses along their trajectories using recently developed air-mass following balloons and customized model setups.
Cooling of air in the Arctic mirrors heating in the Tropics. Together, these drive the global atmospheric circulation, but the Arctic’s role in this picture has largely been overlooked. My team will investigate how the Arctic couples to the global climate system using a novel concept of averaging the atmospheric circulation. We will focus on how and why both the heat and moisture content and the amount of air transported into and out of the Arctic change in a warming world and contribute and respond to Arctic amplification.
A3M-transform will deliver a step change in understanding the air-mass transformation processes that shape Arctic amplification and transform our view of how the Arctic couples to the global climate system.
Fields of science
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic zones
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologyatmospheric circulation
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
Programme(s)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Topic(s)
Funding Scheme
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsHost institution
27570 Bremerhaven
Germany