Projektbeschreibung
Verständnis der Auswirkungen der Arktis auf das globale Klima
Das arktische Klima spielt eine entscheidende Rolle, denn es beeinflusst die Wildtier- und Pflanzenwelt innerhalb des nördlichen Polarkreises sowie verschiedene Umgebungen, die durch Meereis und nahe gelegene Strömungen miteinander verbunden sind. Leider deuten Projektionen darauf hin, dass die Temperaturen bis zum Ende dieses Jahrhunderts so weit ansteigen könnten, dass das arktische Meereis schmilzt und sich nicht mehr regenerieren kann, was zu einer beispiellosen Beeinträchtigung des Weltklimas führen würde. Das Team des vom Europäischen Forschungsrat finanzierten Projekts A3M-transform hat sich zum Ziel gesetzt, den Einfluss der arktischen Luft und des arktischen Wassers auf das weltweite Klima über Luft- und Wasserströmungen zu untersuchen und zu verstehen. Dieses Wissen wird unsere Bereitschaft verbessern, die zukünftigen Auswirkungen von Veränderungen in der Arktis und ihre verstärkende Wirkung auf den Klimawandel zu erfassen und zu antizipieren.
Ziel
We expect that temperatures over the wintertime central Arctic will increase by 20 degrees - and precipitation will double - by the end of this century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. Arctic sea-ice is projected to completely melt in summer within the next decades, and may cease to form in winter in the coming century.
The traditional framework to understand this Arctic amplification of climate change focuses on the steady-state mean Arctic climate. However, the Arctic wintertime atmosphere has two preferred states that are largely controlled by initially warm and moist air masses that cool and dry after being advected from lower latitudes. We understand little about how these air masses cool and dry, and what controls the sudden transition from a cloudy state to a clear state along their trajectory. This lack of understanding is a major obstacle to scientific progress and improved climate models.
To achieve groundbreaking progress, I will analyze the warm, moist poleward flows, cold, dry equatorward flows and the air-mass transformations that lead from one to the other. I will observe and model such air masses along their trajectories using recently developed air-mass following balloons and customized model setups.
Cooling of air in the Arctic mirrors heating in the Tropics. Together, these drive the global atmospheric circulation, but the Arctic’s role in this picture has largely been overlooked. My team will investigate how the Arctic couples to the global climate system using a novel concept of averaging the atmospheric circulation. We will focus on how and why both the heat and moisture content and the amount of air transported into and out of the Arctic change in a warming world and contribute and respond to Arctic amplification.
A3M-transform will deliver a step change in understanding the air-mass transformation processes that shape Arctic amplification and transform our view of how the Arctic couples to the global climate system.
Wissenschaftliches Gebiet
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic zones
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologyatmospheric circulation
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
Schlüsselbegriffe
Programm/Programme
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Thema/Themen
Finanzierungsplan
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsGastgebende Einrichtung
27570 Bremerhaven
Deutschland