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Stratospheric cOmposition in a changing CLIMate: drivers and mechanisms

Project description

Understanding stratospheric ozone impact on climate

Advancing weather and climate predictions requires a better understanding of the interaction between stratospheric composition and circulation, which is currently poorly represented in models. The ERC-funded SOCLIM project aims to enhance our understanding of the impact of stratospheric ozone and water vapour on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) to multi-decadal timescales. The project will use theory, observations, and models to investigate their roles as drivers of atmospheric circulation and their radiative effects on global climate. It will develop a chemistry-climate prediction system, employ models to quantify the impacts of climate change, and determine the contribution of stratospheric composition to global warming across various emission scenarios. If successful, this project will help reduce uncertainty in weather and climate predictions, as well as provide important information for future emission policies.

Objective

Progress towards more useful and accurate weather and climate predictions requires identifying predictability sources, as well as constraining the circulation response to climate change. While the stratosphere plays a key role in these aspects, efforts have largely focused on dynamical aspects, disregarding its chemical composition. Ozone and water vapour largely determine the stratospheric chemical composition, but also protect the biosphere from harmful UV radiation and contribute to the Greenhouse Effect. Despite advances in understanding the effects of Antarctic ozone depletion and recovery, impacts in Arctic and global stratosphere are not understood.
This is due to limited understanding of the complex interactions between stratospheric composition and circulation and their poor representation in models. The SOCLIM project will provide new understanding of the role of stratospheric ozone and water vapour as (1) source of predictability on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) time-scales, (2) drivers of atmospheric circulation and (3) radiative effects on global climate by using theory, observations and models. We will develop, for the first time, a chemistry-weather prediction
system to assess impacts on predictability. Then, we will use two independent chemistry-climate and other IPCC models to quantify impacts on climate change, via the influence of stratospheric composition on the atmospheric circulation response. Lastly, we will determine its contribution to global warming in a range of scenarios from unabated emissions to mitigation via geo-engineering. SOCLIM will provide new process-based understanding of stratospheric composition feedbacks on regional and global climate for a range of time
scales never explored before. If successful, it will contribute towards reducing uncertainty in weather and climate predictions, providing better constraints on the climatic impacts of anthropogenic emissions and delivering crucial information for future emission policies.

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Programme(s)

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Topic(s)

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Funding Scheme

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HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) ERC-2022-STG

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Host institution

AGENCIA ESTATAL CONSEJO SUPERIOR DE INVESTIGACIONES CIENTIFICAS
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 1 560 089,00
Address
CALLE SERRANO 117
28006 MADRID
Spain

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Region
Comunidad de Madrid Comunidad de Madrid Madrid
Activity type
Research Organisations
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Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 1 560 089,00

Beneficiaries (1)

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