Adaptation-oriented Seamless Predictions of European ClimaTe

Información del proyecto

ASPECT

Identificador del acuerdo de subvención: 101081460

DOI

10.3030/101081460

Fecha de la firma de la CE 22 Septiembre 2022

Fecha de inicio 1 Enero 2023

Fecha de finalización 31 Diciembre 2026

Financiado con arreglo a

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Coste total

€ 7 027 623,85

Aportación de la UE

€ 7 027 623,85

Coordinado por

BARCELONA SUPERCOMPUTING CENTER CENTRO NACIONAL DE SUPERCOMPUTACION
Spain

CORDIS proporciona enlaces a los documentos públicos y las publicaciones de los proyectos de los programas marco HORIZONTE.

Los enlaces a los documentos y las publicaciones de los proyectos del Séptimo Programa Marco, así como los enlaces a algunos tipos de resultados específicos, como conjuntos de datos y «software», se obtienen dinámicamente de OpenAIRE .

Resultado final

Documents, reports (5)

Data Management Plan and its updates (in M18, M36 and M47)

The document will outline how data will be managed during the project from an internal and external point of view. The DMP will include a table specifying how the data will be exploited and shared for verification and reuse. Updates to the DMP will be provided in M18, M36 and M47.

Communication, dissemination and exploitation plan, including social media strategy

Communication, dissemination and exploitation plan, including social media strategy.

First impact evaluation and update to communication, dissemination and exploitation plan
Report on annual multi-sector user forum

Report on annual multi-sector user forum. This report will be updated each year thereafter (months 18, 30, 46)

Rapid assessment of climate information user needs

Report on rapid assessment of climate information user needs from published literature (grey and peer-reviewed) and first multi-sector forum.

Publicaciones

Peer reviewed articles (33)

Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and observations

Autores: Markus G Donat, Rashed Mahmood, Pep Cos, Pablo Ortega and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Publicado en: Environmental Research: Climate, 2024, ISSN 2752-5295
Editor: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad5463

Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes

Autores: Carlos Delgado-Torres, Markus G Donat, Albert Soret, Nube González-Reviriego, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, An-Chi H, Nuria Pérez-Zanón, Margarida Samsó Cabré and Francisco J Doblas-Reyes
Publicado en: Enviromemntal research Letters, Edición 034031, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe1

Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?

Autores: Nick J. Dunstone, Doug M. Smith, Chris Atkinson, Andrew Colman, Chris Folland, Leon Hermanson, Sarah Ineson, Rachel Killick, Colin Morice, Nick Rayner, Melissa Seabrook, Adam A. Scaife
Publicado en: Atmospheric Science Letters, 2024, ISSN 1530-261X
Editor: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1002/asl.1254

CO2-induced climate change assessment for the extreme 2022 Pakistan rainfall using seasonal forecasts

Autores: Weisheimer, A; Palmer, TN; Leach, NJ; Allen, MR; Roberts, CD; Abid, MA
Publicado en: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2025, ISSN 2397-3722
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S41612-025-01136-3

Tropical Pacific Trends in the ECMWF Seasonal System and Implications for Predictions of the 2020–22 Triple-Dip La Niña

Autores: Michael Mayer, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Frederic Vitart, Steffen Tietsche
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición 38, 2025, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0467.1

Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts

Autores: Shirin Ermis and Nicholas J Leach and Fraser C Lott and Sarah N Sparrow and Antje Weisheimer
Publicado en: Environmental Research: Climate, Edición 035001, ISSN 2752-5295
Editor: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/AD4200

Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes

Autores: P De Luca; C Delgado-Torres; R Mahmood; M Samso-Cabre; M G Donat
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acf389

Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts

Autores: Nicholas J. Leach, Christopher D. Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Daniel Heathcote, Dann M. Mitchell, Vikki Thompson, Tim Palmer, Antje Weisheimer & Myles R. Allen
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 4530, 2024, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48280-

Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events

Autores: Liu, Yiling, Donat, Markus. G., England, Matthew. H., Alexander, Lisa. V., Hirsch, Annette L., Delgado-Torres, Carlos
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 6387, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42113-9

Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

Autores: Rashid, IU; Abid, MA; Osman, M; Kucharski, F; Ashfaq, M; Weisheimer, A; Almazroui, M; Torres-Alavez, JA; Afzaal, M
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, 2024, ISSN 1432-0894
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000174060

Advanced seasonal predictions for vine management based on bioclimatic indicators tailored to the wine sector

Autores: Chihchung Chou and Raül Marcos-Matamoros and Lluís Palma Garcia and Núria Pérez-Zanón and Marta Teixeira and Sara Silva and Natacha Fontes and Antonio Graça and Alessandro Dell'Aquila and Sandro Calmanti and Nube González-Reviriego
Publicado en: Climate Services, 2023, ISSN 2405-8807
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100343

Anomalously Warm European Summers Predicted More Accurately by Considering Sub‐Decadal North Atlantic Ocean Heat Accumulation

Autores: Lara Wallberg; Laura Suarez‐Gutierrez; Daniela Matei; Daniel Krieger; Wolfgang A. Müller
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, 2025, ISSN 1944-8007
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.3929/ETHZ-B-000735066

Urban Climate

Autores: Wang, Fuxing; Aldama Campino, Aitor; Belušić, Danijel; Amorim, Jorge Humberto; Ribeiro, Isabel; Wirehn, Lotten; Segersson, David; Doescher, Ralf; Navarra, Carlo; Neset, Tina-Simone; Lind, Petter
Publicado en: Urban Climate, 2025, ISSN 2212-0955
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.UCLIM.2025.102286

Skilful probabilistic medium‐range precipitation and temperature forecasts over Vietnam for the development of a future dengue early warning system

Autores: Main, L; Sparrow, S; Weisheimer, A; Wright, M
Publicado en: Meteorological Applications, 2024, ISSN 1469-8080
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/MET.2222

How Credibly Do CMIP6 Simulations Capture Historical Mean and Extreme Precipitation Changes?

Autores: Markus G. Donat, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Paolo De Luca, Rashed Mahmood, Pablo Ortega, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1944-8007
Editor: Wiley Open Access
DOI: 10.1029/2022GL102466C

Environmental Research Letters

Autores: Dario Nicolì; Silvio Gualdi; Panos J Athanasiadis
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADB59E

Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

Autores: Polkova I, Swingedouw D, Hermanson L, Köhl A, Stammer D, Smith D, Kröger J, Bethke I, Yang X, Zhang L, Nicolì D, Athanasiadis PJ, Karami MP, Pankatz K, Pohlmann H, Wu B, Bilbao R, Ortega P, Yang S, Sospedra-Alfonso R, Merryfield W, Kataoka T, Tatebe H, Im
Publicado en: Frontiers in Climate, Edición 1273770, 2023, ISSN 2624-9553
Editor: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1273770

Comparison of five strategies for seasonal prediction of bioclimatic indicators in the olive sector

Autores: Chihchung Chou; Raül Marcos-Matamoros; Javier López-Nevado; Silvia López-Feria; Nube González-Reviriego
Publicado en: Climate Services, Vol 30, Iss , Pp 100345- (2023), 2023, ISSN 2405-8807
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100345

Record Warmth of 2023 and 2024 was Highly Predictable and Resulted From ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave Anomalies

Autores: Eduardo Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth; Roberto Bilbao; Aaron Donohoe; Stefano Materia
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, 2025, ISSN 1944-8007
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2025GL115614

CSIndicators: Get tailored climate indicators for applications in your sector

Autores: Núria Pérez-Zanón; An-Chi Ho; Chihchung Chou; Llorenç Lledó; Raül Marcos-Matamoros; Eva Rifà; Nube González-Reviriego
Publicado en: Climate Services, Vol 30, Iss , Pp 100393- (2023), 2023, ISSN 2405-8807
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100393

Ocean–Atmosphere Feedbacks Key to NAO Decadal Predictability

Autores: Casey Patrizio; Panos Athanasiadis; Doug Smith; Dario Nicolì
Publicado en: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2025, ISSN 2397-3722
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-4868550/V1

The Relative Role of Indian and Pacific Tropical Heating as Seasonal Predictability Drivers for the North Atlantic Oscillation

Autores: Senan, R; Balmaseda, MA; Molteni, F; Stockdale, TN; Weisheimer, A; Johnson, S; Roberts, CD
Publicado en: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2024, ISSN 2169-8996
Editor: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2024JD041233

Advancing ocean monitoring and knowledge for societal benefit: the urgency to expand Argo to OneArgo by 2030

Autores: Virginie Thierry; Hervé Claustre; Orens Pasqueron de Fommervault; Nathalie Zilberman; Kenneth S. Johnson; Brian A. King; Susan E. Wijffels; Udaya T. V. S. Bhaskar; Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda; Mathieu Belbeoch; Marine Bollard; Jacqueline Boutin; Phillip Boyd; Romain Cancouët; Fei Chai; Stefano Ciavatta; Rich Crane; Sophie Cravatte; Sophie Cravatte; Giorgio Dall’Olmo; Damien Desbruyères; Paul J. Durack; Andrea J. Fassbender; Katja Fennel; Yosuke Fujii; Florent Gasparin; Alberto González-Santana; Claire Gourcuff; Alison Gray; Helene T. Hewitt; Steven R. Jayne; Gregory C. Johnson; Nicolas Kolodziejczyk; Arnaud Le Boyer; Pierre-Yves Le Traon; Pierre-Yves Le Traon; William Llovel; M. Susan Lozier; John M. Lyman; John M. Lyman; Elaine L. McDonagh; Elaine L. McDonagh; Adrian P. Martin; Benoit Meyssignac; Kristian S. Mogensen; Tamaryn Morris; Peter R. Oke; Walker O. Smith; Breck Owens; Noé Poffa; Joanna Post; Dean Roemmich; Ryan R. Rykaczewski; Shubha Sathyendranath; Megan Scanderbeg; Carolyn Scheurle; Oscar Schofield; Karina von Schuckmann; James Scourse; Janet Sprintall; Toshio Suga; Toshio Suga; Marina Tonani; Esmee van Wijk; Esmee van Wijk; Xiaogang Xing; Hao Zuo
Publicado en: Frontiers in Marine Science, 2025, ISSN 2296-7745
Editor: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/FMARS.2025.1593904

Relationship Between Circulation Types and Extreme Precipitation Over Scandinavia Is Stable Under Climate Change

Autores: F. Hansen, D. Belušić, K. Wyser
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, ISSN 1944-8007
Editor: Wiley Open Access
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL109704

Multi-annual predictions of hot, dry and hot-dry compound extremes

Autores: Alvise Aranyossy; Paolo De Luca; Carlos Delgado-Torres; Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali; Margarida Samso Cabre; Markus G. Donat
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, 2025, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-16-2225-2025

Multi-Decadal Skill Variability in Predicting the Spatial Patterns of ENSO Events

Autores: M. J. Wright, A. Weisheimer, T. Woollings
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL107971Sections

Near-term Mediterranean summer temperature climate projections: a comparison of constraining methods

Autores: Pep Cos, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, Markus Donat, Rashed Mahmood, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, 2024, ISSN 1520-0442
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0494.1

Benefits of km-scale climate modeling for winds in complex terrain: strong versus weak winds

Autores: Danijel Belušić; Petter Lind
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2025, ISSN 2698-4016
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-2025-1281

Environmental Research Letters

Autores: Eirini E Tsartsali; Stephen G Yeager; Panos J Athanasiadis; Stefano Tibaldi; Silvio Gualdi
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADFA3C

The Combined Link of the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO with the North Atlantic–European Circulation during Early Boreal Winter in Reanalysis and the ECMWF SEAS5 Hindcast

Autores: Raganato, A; Abid, MA; Kucharski, F
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, 2025, ISSN 1520-0442
Editor: American Meterological Society
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0703.1

Windows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022

Autores: Nick Dunstone, Doug M. Smith, Steven C. Hardiman, Paul Davies, Sarah Ineson, Shipra Jain, Chris Kent, Gill Martin & Adam A. Scaife
Publicado en: Nature Communications, Edición 6544, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Editor: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42377-1

Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective

Autores: J. Mindlin and C.S. Vera and T.G. Shepherd and F.J. Doblas-Reyes and N. Gonzalez-Reviriego and M. Osman and M. Terrado
Publicado en: Climate Services, ISSN 2405-8807
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/J.CLISER.2024.100480

Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude

Autores: D. M. Smith; N. J. Dunstone; R. Eade; S. C. Hardiman; L. Hermanson; A. A. Scaife; M. Seabrook
Publicado en: Nature Climate Change, 2025, ISSN 1758-6798
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S41558-025-02277-2

Thesis and dissertations (1)

Decadal climate prediction and predictability for climate services.

Autores: Delgado-Torres C
Publicado en: 2024
Editor: Universitat de Barcelona

Conference proceedings (1)

The North Atlantic climate variability in single-forcing large ensemble simulations with MPI-ESM-LR

Autores: Holger Pohlmann and Wolfgang A. Müller
Publicado en: EGU General Assembly 2024, 2024
Editor: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1411