Adaptation-oriented Seamless Predictions of European ClimaTe

Informazioni relative al progetto

ASPECT

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: 101081460

DOI

10.3030/101081460

Data della firma CE 22 Settembre 2022

Data di avvio 1 Gennaio 2023

Data di completamento 31 Dicembre 2026

Finanziato da

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Costo totale

€ 7 027 623,85

Contributo UE

€ 7 027 623,85

Coordinato da

BARCELONA SUPERCOMPUTING CENTER CENTRO NACIONAL DE SUPERCOMPUTACION
Spain

CORDIS fornisce collegamenti ai risultati finali pubblici e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti ORIZZONTE.

I link ai risultati e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti del 7° PQ, così come i link ad alcuni tipi di risultati specifici come dataset e software, sono recuperati dinamicamente da .OpenAIRE .

Risultati finali

Documents, reports (5)

Data Management Plan and its updates (in M18, M36 and M47)

The document will outline how data will be managed during the project from an internal and external point of view. The DMP will include a table specifying how the data will be exploited and shared for verification and reuse. Updates to the DMP will be provided in M18, M36 and M47.

Communication, dissemination and exploitation plan, including social media strategy

Communication, dissemination and exploitation plan, including social media strategy.

First impact evaluation and update to communication, dissemination and exploitation plan
Report on annual multi-sector user forum

Report on annual multi-sector user forum. This report will be updated each year thereafter (months 18, 30, 46)

Rapid assessment of climate information user needs

Report on rapid assessment of climate information user needs from published literature (grey and peer-reviewed) and first multi-sector forum.

Pubblicazioni

Peer reviewed articles (33)

Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and observations

Autori: Markus G Donat, Rashed Mahmood, Pep Cos, Pablo Ortega and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research: Climate, 2024, ISSN 2752-5295
Editore: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad5463

Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes

Autori: Carlos Delgado-Torres, Markus G Donat, Albert Soret, Nube González-Reviriego, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, An-Chi H, Nuria Pérez-Zanón, Margarida Samsó Cabré and Francisco J Doblas-Reyes
Pubblicato in: Enviromemntal research Letters, Numero 034031, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe1

Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?

Autori: Nick J. Dunstone, Doug M. Smith, Chris Atkinson, Andrew Colman, Chris Folland, Leon Hermanson, Sarah Ineson, Rachel Killick, Colin Morice, Nick Rayner, Melissa Seabrook, Adam A. Scaife
Pubblicato in: Atmospheric Science Letters, 2024, ISSN 1530-261X
Editore: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1002/asl.1254

CO2-induced climate change assessment for the extreme 2022 Pakistan rainfall using seasonal forecasts

Autori: Weisheimer, A; Palmer, TN; Leach, NJ; Allen, MR; Roberts, CD; Abid, MA
Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2025, ISSN 2397-3722
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S41612-025-01136-3

Tropical Pacific Trends in the ECMWF Seasonal System and Implications for Predictions of the 2020–22 Triple-Dip La Niña

Autori: Michael Mayer, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Frederic Vitart, Steffen Tietsche
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Numero 38, 2025, ISSN 0894-8755
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0467.1

Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts

Autori: Shirin Ermis and Nicholas J Leach and Fraser C Lott and Sarah N Sparrow and Antje Weisheimer
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research: Climate, Numero 035001, ISSN 2752-5295
Editore: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/AD4200

Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes

Autori: P De Luca; C Delgado-Torres; R Mahmood; M Samso-Cabre; M G Donat
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acf389

Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts

Autori: Nicholas J. Leach, Christopher D. Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Daniel Heathcote, Dann M. Mitchell, Vikki Thompson, Tim Palmer, Antje Weisheimer & Myles R. Allen
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 4530, 2024, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48280-

Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events

Autori: Liu, Yiling, Donat, Markus. G., England, Matthew. H., Alexander, Lisa. V., Hirsch, Annette L., Delgado-Torres, Carlos
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 6387, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42113-9

Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

Autori: Rashid, IU; Abid, MA; Osman, M; Kucharski, F; Ashfaq, M; Weisheimer, A; Almazroui, M; Torres-Alavez, JA; Afzaal, M
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2024, ISSN 1432-0894
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000174060

Advanced seasonal predictions for vine management based on bioclimatic indicators tailored to the wine sector

Autori: Chihchung Chou and Raül Marcos-Matamoros and Lluís Palma Garcia and Núria Pérez-Zanón and Marta Teixeira and Sara Silva and Natacha Fontes and Antonio Graça and Alessandro Dell'Aquila and Sandro Calmanti and Nube González-Reviriego
Pubblicato in: Climate Services, 2023, ISSN 2405-8807
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100343

Anomalously Warm European Summers Predicted More Accurately by Considering Sub‐Decadal North Atlantic Ocean Heat Accumulation

Autori: Lara Wallberg; Laura Suarez‐Gutierrez; Daniela Matei; Daniel Krieger; Wolfgang A. Müller
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2025, ISSN 1944-8007
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.3929/ETHZ-B-000735066

Urban Climate

Autori: Wang, Fuxing; Aldama Campino, Aitor; Belušić, Danijel; Amorim, Jorge Humberto; Ribeiro, Isabel; Wirehn, Lotten; Segersson, David; Doescher, Ralf; Navarra, Carlo; Neset, Tina-Simone; Lind, Petter
Pubblicato in: Urban Climate, 2025, ISSN 2212-0955
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/J.UCLIM.2025.102286

Skilful probabilistic medium‐range precipitation and temperature forecasts over Vietnam for the development of a future dengue early warning system

Autori: Main, L; Sparrow, S; Weisheimer, A; Wright, M
Pubblicato in: Meteorological Applications, 2024, ISSN 1469-8080
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/MET.2222

How Credibly Do CMIP6 Simulations Capture Historical Mean and Extreme Precipitation Changes?

Autori: Markus G. Donat, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Paolo De Luca, Rashed Mahmood, Pablo Ortega, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1944-8007
Editore: Wiley Open Access
DOI: 10.1029/2022GL102466C

Environmental Research Letters

Autori: Dario Nicolì; Silvio Gualdi; Panos J Athanasiadis
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADB59E

Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

Autori: Polkova I, Swingedouw D, Hermanson L, Köhl A, Stammer D, Smith D, Kröger J, Bethke I, Yang X, Zhang L, Nicolì D, Athanasiadis PJ, Karami MP, Pankatz K, Pohlmann H, Wu B, Bilbao R, Ortega P, Yang S, Sospedra-Alfonso R, Merryfield W, Kataoka T, Tatebe H, Im
Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Climate, Numero 1273770, 2023, ISSN 2624-9553
Editore: Frontiers Media SA
DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1273770

Comparison of five strategies for seasonal prediction of bioclimatic indicators in the olive sector

Autori: Chihchung Chou; Raül Marcos-Matamoros; Javier López-Nevado; Silvia López-Feria; Nube González-Reviriego
Pubblicato in: Climate Services, Vol 30, Iss , Pp 100345- (2023), 2023, ISSN 2405-8807
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100345

Record Warmth of 2023 and 2024 was Highly Predictable and Resulted From ENSO Transition and Northern Hemisphere Absorbed Shortwave Anomalies

Autori: Eduardo Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth; Roberto Bilbao; Aaron Donohoe; Stefano Materia
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2025, ISSN 1944-8007
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2025GL115614

CSIndicators: Get tailored climate indicators for applications in your sector

Autori: Núria Pérez-Zanón; An-Chi Ho; Chihchung Chou; Llorenç Lledó; Raül Marcos-Matamoros; Eva Rifà; Nube González-Reviriego
Pubblicato in: Climate Services, Vol 30, Iss , Pp 100393- (2023), 2023, ISSN 2405-8807
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100393

Ocean–Atmosphere Feedbacks Key to NAO Decadal Predictability

Autori: Casey Patrizio; Panos Athanasiadis; Doug Smith; Dario Nicolì
Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2025, ISSN 2397-3722
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-4868550/V1

The Relative Role of Indian and Pacific Tropical Heating as Seasonal Predictability Drivers for the North Atlantic Oscillation

Autori: Senan, R; Balmaseda, MA; Molteni, F; Stockdale, TN; Weisheimer, A; Johnson, S; Roberts, CD
Pubblicato in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2024, ISSN 2169-8996
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2024JD041233

Advancing ocean monitoring and knowledge for societal benefit: the urgency to expand Argo to OneArgo by 2030

Autori: Virginie Thierry; Hervé Claustre; Orens Pasqueron de Fommervault; Nathalie Zilberman; Kenneth S. Johnson; Brian A. King; Susan E. Wijffels; Udaya T. V. S. Bhaskar; Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda; Mathieu Belbeoch; Marine Bollard; Jacqueline Boutin; Phillip Boyd; Romain Cancouët; Fei Chai; Stefano Ciavatta; Rich Crane; Sophie Cravatte; Sophie Cravatte; Giorgio Dall’Olmo; Damien Desbruyères; Paul J. Durack; Andrea J. Fassbender; Katja Fennel; Yosuke Fujii; Florent Gasparin; Alberto González-Santana; Claire Gourcuff; Alison Gray; Helene T. Hewitt; Steven R. Jayne; Gregory C. Johnson; Nicolas Kolodziejczyk; Arnaud Le Boyer; Pierre-Yves Le Traon; Pierre-Yves Le Traon; William Llovel; M. Susan Lozier; John M. Lyman; John M. Lyman; Elaine L. McDonagh; Elaine L. McDonagh; Adrian P. Martin; Benoit Meyssignac; Kristian S. Mogensen; Tamaryn Morris; Peter R. Oke; Walker O. Smith; Breck Owens; Noé Poffa; Joanna Post; Dean Roemmich; Ryan R. Rykaczewski; Shubha Sathyendranath; Megan Scanderbeg; Carolyn Scheurle; Oscar Schofield; Karina von Schuckmann; James Scourse; Janet Sprintall; Toshio Suga; Toshio Suga; Marina Tonani; Esmee van Wijk; Esmee van Wijk; Xiaogang Xing; Hao Zuo
Pubblicato in: Frontiers in Marine Science, 2025, ISSN 2296-7745
Editore: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/FMARS.2025.1593904

Relationship Between Circulation Types and Extreme Precipitation Over Scandinavia Is Stable Under Climate Change

Autori: F. Hansen, D. Belušić, K. Wyser
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, ISSN 1944-8007
Editore: Wiley Open Access
DOI: 10.1029/2024GL109704

Multi-annual predictions of hot, dry and hot-dry compound extremes

Autori: Alvise Aranyossy; Paolo De Luca; Carlos Delgado-Torres; Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali; Margarida Samso Cabre; Markus G. Donat
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, 2025, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-16-2225-2025

Multi-Decadal Skill Variability in Predicting the Spatial Patterns of ENSO Events

Autori: M. J. Wright, A. Weisheimer, T. Woollings
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL107971Sections

Near-term Mediterranean summer temperature climate projections: a comparison of constraining methods

Autori: Pep Cos, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, Markus Donat, Rashed Mahmood, and Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, 2024, ISSN 1520-0442
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0494.1

Benefits of km-scale climate modeling for winds in complex terrain: strong versus weak winds

Autori: Danijel Belušić; Petter Lind
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2025, ISSN 2698-4016
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-2025-1281

Environmental Research Letters

Autori: Eirini E Tsartsali; Stephen G Yeager; Panos J Athanasiadis; Stefano Tibaldi; Silvio Gualdi
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, 2025, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ADFA3C

The Combined Link of the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO with the North Atlantic–European Circulation during Early Boreal Winter in Reanalysis and the ECMWF SEAS5 Hindcast

Autori: Raganato, A; Abid, MA; Kucharski, F
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, 2025, ISSN 1520-0442
Editore: American Meterological Society
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0703.1

Windows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022

Autori: Nick Dunstone, Doug M. Smith, Steven C. Hardiman, Paul Davies, Sarah Ineson, Shipra Jain, Chris Kent, Gill Martin & Adam A. Scaife
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 6544, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Research
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42377-1

Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective

Autori: J. Mindlin and C.S. Vera and T.G. Shepherd and F.J. Doblas-Reyes and N. Gonzalez-Reviriego and M. Osman and M. Terrado
Pubblicato in: Climate Services, ISSN 2405-8807
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/J.CLISER.2024.100480

Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude

Autori: D. M. Smith; N. J. Dunstone; R. Eade; S. C. Hardiman; L. Hermanson; A. A. Scaife; M. Seabrook
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, 2025, ISSN 1758-6798
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/S41558-025-02277-2

Thesis and dissertations (1)

Decadal climate prediction and predictability for climate services.

Autori: Delgado-Torres C
Pubblicato in: 2024
Editore: Universitat de Barcelona

Conference proceedings (1)

The North Atlantic climate variability in single-forcing large ensemble simulations with MPI-ESM-LR

Autori: Holger Pohlmann and Wolfgang A. Müller
Pubblicato in: EGU General Assembly 2024, 2024
Editore: EGU
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1411