Competition in the Digital Era: Technology and Geopolitics in the XXI Century

Project Information

CODE

Grant agreement ID: 101116328

DOI

10.3030/101116328

EC signature date 19 December 2023

Start date 1 January 2024

End date 31 December 2028

Funded under

• European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 1 437 497,50

EU contribution

€ 1 437 497,50

Coordinated by

VRIJE UNIVERSITEIT BRUSSEL
Belgium

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - CODE (Competition in the Digital Era: Technology and Geopolitics in the XXI Century)

Reporting period: 2024-01-01 to 2026-06-30

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

The CODE project investigates competition between China, Europe and the United States (US) for control of three critical technological sectors: semiconductors, cloud computing and space.

CODE’s central hypothesis is that sectoral technological characteristics explain variation in competitive outcomes. It focuses on two dimensions: the cycle of technological change, capturing the speed of innovation, and the degree of modularity, reflecting how production is organised between vertically integrated structures and global value chains. Combining these dimensions, the project generates expectations about the ability of China and Europe to compete with the US.

CODE is high-risk because it examines complex and politically sensitive sectors through a mixed-method design. However, it is also high-gain, as it advances the state of the art by introducing a sector-sensitive theory of technological competition that moves beyond linear accounts of catch-up.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

The CODE project has made substantial progress in line with its core objectives, combining theoretical development, methodological implementation and initial empirical analysis.

A first major achievement concerns the consolidation of the project’s theoretical framework. The project has developed a multidisciplinary approach integrating international relations, international political economy, innovation studies and management research to explain cross-sectoral variation in technological competition. This framework advances the central argument that sector-specific technological characteristics—particularly technological cycles, modularity and value-chain structures—shape both state strategies and firm behaviour in geopolitical technological rivalry. This theoretical contribution has been formalised and disseminated through several peer-reviewed publications, establishing the conceptual foundations of the project.

A second key achievement relates to methodological development and research design implementation. The project has operationalised its core concepts by developing a structured analytical framework that distinguishes between sector-specific characteristics, policy inputs and competitive outcomes. In this context, the research team has constructed original datasets covering technological indicators (e.g. patent cycle time, technological opportunities, modularity indices), policy inputs (e.g. R&D expenditure, industrial policy instruments, export controls), and market outcomes (e.g. market shares, firm performance). In addition, the project has developed novel composite indicators, including the Resource Accessibility Index (RAI) and the Technology Bifurcation Index (TBI), which allow for a more precise measurement of technological competition and fragmentation.

The project has also made significant progress in the development of advanced analytical tools. In particular, it has implemented social network analysis based on patent citation data to measure technological centrality and influence within global innovation systems. This approach enables the identification of leading firms and the mapping of technological diffusion patterns across sectors. Furthermore, an elite expert survey on geopolitical technological competition has been designed and implemented, generating a unique dataset on expert perceptions that will support subsequent empirical analysis.

A third major achievement concerns the initial empirical outputs of the project. Early analyses have been conducted across the three core sectors—semiconductors, cloud computing and space—providing preliminary insights into cross-sectoral patterns of technological competition between China, Europe and the United States. These findings have already resulted in a series of peer-reviewed publications and working papers, contributing to ongoing academic debates on technological rivalry, industrial policy and global value chains.

Taken together, these achievements have established the theoretical, methodological and empirical foundations necessary to carry out the project’s comparative analysis of technological catch-up. The work performed so far enables the next phase of the project, which will focus on the systematic integration of sectoral analyses and the testing of the project’s core hypotheses. At the end of the project, the expected outcomes include a generalisable theoretical framework for analysing technological competition, a set of original datasets and methodological tools, and a comprehensive empirical assessment of cross-sectoral technological rivalry between major powers.

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

The CODE project generates a set of interrelated theoretical, methodological and empirical results that have significant potential impact across academic, policy and societal domains.

A first key result is the development of a generalisable theoretical framework explaining cross-sectoral variation in technological competition. By demonstrating that sector-specific technological characteristics—particularly technological cycles, modularity and value-chain structures—systematically shape the outcomes of technological rivalry, the project challenges linear and generalised accounts of technological catch-up. This framework provides a new analytical lens to study great-power competition in the digital era and can be extended to other strategic sectors beyond semiconductors, cloud computing and space.

A second major result consists in the construction of original datasets and methodological tools for the analysis of technological competition. These include integrated databases on patents, market dynamics and policy inputs, as well as novel indicators such as the Resource Accessibility Index (RAI) and the Technology Bifurcation Index (TBI). Together with the application of patent citation network analysis, these tools provide a replicable and scalable empirical infrastructure for future research on innovation, industrial policy and global value chains.

A third set of results concerns the project’s empirical findings. Preliminary analyses provide new insights into the differentiated patterns of technological competition between China, Europe and the United States across the three sectors under investigation. These findings contribute to a more nuanced understanding of technological rivalry, highlighting the importance of sector-specific constraints and opportunities, as well as the role of first-mover countermeasures in shaping competitive dynamics.

The potential impacts of these results are substantial. At the scientific level, the project advances the state of the art by bridging international relations, political economy and innovation studies, and by introducing a sector-sensitive approach to technological competition. At the policy level, CODE provides actionable insights for policymakers dealing with industrial policy, economic security and technological sovereignty. In particular, the project helps identify the conditions under which different policy approaches—such as market-directing or market-correcting strategies—are more likely to succeed, thereby informing ongoing debates in Europe and beyond. More broadly, the project contributes to a better understanding of the forces driving the fragmentation of global technological systems and the emergence of competing technological spheres, with implications for globalisation, economic governance and international cooperation.

Ensuring the further uptake and impact of these results requires several complementary conditions. First, continued research is needed to extend the framework to additional sectors and to refine the measurement of technological competition, particularly in rapidly evolving domains such as artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. Second, access to high-quality and comparable data remains essential, especially in politically sensitive contexts where information is fragmented or restricted. Third, stronger engagement with policymakers and industry stakeholders is necessary to translate the project’s findings into practical policy guidance and strategic decision-making. Fourth, international collaboration and dialogue are crucial to address the global nature of technological competition and to avoid excessive fragmentation of technological ecosystems. Finally, supportive regulatory and standardisation frameworks will play an important role in shaping the extent to which technological systems remain interoperable or become increasingly fragmented.

At the end of the project, CODE is expected to deliver a coherent set of outcomes, including a generalisable theoretical framework, a suite of original datasets and methodological tools, and a comprehensive empirical assessment of technological competition across key strategic sectors. These results will provide both the academic community and policymakers with robust analytical tools to better understand and navigate the evolving landscape of global technological competition.