The CODE project generates a set of interrelated theoretical, methodological and empirical results that have significant potential impact across academic, policy and societal domains.
A first key result is the development of a generalisable theoretical framework explaining cross-sectoral variation in technological competition. By demonstrating that sector-specific technological characteristics—particularly technological cycles, modularity and value-chain structures—systematically shape the outcomes of technological rivalry, the project challenges linear and generalised accounts of technological catch-up. This framework provides a new analytical lens to study great-power competition in the digital era and can be extended to other strategic sectors beyond semiconductors, cloud computing and space.
A second major result consists in the construction of original datasets and methodological tools for the analysis of technological competition. These include integrated databases on patents, market dynamics and policy inputs, as well as novel indicators such as the Resource Accessibility Index (RAI) and the Technology Bifurcation Index (TBI). Together with the application of patent citation network analysis, these tools provide a replicable and scalable empirical infrastructure for future research on innovation, industrial policy and global value chains.
A third set of results concerns the project’s empirical findings. Preliminary analyses provide new insights into the differentiated patterns of technological competition between China, Europe and the United States across the three sectors under investigation. These findings contribute to a more nuanced understanding of technological rivalry, highlighting the importance of sector-specific constraints and opportunities, as well as the role of first-mover countermeasures in shaping competitive dynamics.
The potential impacts of these results are substantial. At the scientific level, the project advances the state of the art by bridging international relations, political economy and innovation studies, and by introducing a sector-sensitive approach to technological competition. At the policy level, CODE provides actionable insights for policymakers dealing with industrial policy, economic security and technological sovereignty. In particular, the project helps identify the conditions under which different policy approaches—such as market-directing or market-correcting strategies—are more likely to succeed, thereby informing ongoing debates in Europe and beyond. More broadly, the project contributes to a better understanding of the forces driving the fragmentation of global technological systems and the emergence of competing technological spheres, with implications for globalisation, economic governance and international cooperation.
Ensuring the further uptake and impact of these results requires several complementary conditions. First, continued research is needed to extend the framework to additional sectors and to refine the measurement of technological competition, particularly in rapidly evolving domains such as artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. Second, access to high-quality and comparable data remains essential, especially in politically sensitive contexts where information is fragmented or restricted. Third, stronger engagement with policymakers and industry stakeholders is necessary to translate the project’s findings into practical policy guidance and strategic decision-making. Fourth, international collaboration and dialogue are crucial to address the global nature of technological competition and to avoid excessive fragmentation of technological ecosystems. Finally, supportive regulatory and standardisation frameworks will play an important role in shaping the extent to which technological systems remain interoperable or become increasingly fragmented.
At the end of the project, CODE is expected to deliver a coherent set of outcomes, including a generalisable theoretical framework, a suite of original datasets and methodological tools, and a comprehensive empirical assessment of technological competition across key strategic sectors. These results will provide both the academic community and policymakers with robust analytical tools to better understand and navigate the evolving landscape of global technological competition.
