Project description
Understanding the ocean’s response to climate change
The ocean has absorbed significant amounts of anthropogenic carbon (Canth) and heat (Hanth) from CO2 emissions. As net-negative emissions happen, this stored energy may escape back into the atmosphere, but its impacts are not well understood. Current models overlook key ocean features that could influence this process. The ERC-funded OSTIA project aims to create an advanced Earth system model to study ocean mesoscale features and the effects of Canth and Hanth under a 1.5 °C CO2 emissions scenario, including net-negative emissions after 2050. The project will improve our understanding of these effects over the next 10 generations and evaluate the capabilities of current Earth system models. This research is vital for understanding the ocean's response to net-negative emissions.
Objective
The ocean has absorbed vast amounts of “anthropogenic” carbon and heat (Canth and Hanth, respectively), due to humans' carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere and resultant atmospheric warming. We expect absorbed Canth and Hanth to leak back to the atmosphere under net-negative emissions and atmospheric cooling. Yet, such leakage and its impact on Earth’s climate evolution are poorly understood. Earth system models used for such research do not resolve the most energetic features of the ocean, that is ocean mesoscale features that mix and transport waters across ocean regions where most of Canth and Hanth is stored. I hypothesize that mesoscale features accelerate the transfer of Canth and Hanth towards leakage sites, with potential implications for climate under net-negative emissions.
With the project OSTIA, I will set out to test this hypothesis. To do so, the project team will set up an innovative tool, an Earth system model rich in ocean mesoscale features, and equipped with a novel joint modeling approach for Canth and Hanth. The Earth system model will be exposed to a CO2 emissions scenario that is consistent with a warming target of around 1.5oC by the end of the century, includes net-negative emissions after 2050, and extends until 2300.
Pioneering outcomes of OSTIA will be (i) a game changer in mechanistic understanding of the legacy of Canth and Hanth in the ocean for the next 10 human generations, and (ii) to inform if current Earth system models are fit to represent Canth and Hanth legacy effects caused by the ocean mesoscale under net-negative emissions. The objectives of OSTIA are pressing, given that delay in ambitious action to cut CO2 emissions leads to further accumulation of Canth and Hanth in the ocean, and a reliance on future net-negative emissions in order to meet promised climate targets. A successful implementation of OSTIA will be a step change in the emerging research field of the ocean’s response to net-negative emissions.
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Keywords
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Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
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Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
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HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants
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Call for proposal
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(opens in new window) ERC-2023-STG
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24148 Kiel
Germany
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