Dryland agriculture and Land use; past, present and future resilience [AGRI-DRY]

Project Information

AGRI-DRY

Grant agreement ID: 101120560

DOI

10.3030/101120560

EC signature date 21 June 2023

Start date 1 March 2024

End date 29 February 2028

Funded under

• Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA)

Total cost

No data

EU contribution

€ 1 915 401,60

Coordinated by

UNIVERSIDAD POMPEU FABRA
Spain

Periodic Reporting for period 1 - AGRI-DRY (Dryland agriculture and Land use; past, present and future resilience [AGRI-DRY])

Reporting period: 2024-03-01 to 2026-02-28

Summary of the context and overall objectives of the project

AGRI-DRY is a multidisciplinary research and training network addressing the need for sustainable food production and ecological resilience in dryland regions, which support around 40% of the world’s population. Focusing on the Mediterranean Basin, North Africa, and Southern Africa, the project examines long-term interactions between human populations and their environments.

These regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and soil degradation, driven by unsustainable modern land management. In response, AGRI-DRY’s primary objective is to explore how ancient and traditional agricultural systems—grounded in Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK)—can help address challenges such as increasing aridity and food insecurity. The project aims to translate these insights into practical recommendations for policymakers and communities, supporting more sustainable and resilient food systems. A key component is the training of ten doctoral researchers in interdisciplinary methods integrating archaeology, ecology, and social sciences.

AGRI-DRY’s pathway to impact includes generating new insights into the cultural and ecological value of anthropogenic landscapes, and identifying resilient practices such as the use of underutilised crops. By quantifying long-term land-use impacts on climate, the project will also improve future predictions. As a Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH)-led initiative, AGRI-DRY emphasises anthropological and archaeological perspectives, including critical engagement with colonial knowledge legacies, ensuring outputs are scientifically robust and socially informed.

Ultimately, AGRI-DRY seeks to bridge long-term environmental knowledge with present-day policy, empowering communities and policymakers to adapt to ongoing environmental change.

Work performed from the beginning of the project to the end of the period covered by the report and main results achieved so far

During the first reporting period, the AGRI-DRY project established its multidisciplinary network of 10 doctoral candidates across six institutions (including two funded by UKRI) and completed key foundational activities. A major achievement has been the creation of regional databases documenting Holocene crop cultivation in North and Southern Africa. These now contain several hundred records, providing a long-term dataset for analysing land-use change and its climate impacts.

The project has also developed innovative methods combining archaeobotanical identification with stable isotope analysis to better understand past water management. This work is complemented by high-resolution crop niche modelling using spatial EcoCrop approaches. These models generate climatic suitability surfaces across the Holocene, identifying regional trends, zones of specialisation, and sensitivities to climate change, while offering insights into future crop suitability. Progress has also been made in analysing land cover change, showing shifts in vegetation and biodiversity in Southern Africa, including clear impacts of European settlement through new species and increased fire activity.

Fieldwork and ethnographic pilot studies in Botswana, Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe have documented Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK), identifying resilient strategies such as water harvesting (e.g. terracing, oasis farming) and soil fertility practices like polyculture.

In parallel, the project has established foundations for agent-based modelling (ABM) to assess how these strategies can be adapted across socio-ecological contexts. It has also examined the socio-political dimensions of agriculture, including the lasting effects of colonialism and apartheid on farming systems. Ethnoarchaeology and anthropology are used to document “social-ecological memory” in contemporary communities, ensuring research remains culturally relevant. Diversity and gender are core priorities, integrated into training, research design, and analysis.

A comprehensive training programme, delivered online and in person (including three summer schools), has equipped researchers with skills in research design, data analysis, ethics, publication, and policy impact. A dedicated work package has ensured effective project coordination, financial management, and communication, supporting delivery of the project’s academic and training objective

Progress beyond the state of the art and expected potential impact (including the socio-economic impact and the wider societal implications of the project so far)

The AGRI-DRY project has produced significant scientific advances by establishing a high-resolution evidence base for dryland resilience. Central to this is the development of regional archaeological and environmental databases, enabling the first combined qualitative and quantitative assessments of long-term land-use change in Africa. These datasets provide key evidence for improving climate predictions.

Building on this, the project has developed innovative frameworks that integrate archaeological data with land-use and climate modelling, enhancing predictive capacity. Spatial crop niche models trace agricultural productivity across the Holocene, offering insights into how key crops may respond to future climate change.

A major contribution is a specialised database mapping the distribution of dryland crops across Africa and Mediterranean Europe. This reveals strong regional diversity, with some areas showing high crop variability. These findings underscore the importance of reassessing traditional crops, many of which were marginalised by colonial legacies, neoliberal reforms, and policies favouring livestock systems. These processes disrupted communal land tenure and weakened indigenous seed systems.

AGRI-DRY also links long-term environmental data with present-day food security challenges. By documenting resilient practices—such as water harvesting, intercropping, and polyculture—it provides practical strategies for sustainable agriculture in semi-arid regions.

Impact is strengthened through training ten doctoral researchers with expertise in science, policy engagement, and diplomacy, supporting the translation of traditional knowledge into effective policy frameworks.

Looking ahead, the project highlights priorities to maximise impact, including addressing barriers to integrating Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) into policy, particularly top-down governance. Strengthening international collaboration, especially in Africa, will support knowledge exchange and data sharing. Sustained impact will also depend on FAIR data principles and open science practices, ensuring accessibility for researchers and policymakers.