Project description
The lifetime impact of climate change on people
Global warming leads to increased frequency, intensity and duration of extreme events such as heatwaves. Studies on the impact of climate change often fail to consider how vulnerability and climate risk change over a lifetime. Demographic research often neglects the effects of climate change on population dynamics and vulnerability. The ERC-funded LACRIMA project aims to identify the impacts of climate change and associated risks from a cohort perspective. The project will use machine learning to reconstruct significant climate change impacts, such as heat-related mortality and areas affected by wildfires. Additionally, it will identify age-specific vulnerabilities to climate extremes, quantify how these impacts affect life expectancy globally, and project how exposure to extreme events may lead to irreversible consequences.
Objective
Under a continued increase in global warming, extreme events such as heatwaves will further rise in frequency, intensity, and duration over the next decades. Climate change impact studies routinely assess hazard and exposure change across discrete time windows, but thereby fail to grasp how vulnerability and climate risk evolve across a persons lifetime. Conversely, demographic research has a long tradition of assessing population processes and vulnerability from a cohort perspective, but generally ignores climate impacts.
This project will develop novel concepts and methodologies to express climate change impacts and risk from a cohort perspective. More specifically, the project pursues (i) to reconstruct two iconic climate change impacts on people around the world using machine learning (heat-related mortality and burned area), (ii) to uncover age-specific vulnerability to climate extremes including heatwaves, wildfires, river floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, and crop failures, (iii) to detect and attribute changes in lifetime extreme event exposure and climate impacts on mortality across generations and regions, (iv) to quantify how these attributable cohort impacts change country-level life expectancy around the world under a range of warming scenarios, and finally (v) to project how lifetime exposure to extreme events including compound events may trigger irreversible impacts under scenarios of temporary overshooting of long-term warming targets.
By bridging physical climate science, demography, and planetary health, LACRIMA will comprehensively identify whether and where people will live an unprecedented life in terms of climate impacts, and how collective mitigation choices can alter the climate change burden on current young generations around the world.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- social sciences sociology demography mortality
- agricultural sciences agriculture, forestry, and fisheries agriculture
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences atmospheric sciences climatology
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2023-COG
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
1050 BRUSSEL
Belgium
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.