Exploring Tipping Points and Their Impacts Using Earth System Models

Project Information

TipESM

Grant agreement ID: 101137673

DOI

10.3030/101137673

EC signature date 24 October 2023

Start date 1 January 2024

End date 31 December 2027

Funded under

• Climate, Energy and Mobility

Total cost

No data

EU contribution

€ 4 864 470,59

Coordinated by

DANMARKS METEOROLOGISKE INSTITUT
Denmark

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Deliverables

Documents, reports (3)

TipESM Exploitation Strategy

Strategy for elaborating scenarios for the uptake.

TipESM Communication and Dissemination strategy

TipESM Communication and Dissemination strategy.

Report on the clustering event Nr. 1

The clustering event will be organised within WP9 (Task 9.1) and for the audiences identified in Table 2.3. The event will include 60 participants representing 10-15 projects all together and will be held in the period from month 13 to month 14. The report will be on the event itself, including the proceedings of the talks, presentations and panel discussions. The report will also include the conclusions of the discussions at the event, with the emerging recommendations for the uptake of the results discussed at the event.

Data Management Plan (2)

TipESM Data management plan, version Nr.2

Revision of the data management plan.

TipESM Data management plan, version Nr. 1

Data management plan, version Nr.1.

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (16)

On the predictability of possible storylines for forced complex systems

Author(s): Johannes Lohmann, Bert Wuyts, Peter Ditlevsen, Peter Ashwin
Published in: Journal of Physics: Complexity, Issue 5, 2024, ISSN 2632-072X
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2632-072X/AD7B95

Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review

Author(s): Nico Wunderling, Anna S. von der Heydt, Yevgeny Aksenov, Stephen Barker, Robbin Bastiaansen, Victor Brovkin, Maura Brunetti, Victor Couplet, Thomas Kleinen, Caroline H. Lear, Johannes Lohmann, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Sacha Sinet, Didier Swingedouw, Ricarda Winkelmann, Pallavi Anand, Jonathan Barichivich, Sebastian Bathiany, Mara Baudena, John T. Bruun, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Helen K. Coxall, David Docquier, Jonathan F. Donges, Swinda K. J. Falkena, Ann Kristin Klose, David Obura, Juan Rocha, Stefanie Rynders, Norman Julius Steinert, Matteo Willeit
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 15, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-15-41-2024

Opportunities for Earth Observation to Inform Risk Management for Ocean Tipping Points

Author(s): Wood, Richard; Baker, Jonathan; Beaugrand, Grégory; Boutin, Jacqueline; Conversi, Alessandra; Donner, Reik; Frenger, Ivy; Goberville, Eric; Hayashida, Hakase; Koeve, Wolfgang; Kvale, Karin; Landolfi, Angela; Maslowski, Wieslaw; Oschlies, Andreas; Romanou, Anastasia; Somes, Christopher; Stocker, Thomas; Swingedouw, Didier
Published in: Surveys in Geophysics, Issue 46, 2024, ISSN 1573-0956
Publisher: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/S10712-024-09859-3

Modeling surge dynamics improves coastal flood estimates in a global set of tropical cyclones

Author(s): Thomas Vogt, Simon Treu, Matthias Mengel, Katja Frieler, Christian Otto
Published in: Communications Earth & Environment, Issue 5, 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-024-01707-X

Forecast skill assessment of an operational continental heat-cold-health forecasting system: New avenues for health early warning systems

Author(s): Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Desislava Petrova, Èrica Martínez-Solanas, François R. Herrmann, Xavier Rodó, Jean-Marie Robine, Marc Marí-Dell’Olmo, Hicham Achebak, Joan Ballester
Published in: Science Advances, Issue 10, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
DOI: 10.1126/SCIADV.ADO5286

The 2023/24 El Niño and the Feasibility of Long-Lead ENSO Forecasting

Author(s): Desislava Petrova, Xavier Rodó, Siem Jan Koopman, Vassil Tzanov, Ivana Cvijanovic
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Issue 105, 2024, ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0158.1

Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi-Model Comparison

Author(s): M. Ben-Yami, P. Good, L. C. Jackson, M. Crucifix, A. Hu, O. Saenko, D. Swingedouw, N. Boers
Published in: Earth's Future, Issue 12, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2023EF003959

ClimLoco1.0: CLimate variable confidence Interval of Multivariate Linear Observational COnstraint

Author(s): Valentin Portmann; Marie Chavent; Didier Swingedouw
Published in: Geophysical Model Development, 2025, ISSN 1991-9603
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-2025-62

Declining coral calcification to enhance twenty-first-century ocean carbon uptake by gigatonnes

Author(s): Kwiatkowski, Lester; Planchat, Alban; Pyolle, Marc; Torres, Olivier; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Comte, Adrien; Bopp, Laurent
Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1091-6490
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/PNAS.2501562122

Modelling marine heatwaves impact on shallow and upper mesophotic tropical coral reefs

Author(s): Nicolas Colombi, Chahan M Kropf, Friedrich A Burger, David N Bresch, Thomas L Frölicher
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 19, 2024, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/AD89DF

The carbonate pump feedback on alkalinity and the carbon cycle in the 21st century and beyond

Author(s): Planchat, Alban; Bopp, Laurent; Kwiatkowski, Lester; Torres, Olivier
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 15, 2024, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/ESD-15-565-2024

Simulated millennial-scale climate variability driven by a convection–advection oscillator

Author(s): Yvan M. Romé, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, Didier Swingedouw, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Reyk Börner
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 63, 2025, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1007/S00382-025-07630-X

Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected

Author(s): Jens Terhaar, Friedrich A. Burger, Linus Vogt, Thomas L. Frölicher, Thomas F. Stocker
Published in: Nature, Issue 639, 2025, ISSN 0028-0836
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-025-08674-Z

A Weakened AMOC Could Cause Southern Ocean Temperature and Sea‐Ice Change on Multidecadal Timescales

Author(s): Diamond, Rachel; Sime, Louise C.; Schroeder, David; Jackson, Laura C.; Holland, Paul R.; de Asenjo, Eduardo Alastrué; Bellomo, Katinka; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Hu, Aixue; Jungclaus, Johann; Montoya, Marisa; Meccia, Virna L.; Saenko, Oleg A.; Swingedouw, Didier
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Issue 130, 2025, ISSN 2169-9291
Publisher: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2024JC022027

Surface and Subsurface Compound Marine Heatwave and Biogeochemical Extremes Under Climate Change

Author(s): Natacha Le Grix, Friedrich A. Burger, Thomas L. Frölicher
Published in: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Issue 39, 2025, ISSN 0886-6236
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2025GB008514

Climate change drives shifts in straddling fish stocks in the world’s ocean

Author(s): Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Bianca S. Santos, Thomas L. Frölicher, Gabriel Reygondeau, U. Sumaila, Colette C. C. Wabnitz, William W. L. Cheung
Published in: Science Advances, Issue 11, 2025, ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
DOI: 10.1126/SCIADV.ADQ5976

Conference proceedings (1)

Raising Awareness of Earth System Tipping Points: Implications for EU Governance

Author(s): Galmarini, S., Roman Cuesta, R.M., Dentener, F., Ruiz Moreno, A., Alessi, L. et al.
Published in: Issue JRC141821, 2025, ISSN 1831-9424
Publisher: Publications Office of the European Union
DOI: 10.2760/9047293