Periodic Reporting for period 1 - AMIGDALA (Alliance for Modelling Industries towards the Green Deal’s objectives And circuLArity)
Période du rapport: 2024-01-01 au 2025-06-30
The European Green Deal sets out a bold vision: to make the EU climate-neutral by 2050. Achieving this goal requires a major shift away from fossil fuels, which in turn demands a complete transformation of the energy system and much of the basic process industry. Because these sectors are vital to both European citizens and the economy, it’s essential to ensure that this transformation supports their profitability and competitiveness. This will help Europe retain key industries and maintain strategic independence.
From a governance standpoint, the way demand, global trade, and industrial production respond to policy measures is highly complex. Technical, economic, social, and behavioural factors all play a role, but they are often studied in isolation within their own disciplines. As a result, there is significant uncertainty about what drives lasting change and how different industrial transition paths might affect the European economy. This complexity is further increased by the way these factors interact and how different stakeholders—individually and collectively—respond to new policies.
The AMIGDALA project aims to support policymakers and industry leaders by providing evidence-based insights through advanced computer modelling. It explores options for climate-neutral industrial production in Europe, taking into account global changes. The project helps define and assess possible transformation pathways for both industry and the energy system, and identifies the conditions needed for new, sustainable solutions to succeed in the market. The ultimate goal is to support the development of circular, climate-neutral, and competitive industries.
AMIGDALA breaks new ground in computer modelling by combining different types of models from various disciplines into a single, integrated system. This approach reduces the need for assumptions between models and better reflects the competition for resources across sectors. The project also translates modelling results into economic indicators that are most relevant for decision-makers. This part of the research is carried out in close collaboration with both public and private stakeholders. Finally, AMIGDALA uses these economic indicators to rank different model outcomes from the perspectives of various users. This makes the results more transparent and helps stakeholders identify the transformation pathways that best align with their shared goals. By doing so, the project fosters informed decision-making and builds consensus around the most promising routes to a sustainable industrial future.
Achieving climate neutrality depends on two key factors: gaining scientific recognition for the integrated modelling approach, and empowering decision-makers with actionable insights. When the modelling results are robust and reliable enough to guide policy, industries in Europe will have the confidence to lead the way by implementing and showcasing “First of a Kind” climate-neutral solutions in their value chains. This will pave the way for new trade relationships focused on sustainable commodities, while competitively positioning European-made climate-neutral products both within the EU and on global markets.
From a governance standpoint, the way demand, global trade, and industrial production respond to policy measures is highly complex. Technical, economic, social, and behavioural factors all play a role, but they are often studied in isolation within their own disciplines. As a result, there is significant uncertainty about what drives lasting change and how different industrial transition paths might affect the European economy. This complexity is further increased by the way these factors interact and how different stakeholders—individually and collectively—respond to new policies.
The AMIGDALA project aims to support policymakers and industry leaders by providing evidence-based insights through advanced computer modelling. It explores options for climate-neutral industrial production in Europe, taking into account global changes. The project helps define and assess possible transformation pathways for both industry and the energy system, and identifies the conditions needed for new, sustainable solutions to succeed in the market. The ultimate goal is to support the development of circular, climate-neutral, and competitive industries.
AMIGDALA breaks new ground in computer modelling by combining different types of models from various disciplines into a single, integrated system. This approach reduces the need for assumptions between models and better reflects the competition for resources across sectors. The project also translates modelling results into economic indicators that are most relevant for decision-makers. This part of the research is carried out in close collaboration with both public and private stakeholders. Finally, AMIGDALA uses these economic indicators to rank different model outcomes from the perspectives of various users. This makes the results more transparent and helps stakeholders identify the transformation pathways that best align with their shared goals. By doing so, the project fosters informed decision-making and builds consensus around the most promising routes to a sustainable industrial future.
Achieving climate neutrality depends on two key factors: gaining scientific recognition for the integrated modelling approach, and empowering decision-makers with actionable insights. When the modelling results are robust and reliable enough to guide policy, industries in Europe will have the confidence to lead the way by implementing and showcasing “First of a Kind” climate-neutral solutions in their value chains. This will pave the way for new trade relationships focused on sustainable commodities, while competitively positioning European-made climate-neutral products both within the EU and on global markets.
Through webinars, workshops, and direct outreach, we gained valuable insights into how public and private stakeholders assess economic conditions and interpret model projections. This helped us understand how they derive actionable insights from the data. A key outcome of this engagement is a set of economic indicators that we now use to rank and present model results—making the outcomes more relatable and easier to interpret for decision-makers.
Our work on model development focused on enabling smooth data exchange between different models and creating an execution framework that respects both spatial and temporal scales. The proof-of-concept successfully demonstrated that it is feasible to “soft-link” multiple models operating at global, EU, and local levels. By using shared assumptions and harmonized inputs, we achieved basic interoperability between models such as TIMES-Europe, TIAM-ECN, EXIOMOD, and GLOBIOM.
The proof-of-concept also showed the value of distinguishing between background and foreground scenarios. Global pathways, inspired by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were effectively combined with EU-specific policy levers—particularly those related to circularity and climate neutrality. A major achievement was the successful parameterization of these scenarios across a diverse set of models. This process revealed the need to narrow down the selection of policy levers in the foreground scenarios to match the capabilities of the models.
Using an Excel-based proof-of-concept, we confirmed that Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can effectively connect scenario outcomes to stakeholder priorities. This was done using the economic indicators we developed in collaboration with both public and private stakeholders, ensuring that the analysis remains relevant and grounded in real-world concerns.
In our data workstream, we focused on how to quantify the key dimensions of climate neutrality. We identified reliable public sources for historical data and assessed how best to manage and present this information. We also selected a user interface—developed in collaboration with IIASA—that will be used to present both historical data and future pathway projections in a clear and accessible way.
Our work on model development focused on enabling smooth data exchange between different models and creating an execution framework that respects both spatial and temporal scales. The proof-of-concept successfully demonstrated that it is feasible to “soft-link” multiple models operating at global, EU, and local levels. By using shared assumptions and harmonized inputs, we achieved basic interoperability between models such as TIMES-Europe, TIAM-ECN, EXIOMOD, and GLOBIOM.
The proof-of-concept also showed the value of distinguishing between background and foreground scenarios. Global pathways, inspired by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were effectively combined with EU-specific policy levers—particularly those related to circularity and climate neutrality. A major achievement was the successful parameterization of these scenarios across a diverse set of models. This process revealed the need to narrow down the selection of policy levers in the foreground scenarios to match the capabilities of the models.
Using an Excel-based proof-of-concept, we confirmed that Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can effectively connect scenario outcomes to stakeholder priorities. This was done using the economic indicators we developed in collaboration with both public and private stakeholders, ensuring that the analysis remains relevant and grounded in real-world concerns.
In our data workstream, we focused on how to quantify the key dimensions of climate neutrality. We identified reliable public sources for historical data and assessed how best to manage and present this information. We also selected a user interface—developed in collaboration with IIASA—that will be used to present both historical data and future pathway projections in a clear and accessible way.
The results of AMIGDALA—its modelling framework, transition scenarios, and pathway projections—will support the development of public policies, regulations, and private sector roadmaps. These insights will also help guide investment decisions. By providing policymakers, industries, and investors with clear information on the benefits and trade-offs of different transition scenarios, AMIGDALA will help Europe create the right conditions for a successful green transition.
Ultimately, this will contribute to achieving climate neutrality by 2050, reducing Europe’s reliance on imported fossil fuels, and identifying and addressing market barriers. It will also help remove other obstacles that currently hinder the adoption, funding, and deployment of sustainable value chains and process technologies.
Ultimately, this will contribute to achieving climate neutrality by 2050, reducing Europe’s reliance on imported fossil fuels, and identifying and addressing market barriers. It will also help remove other obstacles that currently hinder the adoption, funding, and deployment of sustainable value chains and process technologies.