The European Green Deal sets out a bold vision: to make the EU climate-neutral by 2050. Achieving this goal requires a major shift away from fossil fuels, which in turn demands a complete transformation of the energy system and much of the basic process industry. Because these sectors are vital to both European citizens and the economy, it’s essential to ensure that this transformation supports their profitability and competitiveness. This will help Europe retain key industries and maintain strategic independence.
From a governance standpoint, the way demand, global trade, and industrial production respond to policy measures is highly complex. Technical, economic, social, and behavioural factors all play a role, but they are often studied in isolation within their own disciplines. As a result, there is significant uncertainty about what drives lasting change and how different industrial transition paths might affect the European economy. This complexity is further increased by the way these factors interact and how different stakeholders—individually and collectively—respond to new policies.
The AMIGDALA project aims to support policymakers and industry leaders by providing evidence-based insights through advanced computer modelling. It explores options for climate-neutral industrial production in Europe, taking into account global changes. The project helps define and assess possible transformation pathways for both industry and the energy system, and identifies the conditions needed for new, sustainable solutions to succeed in the market. The ultimate goal is to support the development of circular, climate-neutral, and competitive industries.
AMIGDALA breaks new ground in computer modelling by combining different types of models from various disciplines into a single, integrated system. This approach reduces the need for assumptions between models and better reflects the competition for resources across sectors. The project also translates modelling results into economic indicators that are most relevant for decision-makers. This part of the research is carried out in close collaboration with both public and private stakeholders. Finally, AMIGDALA uses these economic indicators to rank different model outcomes from the perspectives of various users. This makes the results more transparent and helps stakeholders identify the transformation pathways that best align with their shared goals. By doing so, the project fosters informed decision-making and builds consensus around the most promising routes to a sustainable industrial future.
Achieving climate neutrality depends on two key factors: gaining scientific recognition for the integrated modelling approach, and empowering decision-makers with actionable insights. When the modelling results are robust and reliable enough to guide policy, industries in Europe will have the confidence to lead the way by implementing and showcasing “First of a Kind” climate-neutral solutions in their value chains. This will pave the way for new trade relationships focused on sustainable commodities, while competitively positioning European-made climate-neutral products both within the EU and on global markets.
