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Geothermal Exploration and Optimization through Forward Modeling and Resource Development

Project description

Forward modelling approach to boosting geothermal exploration

Accurate pre-drilling predictions are crucial in geothermal exploration to minimise mining risks. The EU-funded GO-Forward project aims to develop a new approach that involves using forward modelling methods – originally developed for hydrocarbon exploration – to enhance pre-drilling predictions of geothermal reservoir properties. Key to the GO-Forward approach is simulating geological processes rather than relying solely on geostatistical extrapolation. Machine learning and advanced computational techniques should help enhance subsurface data for calibration, uncertainty quantification, data assimilation and flow simulation. In addition, the project emphasises public engagement and stakeholder dialogue to increase societal readiness for geothermal advances.

Objective

GO-Forward aims to develop a novel methodological approach to make more accurate pre-drilling predictions of geothermal reservoir properties and thus reduce the mining risk. Key to the GO-Forward approach is to simulate geological processes for pre-drill assessment of reservoir structure and properties, calibrated to geological or geophysical data, rather than extrapolating the properties from those data with geostatistical methods. To this end, GO-Forward focuses on extending and further developing, testing and demonstrating the added value of forward modelling methods originally developed for hydrocarbon exploration, including stratigraphic forward modelling (SFM), diagenesis forward modelling (DFM) and fracture network forward modelling (FFM), to be used for exploration in different geothermal settings of high relevance for Europe. First, the developed approaches will be tested and calibrated in areas with abundant subsurface information and production data, to prove conceptually the applicability of the methods and reproducibility of the results, to optimise and de-risk geothermal exploration. Calibrated model approaches are subsequently applied in areas with limited data availability to demonstrate their capability to increase pre-drill Probability of Success (POS). To support the workflow and further reduce exploration costs, GO-Forward advances ML-based and computational methods to enhance (existing) (sub)surface information for calibration, uncertainty quantification and data assimilation, and (upscaling) routines for flow simulation, DNSH, and techno-economic performance assessment for POS and Value of Information (VOI). In addition, GO-Forward addresses public awareness of geothermal developments already at the early stages of exploration. By including novel approaches to citizen engagement and stakeholder dialogue, we aim to increase the societal readiness level of geothermal exploration as the first step of geothermal developments.

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Keywords

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Programme(s)

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Topic(s)

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Funding Scheme

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HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions

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Call for proposal

Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.

(opens in new window) HORIZON-CL5-2023-D3-02

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Coordinator

FRAUNHOFER GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FORDERUNG DER ANGEWANDTEN FORSCHUNG EV
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 988 921,25
Address
HANSASTRASSE 27C
80686 MUNCHEN
Germany

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Region
Bayern Oberbayern München, Kreisfreie Stadt
Activity type
Research Organisations
Links
Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 988 921,25

Participants (8)

Partners (3)

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