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The Lockdown Cohort-Effect: Does the unequal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility lead to long-term consequences for health and public services provision?

Project description

Exploring the pandemic’s surprising impact on birth outcomes

Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, a surprising trend emerged regarding babies conceived during lockdowns. They may represent the most socially advantaged and thus healthiest cohort in recent history. Termed the Lockdown Cohort (LoCo)-Effect, this phenomenon raises questions about the pandemic's long-term impacts. With the support of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) programme, the LoCo-Effect project will analyse individual-level register data from multiple European and Latin American countries and the US. Using natural experimental methods, the project aims to understand how pandemic-induced changes in parental demographics affect birth outcomes. This interdisciplinary effort promises insights into the pandemic's unexpected effects on pregnancy and birth, with far-reaching implications for public health and social policy.

Objective

The COVID-19 pandemic placed a heavy social and health burden on populations. Yet, because of social inequalities in the pandemic’s impact on fertility behaviour, babies conceived during the pandemic may be the most socially advantaged and healthiest birth cohort of the last decades. Research on this counterintuitive but realistic consequence of the pandemic – the Lockdown Cohort (LoCo)-Effect – is critical for public policy and the understanding of pandemic consequences.
As individual-level register data for babies conceived and born in 2021 and later is only just becoming available, we still know little about how the pandemic changed the composition of parents and to what extent this explains changes in birth outcomes for those born during the pandemic. To address this knowledge gap, I will use individual-level register data (2010-2022) from Finland, Scotland, Austria, Spain, the United States, and Brazil and natural experimental methods to study the LoCo-effect comparatively. This strengthens the generalisability of results across different welfare regimes and pandemic experiences. First, I will study the magnitude of compositional changes in parental characteristics due to the unequal impact of the pandemic on fertility. Second, I will analyse the extent to which differences in prematurity and birth weight between the LoCo and earlier cohorts are caused by this change in parental characteristics. Third, I will estimate how the pandemic has affected intersectional social inequalities in birthweight and preterm birth.
This project is innovative because it bridges disconnected debates in demography, epidemiology, and sociology to explain why, against expectations, pregnancy and birth outcomes have improved during the pandemic. As parental characteristics and birth outcomes shape health, developmental, and socioeconomic outcomes throughout life, the results of this project will influence social and public health research and policy for decades to come.

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HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European Fellowships

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) HORIZON-MSCA-2023-PF-01

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Coordinator

HELSINGIN YLIOPISTO
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 199 694,40
Address
FABIANINKATU 33
00014 HELSINGIN YLIOPISTO
Finland

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Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

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