Project description
New approach for tuna catch predictions
Tuna, which constitutes 10 % of global marine catches and sustains numerous jobs, faces challenges due to overfishing and climate change. The MSCA-funded CST-TUNA project will address these by using Bayesian spatial models, particularly integrated nested Laplace approximation, or INLA. It will predict the dynamics of tuna catch and prices while accounting for environmental factors. The project will also incorporate forecasts from the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model to deliver accurate predictions regarding tuna catch and price fluctuations over the next decade. Additionally, it will develop a web application to provide scientific insights. These results will advance our comprehension of tuna fisheries and climate vulnerabilities, bolster sustainability efforts, empower coastal communities and align with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Objective
Tuna, a cornerstone of global fisheries, representing 10% of marine catches and sustaining numerous jobs, confronts pressing challenges from overfishing and climate change. To address these issues comprehensively, our proposal outlines a three-fold strategy: 1 - Advanced Spatial Modeling: We will employ Bayesian spatial models, specifically INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation), to predict tuna catch and price dynamics while considering vital environmental factors. This approach will unveil intricate relationships between catch, prices, and environmental variables, providing a deeper understanding of the complex interplay; 2 - Climate-Based Predictions: Building upon the insights gained from our spatial models, we will integrate predictions from the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM). This integration will allow us to provide skillful forecasts for tuna catch and price fluctuations over the next decade. These forecasts are invaluable for anticipating and responding to dynamic changes in the tuna industry, enhancing its resilience; 3 - User-Friendly Web Application: In collaboration with experts from ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) and the Norwegian IMR (Institute of Marine Research), we will develop a user-friendly web application. By developing this tool, we aim to make our scientific insights accessible to a wide audience, including researchers, managers, and policymakers. This project not only enhances our understanding of tuna fisheries and climate vulnerabilities but also empowers coastal communities, supports sustainability, and aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals. Our commitment to open-science practices ensures lasting impact through readily available project code and results.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques.
- agricultural sciencesagriculture, forestry, and fisheriesfisheries
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
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Programme(s)
- HORIZON.1.2 - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) Main Programme
Funding Scheme
HORIZON-TMA-MSCA-PF-EF - HORIZON TMA MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowships - European FellowshipsCoordinator
5020 Bergen
Norway