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PAST TO FUTURE: TOWARDS FULLY PALEO-INFORMED FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS

Project description

Paleoenvironmental data to improve climate change predictions

Understanding past climate evolution is essential for improving predictions of future climate change. Current Earth system models (ESMs) rely on 170 years of stable data, but it is necessary to account for longer-term changes and critical transitions that impact ecosystems and societies. Enhancing our understanding of these processes is crucial for making accurate forecasts. In this context, the EU-funded P2F project will improve our understanding of the climatic and societal impacts of the ongoing climate crisis by integrating paleoenvironmental data, ESMs and theoretical approaches. The project will enhance ESM capabilities and advance the Climate Model Intercomparison Project model development cycle by providing paleo-informed models for future projections and developing plausible climate change scenarios based on past events.

Objective

The project Past-to-Future (P2F) aims at radically advancing our knowledge of past climatic conditions to better understand Earth’s climate response to different kinds of forcing, with considerable focus on potential abrupt climatic transitions and the crossing of tipping points. To this end, P2F will integrate information from paleoenvironmental proxy data, from Earth system models (ESMs), and from rigorous theoretical approaches. Being able to reconstruct past climate evolution is a necessary step for enhancing our capacity to look into the future and, therefore, extensive improvements of state-of-the-art ESMs are needed. So far, ESMs are mainly calibrated and validated with respect to the instrumental records of the last ~170 years of relatively stable climate, while the Earth’s longer-term history is characterised by an interplay of gradual climate change, variability and critical transitions between competing states, with profound impacts on climate subsystems, ecosystems, and civilisations. Understanding the leading dynamical processes and feedbacks and in particular improving our ability to model and anticipate critical transitions in the climate and ecosystems is key to project future climate change on spatio-temporal scales relevant for societies, ecosystems and the planet. In this context, P2F will critically advance our ability to understand and anticipate the main climatic and societal impacts of the ongoing climate crisis. Specifically, P2F will extend the reach of Earth System Models and demonstrate a step change in the model development cycle of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), by providing fully paleo-informed models for future projection and producing a portfolio of plausible future climate change scenarios that are constrained by documented past climate changes and abrupt transitions. Finally, P2F will efficiently disseminate research outputs and engage key stakeholders in dialogue to ensure appropriate synergies are at attained.

Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)

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Programme(s)

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Topic(s)

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Funding Scheme

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HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) HORIZON-CL5-2024-D1-01

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Coordinator

UNIVERSITEIT UTRECHT
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 3 379 058,47
Address
HEIDELBERGLAAN 8
3584 CS Utrecht
Netherlands

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Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

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Participants (20)

Partners (3)

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