Project description
Paleoenvironmental data to improve climate change predictions
Understanding past climate evolution is essential for improving predictions of future climate change. Current Earth system models (ESMs) rely on 170 years of stable data, but it is necessary to account for longer-term changes and critical transitions that impact ecosystems and societies. Enhancing our understanding of these processes is crucial for making accurate forecasts. In this context, the EU-funded P2F project will improve our understanding of the climatic and societal impacts of the ongoing climate crisis by integrating paleoenvironmental data, ESMs and theoretical approaches. The project will enhance ESM capabilities and advance the Climate Model Intercomparison Project model development cycle by providing paleo-informed models for future projections and developing plausible climate change scenarios based on past events.
Objective
The project Past-to-Future (P2F) aims at radically advancing our knowledge of past climatic conditions to better understand Earth’s climate response to different kinds of forcing, with considerable focus on potential abrupt climatic transitions and the crossing of tipping points. To this end, P2F will integrate information from paleoenvironmental proxy data, from Earth system models (ESMs), and from rigorous theoretical approaches. Being able to reconstruct past climate evolution is a necessary step for enhancing our capacity to look into the future and, therefore, extensive improvements of state-of-the-art ESMs are needed. So far, ESMs are mainly calibrated and validated with respect to the instrumental records of the last ~170 years of relatively stable climate, while the Earth’s longer-term history is characterised by an interplay of gradual climate change, variability and critical transitions between competing states, with profound impacts on climate subsystems, ecosystems, and civilisations. Understanding the leading dynamical processes and feedbacks and in particular improving our ability to model and anticipate critical transitions in the climate and ecosystems is key to project future climate change on spatio-temporal scales relevant for societies, ecosystems and the planet. In this context, P2F will critically advance our ability to understand and anticipate the main climatic and societal impacts of the ongoing climate crisis. Specifically, P2F will extend the reach of Earth System Models and demonstrate a step change in the model development cycle of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), by providing fully paleo-informed models for future projection and producing a portfolio of plausible future climate change scenarios that are constrained by documented past climate changes and abrupt transitions. Finally, P2F will efficiently disseminate research outputs and engage key stakeholders in dialogue to ensure appropriate synergies are at attained.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- humanities history and archaeology history
- natural sciences physical sciences astronomy planetary sciences planets
- natural sciences biological sciences ecology ecosystems
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Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.2.5 - Climate, Energy and Mobility
MAIN PROGRAMME
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HORIZON.2.5.1 - Climate Science and Solutions
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Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-RIA - HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) HORIZON-CL5-2024-D1-01
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3584 CS Utrecht
Netherlands
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Participants (21)
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1165 KOBENHAVN
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80333 Muenchen
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LE1 7RH Leicester
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1350 Kobenhavn K
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LS2 9JT Leeds
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28040 Madrid
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BS8 1QU BRISTOL
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14473 Potsdam
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DH1 3LE DURHAM
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EX4 4QJ Exeter
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27570 Bremerhaven
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CF10 3AT CARDIFF
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1348 LOUVAIN LA NEUVE
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80539 MUNCHEN
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EX1 3PB EXETER
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1000 Bruxelles / Brussel
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SN2 1FL SWINDON
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9712CP Groningen
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28006 Madrid
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60325 FRANKFURT
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12616 Tallinn
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Partners (3)
Partner organisations contribute to the implementation of the action, but do not sign the Grant Agreement.
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3012 Bern
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Partner organisations contribute to the implementation of the action, but do not sign the Grant Agreement.
Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
80301 Boulder
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The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.
Partner organisations contribute to the implementation of the action, but do not sign the Grant Agreement.
Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
5005 Adelaide
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The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.