Project description
Revolutionising earthquake early warning with AI
Earthquakes remain a major global threat, claiming lives and causing billions in damages each year. While some regions have early warning systems (EWS), they typically offer only a few seconds of alert, often underestimating the scale of large quakes and the tsunamis they trigger. In this context, the ERC-funded AI-WARNING project aims to change this by introducing advanced AI algorithms into EWS. By analysing seismic waves, gravity signals, and GNSS data, these AI systems provide faster and more accurate earthquake predictions. The first deployment in Peru aims to protect millions of people, offering a groundbreaking multi-messenger AI-based system that could be replicated worldwide to mitigate earthquake and tsunami risks.
Objective
Earthquakes caused nearly one million fatalities in the last two decades and billions of euros of economic loss. In our current state of knowledge, these hazardous events remain unpredictable. Early Warning Systems (EWS) exist in some countries at risk, but they only send alerts once the earthquake has started, leveraging information recorded close to the epicenter before the most destructive seismic waves reach more distant populated areas. These systems provide – in the best-case scenarios – only a few seconds of warning before the strongest shakings. Moreover, for fundamental reasons, they systematically underestimate the magnitude of large events, which results in dramatic underestimation of potential subsequent tsunamis, which typically cause most of the fatalities and damage. Therefore, making EWS faster and more accurate is crucial to mitigate the hazard associated with these catastrophic events. In the framework of the ERC StG project EARLI, we developed prototype Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms providing faster and more accurate theoretical estimates of the location and magnitude of large earthquakes than state-of-the-art EWS. We propose to implement these AI algorithms in the operational EWS of Peru, with the objective of transforming the theoretical developments of the ERC StG EARLI (Licciardi et al., Nature, 2022; Lara et al., JGR, 2023) into concrete operational improvements in EWS performance. The algorithms we developed use short records of traditional seismic waves and light-speed gravity signals. We will complement these two algorithms by a third AI-based one using GNSS, allowing the implemented EWS to leverage complementary real-time data, and making it the first operational multi-messenger AI-based EWS. The system will rapidly benefit millions of people at high risk from earthquakes in Peru, and serve as a Proof-of-Concept for every region exposed to earthquake and tsunami hazard worldwide.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- social sciences social geography transport navigation systems satellite navigation system global navigation satellite system
- natural sciences earth and related environmental sciences geology seismology
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Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
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Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-ERC-POC - HORIZON ERC Proof of Concept Grants
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Call for proposal
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(opens in new window) ERC-2024-POC
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13572 Marseille
France
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