Project description
The historical evolution of ecological inference problems
Although there is evidence of the growth of far-right parties, limited survey data prevent comprehensive long-term analyses of political change. The ERC-funded ECOSOCIAL project aims to analyse the historical evolution of political divisions and socioeconomic inequalities. Analysing existing electoral data, it will provide solutions to ecological inference problems. Its main contribution will be to contextualise current transformations within a broader historical framework. The project will deliver the first comprehensive quantitative analysis of US elections from 1788 to 2024, and will apply new econometric methods to six European countries, enhancing our understanding of partisan realignments in Western democracies while examining the evolution of social capital since the 19th century.
Objective
The goal of ECOSOCIAL is to examine empirically the historical evolution of political cleavages and socioeconomic inequalities, with a multidisciplinary perspective and the use of granular local level data and cutting-edge statistical methods. Who turns out to vote? Who do the poor and the rich vote for, and how has this changed in the long run? Why and when did the left-right voting pattern break down in Western democracies? What can the past teach us about democratic backsliding? While there is plenty of evidence on the rise of Europe’s far right and the emergence of multi-elite party systems, we lack a quantitative analysis of the long-term changes in the structure of political cleavages. The gap in the literature comes from the fact that it mostly relies on survey data, which do not allow us to go far back in time. An alternative is the reliance on local-level granular information, but inferring individual voting behavior from aggregate data may lead to ecological fallacies. ECOSOCIAL will help fill this gap, by exploiting the historical depth of existing electoral data while offering novel solutions to the ecological inference problems. Its novelty will be to put today’s transformations into a longer historical perspective – which crucially will allow us to better understand them and their consequences.
ECOSOCIAL will advance the existing research in four steps. First, I will provide the first comprehensive quantitative study of US elections between 1788-2024, considering both Presidential votes and primaries. Second, I will propose novel econometric solutions to overcome ecological fallacies. Third, I will apply this new methodology to six European countries, thereby enhancing our understanding of partisan realignments in Western democracies. Finally, I will construct historical series of the evolution of social capital going back to the 19th century, so as to investigate whether the explanatory power of this factor has gained importance in recent years.
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
CORDIS classifies projects with EuroSciVoc, a multilingual taxonomy of fields of science, through a semi-automatic process based on NLP techniques. See: The European Science Vocabulary.
- social sciences political sciences political transitions elections
- social sciences political sciences government systems democracy
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
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Topic(s)
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Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
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Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants
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Call for proposal
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Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2025-COG
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75341 Paris
France
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