Climate Extremes, Urbanization, and Mortality in Jordan: Advancing Adaptation and Resilience in an Overheated and Understudied Region

Descripción del proyecto

La repercusión del cambio climático en las poblaciones vulnerables de Jordania

El cambio climático constituye una de las principales amenazas para la salud pública, especialmente en Oriente Próximo, donde la combinación de temperaturas elevadas y escasez de agua aumenta la vulnerabilidad de la población. Jordania ofrece un contexto especialmente adecuado para estudiar la mortalidad asociada al calor, debido a sus condiciones climáticas extremas y a la disponibilidad de datos adecuados. En el proyecto ResilientJordan, que cuenta con el respaldo de las acciones Marie Skłodowska-Curie, se estudiará la mortalidad en Jordania a lo largo de veinte años a partir de datos diarios de carácter ambiental, climático y sanitario. También se analizarán los efectos sobre la salud de las condiciones climáticas actuales y de las previstas para el futuro, teniendo en cuenta la edad y el género.

Objetivo

Climate change constitutes one of the most pressing public health concerns of the twenty-first century, with global warming increasing at an unprecedented pace. The combination of high temperature and water scarcity makes the Middle East one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. These vulnerabilities are further exacerbated by structural and geopolitical factors, including rapid population growth, accelerated urbanization, demographic aging, persistent political and military conflicts, and large-scale population displacement. Despite global recognition of the imperative need for climate action in vulnerable areas, evidence of heat-related mortality impacts in the Middle East remains scarce. This is particularly concerning considering that if these climatic trends persist, they could critically compromise the long-term habitability of the region. Within the region, Jordan presents a unique opportunity to address this research gap, as it combines substantial exposure to extreme climatic conditions with reliable data systems and established scientific expertise, offering an ideal setting for research on vulnerable populations.

The overarching aim of ResilientJordan is to close this critical knowledge gap through a highly interdisciplinary approach. The project will integrate more than two decades of individual-level mortality records with daily meteorological, environmental, and greenness exposure data, applying advanced statistical methods to quantify health risks under current and projected climate scenarios. Special emphasis will be placed on vulnerable groups through stratified analyses by age, sex, and sociodemographic characteristics. Ultimately, the project will provide the first comprehensive assessment of the climate-health nexus in the Middle East, generating policy-relevant evidence to guide adaptation and resilience in one of the world's most climate-vulnerable regions.