Objective
RAPTURE addresses a critical and timely challenge: how can we simulate extreme rainfall on the kilometre-scale under conditions we have never seen, in a trustworthy way? Overcoming this challenge is vital for understanding the dynamics and impacts of localised extreme rainfall (LXR) in a future, warmer world. Two approaches now offer practical paths forward: regional models that can resolve convective rainfall and computationally-efficient machine-learning rainfall emulators.
Models we can trust for studying future LXR must realistically reproduce current LXR diversity across space and time, and its relationship to multi-scale dynamical processes. Yet this diversity is difficult to verify and how far current approaches meet this realism criteria is still poorly understood. Trustworthy emulators must also be able to generalise to weather conditions they have not been trained on, but when emulators can and cannot do this is still unknown. These measures of trustworthiness require domain-specific expertise to evaluate and (for emulators) computer science expertise to improve: a disconnect that has not yet been bridged.
RAPTURE will overcome these barriers to progress. We use an innovative weather systems approach to achieve unprecedented insight into European LXR in observations, regional simulations and emulators, then use that insight to improve models and create accessible diagnostics. We will ask and answer:
1) How realistic is LXR in physical models and emulators?
2) When can emulators generalise, when can’t they, and why?
3) Can we make emulators more trustworthy, and make this goal accessible and assessable for machine-learning researchers?
These answers will unlock the potential of cheap, trustworthy LXR emulation: local rainfall that can be simulated for centuries, opening new cross-timescale research frontiers. Our approach will extend directly to other regions and climate hazards, and our findings will have cascading impacts in core-AI and applied science
Fields of science (EuroSciVoc)
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Keywords
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Project’s keywords as indicated by the project coordinator. Not to be confused with the EuroSciVoc taxonomy (Fields of science)
Programme(s)
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
Multi-annual funding programmes that define the EU’s priorities for research and innovation.
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HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC)
MAIN PROGRAMME
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Topic(s)
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Calls for proposals are divided into topics. A topic defines a specific subject or area for which applicants can submit proposals. The description of a topic comprises its specific scope and the expected impact of the funded project.
Funding Scheme
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants
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Call for proposal
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
Procedure for inviting applicants to submit project proposals, with the aim of receiving EU funding.
(opens in new window) ERC-2026-STG
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Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.
5020 Bergen
Norway
The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.