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Forests’ Response to Prolonged Droughts

Objectif

Rising temperatures and prolonged droughts are intensifying vegetation water stress, tree mortality, and wildfires. Earth science still lacks a direct, consistent, and globally scalable framework to monitor vegetation water stress. Existing approaches and early warning systems rely on indirect proxies to estimate forest thresholds and risks. A direct and global view is urgently needed to address Science Questions (SQs): (1) Where and how does forest water stress emerge across biomes and climate zones? (2) Which environmental drivers amplify/mitigate stress dynamics? (3) How do forests respond across drought timescales?

In FROND, I propose a paradigm shift using Vegetation Water Content (VWC), a direct, species-independent indicator of plant hydration, as the basis for global stress monitoring. VWC reveals whether plants recover overnight from daytime water loss, offering a mechanistic signal of stress onset. Conventional remote sensing cannot resolve these (sub-)diurnal dynamics due to low revisit rates and sensor constraints. I unlock the potential of GNSS Reflectometry (GNSS-R), a disruptive technique that repurposes signals from over 120 navigation satellites reflected off Earth’s surface. Using multi-constellation GNSS-R data, I will track global VWC cycles with unprecedented sub-daily sampling (up to every three hours). My proof-of-concept in the Amazon, based on only a subset of available data, demonstrates GNSS-R’s transformative potential to monitor water stress.

FROND will (i) produce the first global, sub-daily VWC dataset and, based on it, deliver a set of novel stress indices; (ii) develop F@urora, an AI-driven global coupled atmosphere–vegetation model, to map and forecast water stress and fire risk; and (iii) use these advances to address the SQ1–3. FROND replaces indirect proxies with direct plant moisture observations and opens a new frontier in Earth system monitoring, enabling early fire warning systems with unprecedented accuracy and timeliness.

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Programme(s)

Thème(s)

Régime de financement

HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC Grants

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Appel à propositions

(s’ouvre dans une nouvelle fenêtre) ERC-2026-STG

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Institution d’accueil

AALBORG UNIVERSITET
Contribution nette de l'UE
€ 1 499 790,00
Adresse
FREDRIK BAJERS VEJ 7K
9220 Aalborg
Danemark
Région
Danmark Nordjylland Nordjylland
Type d’activité
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Liens
Coût total
€ 1 499 790,00

Bénéficiaires (1)