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Modelling the spread of pandemic influenza and strategies for its containment and mitigation

Objective

The public heath threat posed by novel strains of influenza A gaining transmissibility in people and causing a human pandemic has been recognised as potentially catastrophic, especially since the emergence and global spread of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus. Several mathematical models have been developed to evaluate patterns of spatio-temporal spread of infection, and the effectiveness of various containment strategies. However, these require significant improvements, elaboration, and application, in order to better inform EU-wide policy and responses. Key to the determination of the spatio-temporal patterns of pandemic influenza are data on contact patterns, such as those that are being acquired by the EU projects INFTRANS and POLYMOD. Building on these projects, we will collect detailed data on population structure, workplace sizes, and population movement; while also doing new surveys focused on identifying potential behavioral super-spreaders, and attitudes towards, and potential behavioural changes during, a pandemic. A suite of mathematical models, ranging from deterministic and stochastic differential equations to individual-based microsimulations, will be developed and integrated; taking into account all of the new data that is acquired above. The models will be validated against data on past pandemics and on the dynamics of seasonal and endemic infectious diseases. The effectiveness of control/treatment strategies, including measures to increase social distance (school and workplaces closure, travel reductions), quarantine, antiviral prophylaxis and mass or targeted vaccination, which also consider contact tracing protocols, will be evaluated through these models. An essential ingredient to the usefulness of detailed models is the possibility of updating them on the basis of new information or on the patterns of an emerging epidemic; hence a specific effort will be devoted to develop modular and efficient algorithms allowing for real-time analysis.

Field of science

  • /medical and health sciences/health sciences/epidemiology/pandemics

Call for proposal

FP7-HEALTH-2007-A
See other projects for this call

Funding Scheme

CP-FP - Small or medium-scale focused research project

Coordinator

UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI TRENTO
Address
Via Calepina 14
38122 Trento
Italy
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
EU contribution
€ 270 132
Administrative Contact
Raul Paolo Serapioni (Prof.)

Participants (10)

IMPERIAL COLLEGE OF SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY AND MEDICINE
United Kingdom
EU contribution
€ 314 412
Address
South Kensington Campus Exhibition Road
SW7 2AZ London
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Administrative Contact
Michael Robinson (Dr.)
FONDAZIONE BRUNO KESSLER
Italy
EU contribution
€ 212 757
Address
Via Santa Croce 77
38122 Trento
Activity type
Research Organisations
Administrative Contact
Umberto Silvestri (Mr.)
UNIVERSITE PIERRE ET MARIE CURIE - PARIS 6
France
EU contribution
€ 230 880
Address
Place Jussieu 4
75252 Paris
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Administrative Contact
Stéphanie Rossard (Dr.)
Public Health England an Executive Agency of the Dept of Health
United Kingdom
EU contribution
€ 476 775
Address
Waterloo Road
SE1 8UG London
Activity type
Research Organisations
Administrative Contact
Stephen Andrew Leach (Dr.)
RIJKSINSTITUUT VOOR VOLKSGEZONDHEID EN MILIEU
Netherlands
EU contribution
€ 42 626
Address
Antonie Van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9
3721 MA Bilthoven
Activity type
Research Organisations
Administrative Contact
Marjon Straver (Ms.)
TERVEYDEN JA HYVINVOINNIN LAITOS
Finland
EU contribution
€ 199 080
Address
Mannerheimintie 166
00271 Helsinki
Activity type
Research Organisations
Administrative Contact
Jaakko Penttinen (Dr.)
UNIVERSITA COMMERCIALE LUIGI BOCCONI
Italy
EU contribution
€ 107 550
Address
Via Sarfatti 25
20136 Milano
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Administrative Contact
Simona Gagino (Dr.)
ISTITUTO SUPERIORE DI SANITA
Italy
EU contribution
€ 275 909
Address
Viale Regina Elena 299
00161 Roma
Activity type
Research Organisations
Administrative Contact
Rosa Maria Martoccia (Ms.)
INSTITUTUL DE SANATATE PUBLICA
Romania
EU contribution
€ 41 025
Address
Str Dr Leonte Nr 1-3
76256 Bucuresti
Activity type
Public bodies (excluding Research Organisations and Secondary or Higher Education Establishments)
Administrative Contact
Steluta Harabagiu (Ms.)
CLALIT HEALTH SERVICES
Israel
EU contribution
€ 20 400
Address
Arlozorov Street 101
62098 Tel Aviv
Activity type
Research Organisations
Administrative Contact
Ofra Gibli (Ms.)