Objectif The advantage provided by the increasingly interconnected nature of our world has generated a dangerous by-product: the possibility for rapid worldwide spread of epidemics. The ability to forecast epidemic evolution – as much accurately as we can now do for weather conditions – would be of invaluable help in fighting the emergence or re-emergence of viruses such as SARS, avian influenza, HIV-AIDS, Lyme disease, West Nile virus, or more recently the threat of an influenza pandemic. With the advent of interdisciplinary tools and methods, the latest modeling approaches for the study of the spread and control of infectious diseases witness the emergence of a new area of research – computational epidemiology – that integrates mathematical and statistical epidemiology with computational sciences and informatics tools to conduct scenario analysis in public health domain. While few research groups have begun to use large scale simulations for epidemic modeling, many fundamental theoretical questions are left unanswered. How does the complex nature of real world affect our predictive capabilities in the realm of computational epidemiology? What are the fundamental limits in epidemic evolution predictability with computational modeling? How do they depend on the level of accuracy of our description and knowledge of the state of the system? The present project aims at developing a vigorous research effort along two main directions corresponding to i) the formulation of models for the basic theoretical understanding of multi-scale and agent based approaches and their predictive power; ii) the development of computational approaches and data integration tools that will provide a realistic modeling framework for the analysis of observed epidemic outbreaks and the forecast of patterns of emerging diseases. The ERC Starting Independent Researcher Grant offers an ideal opportunity to start a structured program in this direction, aimed at providing fundamental advances in the field. Champ scientifique medical and health scienceshealth sciencespublic healthepidemiologymodeling of diseases spread Mots‑clés GIS computer simulations disease outbreaks predictions stochastic processes transportation Programme(s) FP7-IDEAS-ERC - Specific programme: "Ideas" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Thème(s) ERC-SG-LS6 - ERC Starting Grant - Immunity and infection Appel à propositions ERC-2007-StG Voir d’autres projets de cet appel Régime de financement ERC-SG - ERC Starting Grant Institution d’accueil ISTITUTO PER L'INTERSCAMBIO SCIENTIFICO Contribution de l’UE € 684 000,00 Adresse VIA CHISOLA 5 10126 Torino Italie Voir sur la carte Région Nord-Ovest Piemonte Torino Type d’activité Research Organisations Chercheur principal Vittoria Colizza (Dr.) Contact administratif Roberto Palermo (Dr.) Liens Contacter l’organisation Opens in new window Site web Opens in new window Coût total Aucune donnée Bénéficiaires (1) Trier par ordre alphabétique Trier par contribution de l’UE Tout développer Tout réduire ISTITUTO PER L'INTERSCAMBIO SCIENTIFICO Italie Contribution de l’UE € 684 000,00 Adresse VIA CHISOLA 5 10126 Torino Voir sur la carte Région Nord-Ovest Piemonte Torino Type d’activité Research Organisations Chercheur principal Vittoria Colizza (Dr.) Contact administratif Roberto Palermo (Dr.) Liens Contacter l’organisation Opens in new window Site web Opens in new window Coût total Aucune donnée