Risk of Energy Availability: Common Corridors for Europe Supply Security

Final Report Summary - REACCESS (Risk of Energy Availability: Common Corridors for Europe Supply Security)

Executive Summary:

The principal objectives of the REACCESS - Risk of Energy Availability: Common Corridors for Europe Supply Security - Project are:

- analysing present policies concerning EU MS and Community targets for secure energy import,
- identifying main "captive" and "open sea" corridors for primary and secondary energy supply to the EU 27 MS plus Norway, Switzerland and Iceland and Balkan Region Countries
- evaluating technical and economical features of present and future energy corridors within Europe and between Europe and the energy supplying regions of the World,
- describing and analysing the spatial distribution of the energy corridors and inserting their features in a Data Base associated to a Geographical Information System,
- evaluating the main environmental interactions of the identified corridors
- defining criteria and evaluating parameters for the corridor supply reliability
- implementing the energy corridors and their attributes into a suitable multi regional Model - based on adapted versions of ETSAP-TIMES approaches - describing the energy systems and the energy commodities' trade of European and extra-European Countries/Regions,
- identifying the main external macro-economic drivers for the scenario assessment,
- analysing scenarios, in which for the fulfilment of the EU27+ energy needs, the import strategies of primary (and secondary) energy carriers compete with the evolution of energy efficiency policies (i.e. white certificates for the energy saving), the introduction of new energy schemes and the development of renewables, in the framework of the EU environmental targets for 2030-2050
- exploring scenario variants related to some criticalities across sensitive corridor hubs
- producing suitable tools for presentation of the results
- developing dissemination plans for the Project and its results.

Project Context and Objectives:

The context:

The "Energy Policy for Europe" document, agreed by the European Council in March 2007, establishes the Union's core energy policy objectives of competitiveness, sustainability and security of supply.

The internal energy market has to be completed in the coming years and by 2020 renewable sources have to contribute 20% to our final energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions have to fall by 20% (and possibly 30%) and energy efficiency gains have to deliver 20% savings in energy consumption.

The EU has to assure security of supply to its 500 million citizens at competitive prices against a background of increasing international competition for the world's resources. The relative importance of energy sources will change. For fossil fuels, notably gas and oil, the EU will become even more dependent on imports. For electricity, demand is set to increase significantly.

The Energy 20203 Communication, adopted on 10 November 2010, called for a step change in the way to plan, construct and operate EU energy infrastructures and networks. Energy infrastructures are at the forefront of the flagship initiative "Resource efficient Europe".

Energy investments in the order of trillion Euros are needed, both to diversify existing resources and replace equipment and to cater for challenging and changing energy requirements.

Long term commitment to the decarbonisation path with a target for the EU and other industrialised countries of 80% to 95% cuts in emissions by 2050.

Part of the EU could lose more than a third of their generation capacity by 2020; it implies replacing and expanding existing capacities, finding secure non fossil fuel alternatives, adapting networks to renewable energy sources and achieving a truly integrated energy market. That means actions for high energy savings, more low carbon investments and adoption of a wide range of centralised and distributed renewable energy sources and key technologies for energy storage and electro-mobility (electric vehicles and public transport).

The Supply Side policies must involve the electricity generation, for reaching the objective of a 2/3 share coming from low carbon sources by the early 2020's; nuclear energy accounts now 1/3 of EU electricity and 2/3 of the carbon-free electricity.

The oil and gas sectors need for stronger mechanisms to secure new, diversified and safe supply routes. There is a need of a proper infrastructure across Europe, comparable to the means of transport of other strategic sectors (telecommunications, transport); further efforts must be devoted to upgrade energy infrastructure particularly in New MS.

The aim of this priority area is to build the infrastructure needed to allow gas from any source to be bought and sold anywhere in the EU, regardless of national boundaries. This would also ensure security of demand by providing for more choice and a bigger market for gas producers to sell their products. A number of positive examples in Member States demonstrate that diversification is key factor to increased competition and enhanced security of supply. Whilst on an EU level supplies are diversified along three corridors - Northern Corridor from Norway, Eastern corridor from Russia, Mediterranean Corridor from Africa - and through LNG, single source dependency still prevails in some regions.

Every European region should implement infrastructure allowing physical access to at least two different sources. At the same time, the balancing role of gas for variable electricity generation and the infrastructure standards introduced in the Security of Gas Supply Regulation impose additional flexibility requirements and increase the need for bi-directional pipelines, enhanced storage capacities and flexible supply, such as LNG/CNG. In order to achieve these objectives, priority corridors have been identified.

The first is the Southern Corridor to further diversify sources at the EU level and to bring gas from the Caspian Basin, Central Asia and the Middle East to the EU.

The second one involves the kink among the Baltic, Black, Adriatic and Aegean Seas, through in particular, the implementation of BEMIP and the North-South Corridor in Central Eastern and South-East Europe.

The third priority corridor is the North-South one in Western Europe to remove internal bottlenecks and increase short-term deliverability, thus making full use of possible alternative external supplies, including from Africa, and optimising the existing infrastructure, notably existing LNG plants and storage facilities.

Moreover, actions must be developed for ensuring the security of oil supply to land-locked EU countries in Central-Eastern Europe, currently dependent on limited supply routes, in case of lasting supply disruptions in the conventional routes.

Diversification of oil supplies and interconnected pipeline networks would also help not to increase further oil transport by vessels, thus reducing the risk of environmental hazards in the particularly sensitive and busy Baltic Sea and Turkish Straits. This can be largely achieved within the existing infrastructure by reinforcing the inter-operability of the Central-Eastern European pipeline network by means of interconnecting the different systems and removing capacity bottlenecks and/or enabling reverse flows.

Moreover, the obligation of solidarity among MS will be null and void without a sufficient internal infrastructure and interconnections across external borders and maritime areas. The construction of new interconnections at EU borders should receive the same attention and policies as intra-EU projects.

Specific emphasis on the Southern Corridor and the effective start of projects of European interest, in particular Nabucco and ITGI.

An official EU web site gives information on models, along with examples of relevant policies which are assessed. These models incorporate the latest scientific findings and validate data from all Member States and economic sectors. The models can be run either independently or as useful combinations as part of more comprehensive assessments. These are grouped in three categories: energy markets and activity, climate and air impacts and emissions, and socio-economic assessments.

Energy system models, Sectoral models, Socio-economic assessments and Scenarios built by international organizations represent a suitable background for facing the problem of the security of the European energy supply

Main objectives of the REACCESS project

REACCESS is a research project with "the main goal of ... building tools suitable for EU27+ energy import scenario analyses, able to take into account at the same time the technical, economic and environmental aspects of the main energy corridors, for all energy commodities and infrastructures."

The fulfilment of this objective required a series of actions involving

- the assessment of the main characteristics of the international energy commodities' trade,
- the production of suitable modelling tools for the energy systems of European and Rest of the World countries/regions
- the assessment of exemplary scenarios and variants

The energy corridor system

With reference to the first objective, the main present and future "captive" and "open sea" corridors for primary and secondary energy supply to the EU 27 MS plus Norway, Switzerland and Iceland and Balkan Region Countries were identified. Their technical, economical and environmental features were inserted into Data Base associated to a Geographical Information System, where the spatial distribution of these energy corridors was described and correlated to the main land use indicators for suitable impact evaluations.

These energy corridors and their attributes were implemented into multi-regional modelling tools - based on adapted versions of ETSAP-TIMES approaches - describing the energy systems and the energy commodities' trade of European and extra-European Countries/Regions.

In particular the new TIMES REACCESS CORridor model (RECOR) represents in detail the status and possible future developments of the 'energy corridors' system bringing energy from suppliers to consumers. Compared to the most used representation of trade in TIMES energy models, it maintains and valorise, as much as possible, also the spatial characteristics of the commodity routes, in addition to the technological, economical and environmental ones, usually considered in previous modelling exercises.

RECOR represents all the corridors of the DBT and uses all the technical-economic and geographical information of the DBT. Each trade corridor is defined by an origin/destination pair: this means that the number of trade processes to take into consideration became very high, but the benefit resulting from the full traceability of the commodities has been considered of primary interest for the analysis of EU and MS supply strategies.

To each corridor a socio-political risk parameter is associated, which reflects the different levels of reliability of the country where the corridor originates (supply country) or through which it transits. In the case of ships this also reflects problems related to 'choke points' In order to characterise each model variable with an elemental risk parameter and to build an explicit system risk indicator (see below) to be added to the objective function, the capabilities of the MARKAL-TIMES methodology have been extended.

The REACCESS model assumes that all infrastructures connecting the Member States are built timely in order to ensure that the internal market becomes a reality.

The main "captive" and "open sea" corridors for primary and secondary energy supply to the EU 27 MS plus Norway, Switzerland and Iceland and Balkan Region Countries have been identified; the technical and economical features of present and future energy corridors within Europe and between Europe and the energy supplying regions of the World have been assessed. Their spatial distributions have been described and analysed; all data of their features have been inserted into a Data Base associated to a Geographical Information System. A detailed spatial analysis evaluated the main environmental interactions of the identified corridors. Criteria and parameters for the corridor supply reliability have been defined and evaluated.

The energy corridors and their attributes have been implemented into a suitable multi regional Model - based on adapted versions of ETSAP-TIMES approaches - describing the energy systems and the energy commodities' trade of European and extra-European Countries/Regions.

The modelling tools for the energy systems of European and Rest of the World countries/regions

With reference to the main modelling features, the REACCESS project aimed to generate, make available and disseminate:

* a new modelling tool, based on the stochastic version of the TIMES technical economic model generator and related SW tools, incorporating the main consumers and supply regions and corridors for external energy supply and featuring:
* long term time horizon (2050, by 5-year periods at the beginning, and 10 year periods in the central and final part of the time horizon), to support the definition of long term strategies, taking into account different standards of energy devices and technological development;
* high technological detail, in energy supply (inside EU and from outside) and end-use sectors, including local and global endogenous technology learning;
* basic standard modelling in which exogenous and endogenous variables are kept separated;
* reaction to new policies with different equilibria, interacting with ExternE, NEEDS and RES2020 Projects and LCA methodology results;
* full representation of all energy vectors included in the detailed energy balances;
* capability to analyse the availability and security of each supply corridor/region through suitable methodology;
* break down of demands for energy services, each one dependent on its own price;
* capability of analysing the impact of different policies and price mechanisms (such as various tax or subsidy schemes for commodities and technologies) and different systems of energy supply;
* assessment of target-based policies (e.g. setting thresholds for CO2 emissions);
* exemplary scenarios and variants for EU27+ and the other main supply demand regions;
* investigation of inter-relationships between external energy supply strategies and EU27+ or MS policies for energy management (Supply-Side, e.g. promotion of renewables; Demand-Side e.g. energy efficiency, behavioural change, carbon or other extra tax, etc.)
* exemplary assessment of EC and MS policies;
* dissemination and exploitation activities for discussion refinement and dissemination of the methodology and models and the results of the analysed scenarios.

In the longer term, the action will help both EC as well as MS to assess quantitatively the effect of various energy import policies / measures in connection with EC / national policies to manage their energy market e.g. renewables, efficiency, primary demand management (behavioural change, car-bon or extra other tax).

As one of the main innovation of the new REACCESS methodology, the security indicators are built into the model, in order to build the least risky scenarios ex-ante and to help identifying hedging strategies, instead of accessing the security level of different scenarios / policies ex post by comparing the value of appropriate security indicators.

The successful implementation of the REACCESS energy system scenario analyses required a number of enhancements in the existing TIMES model generator, which provide new modeling functions that are not currently available in TIMES.

* A new TIMES process concept, representing an energy supply corridor:
* New TIMES input parameters representing the elemental risk parameters estimated within the project.
* New TIMES equations that facilitate the derivation of the acceptable risk among the corridors for each fuel.
* New reporting calculations, which allocate the costs related to the common infrastructure of the energy corridors to the exporting and / or importing regions;
* A new facility for freezing the TIMES model solution up to a user-defined period, and then re-optimizing with new scenario parameters.

The modelling requirements consist of three inter-related missions:

1. the representation of the European Energy System, including domestic energy supply, intra-EU energy transport, and EU energy demand over the 2005-2050 horizon
2. the representation of non-EU energy sources (potentials, technical and economic characteristics) and of non-EU Energy Systems, over the same horizon
3. the representation of energy supply corridors, including the representation of the techno-economic characteristics and of the security characteristics of the corridors, existing or future.

The task of representing all techno-economic properties of the three elements listed above is daunting task due mostly to data issues and to model size issues, although it is a classical application of the TIMES model generator. On the contrary, the task of representing risk aspects linked to the security of supply is much less obvious, and required novel concepts and methods. The new REACCESS model is the result of a complex reshaping, improvement and size increase of the existing models of the World and of the EU.

The scenarios and variants

The approach of scenario building was generalised, in order to explore trade-offs among different objective function components, such as cost, import corridor risk, technological risk and climate mitigation. Since technical-economic TIMES model assume perfect economic equilibrium on every commodity, this is equivalent to introducing market power imperfections. This option allows the study of equilibrium solutions with reduced risk scenarios. It will be combined with hedging against security and climate risks.

The VEDA users' interface has to undergo a major review in order to manage all the new features introduced in TIMES and to allow several run-time aggregation options, which reduce the size of the new models to manageable levels. The main external macro-economic drivers for the scenario assessment have been identified and the main scenario with some variants including some criticalities across sensitive corridor hubs have been analysed.

For the fulfilment of the EU27+ energy needs, the import strategies of primary (and secondary) energy carriers compete with the evolution of energy efficiency policies (i.e. white certificates for the energy saving), the introduction of new energy schemes and the development of renewables, in the framework of the EU environmental targets for 2030-2050.

Project Results:

1. Identification and characterisation of the European energy supply corridors.

The energy supply corridors are fully described in the Data Base Template (DBT). The DBT developed within the REACCESS project is both a stand alone data container and an input structure to the modelling system adopted in the Project.

The DBT is composed by a set of Excel files, one for each energy commodity group: crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products, coal, biomass, electricity from CSP, hydrogen and nuclear fuel.

Each file has a series of worksheets to describe the single steps of the origin-destination structure of the corridors:

Resources - Primary and Secondary production - Export ports - to Eu and non EU Corridors - Import Ports

The heart of each commodity-related DBT is the corridors sheet (named [commodity]_CORR). The corridors are either open sea links (from an exporting port to the importing port) or captive links (a series of segments of pipelines, or an electric overhead or submarine line, or a railway connection). Existing and future/projected pipeline are described. Present and some foreseen open sea links are provided.

Open sea corridors are single connections from one port to another port, while for captive corridors, especially pipelines, the identification is more complicated due to the network nature of these connections.

Whenever possible, captive corridors are grouped by main name, e.g. the "Brotherhood" gas pipeline or the "Druzhba" oil pipeline system.

Each corridor is described with a series of segments defined by five elements:

CORR code - Start Country - Start Name - End Country End Name

Each segment can be:

a (country) border to border pipeline segment / a border to (country) internal point segment / a point to border segment / a point to point segment

Internal points are used when divergence points are to be represented.

E.g.: Unecha is an internal Russian point, crucial for the Russian oil transportation network. From Unecha, three diverging branches of the same corridor start. There is a segment which ends in point Unecha and three segments which start from point Unecha.

It may happen that two divergence points (hubs) are in the same country: the segment linking the two is a point-to-point segment.

Each time a segment crosses an EU country, a supply line is provided. This conventionally starts from the entry point of the country. The supply line is intended to describe the delivery of the commodity to the country and for linking the corridor's model with the Country Reference Energy System.

Many corridors start with one, or more, segments in a series, called Feeders. In the case of captive corridors, Feeders have the same description of normal segments and are intended to highlight the link from a field to the first segment of the corridor. As a matter of fact they are normal segments. In the case of refined petroleum products (RPP) the real feeder supplies crude oil to the port, where the representative refinery is ideally located.

In the case of open sea corridors, Feeders represent the link between the field, or the group of fields, of a supplying country and the shipping ports. If more ports are individuated in the same supplying country, more feeders start from the same field and end in each port. Also in this case, feeders are described with the same detail of other segments even if they happen to represent a group of pipelines.

Some infrastructures may be used to transport and deliver different commodities, in terms of origin, to the EU countries. The codes given to each corridor segment keep track of the origin:

NG_PIP_047_01_RUS1

Commodity ¬_ Type of infrastructure ¬_ Corridor main code _ Progressive # of segment _ Origin identifier

E.g. TAL pipeline, starting in Trieste and delivering oil to Italy, Austria and Germany, can transport oil from all over the world, as Trieste port is an important import port for Europe. To maintain the information about which commodity is delivered to whom, with the same infrastructure (TAL) it was chosen to replicate the infrastructure description (the segment list) at the end of each supplying corridor. E.g. One open sea corridor starting from Saudi Arabia (SAR) ends in Trieste where TAL_SAR starts to deliver the Saudi oil to Italy, Austria and Germany. One open sea corridor starting from Libya ends too in Trieste, where TAL_LYB (Libya) transports Libyan oil to Italy, Austria and Germany.

Also mixed captive-open sea corridors are described.

E.g. Kazakh oil may be transported to EU with a first captive part of the corridor and then via ship, from a Russian or Ukrainian port, to EU. In the case the entry point in EU is Trieste, there a TAL_KAZ pipeline starts.

Of course, the capacity of TAL as a whole is only one and described at the end of the corridors sheet in a separate set of rows. The sum of the fluxes registered in the base year, and foreseen in the next year, much cope with the available capacity of the pipeline.

In Russia, some branches of corridors are replicated (segments replicated are identified with suffixes, e.g. RUS1, RUS2...) to take care of the different source area. For Russia, this is mandatory as resources are considerable, areas are far from each others and the commodity extraction can be more or less onerous. These characteristics lead to different extraction and transport costs, according to the area of origin of the resource, even if the original country is the same.

Open sea corridors are characterised by the same five elements as the captive ones. In addition, they have an indication of how many chokepoints the ship has to pass through during its journey from origin to destination.

Open sea corridors passing through Suez Canal have a "twin" path (much longer) avoiding Suez. This was intended to allow a scenario analysis where Suez Canal, for whatever reason, is interdict.

In the corridors sheet each segment is described by the following parameters:

Name, Length, Fuel-in, Chokepoints, Fuel-consumption, Capacity, Variable operating and maintenance cost, Fixed operating and maintenance cost, Start year, Activity, Life, Investment cost, Diameter

In the resources sheet (named [commodity]_RES) the proven, probable and possible resources of the single commodity are listed when applicable (e.g. for refined products there is no resource sheet). Values are provided making use of internationally validated databases such as those produced by IEA, BP and USGS with integrations taken form national data sources (local mining ministries or gas and oil private companies).

The primary production sheet ([commodity]_PRIM) is particularly important as it links the resource with the corridors sheets.

The sheet contains the information about the capacities of the single representative field extracting infrastructures together with data on fluxes in the base year. For each representative field, data on extraction costs are provided.

In a separate sheet ([commodity]_CORR_NONEU), some of the most important links form Extra EU countries to Extra EU countries are listed.

These corridors, described with the same criteria of the to-EU corridors, are intended to increase consistency in the oil supply trade around the world. Particular attention is given to those corridors that start from countries which supply ALSO Europe. These corridors are in competition with the "European" ones. The costs of these corridors were carefully calculated so as to maintain a reasonable homogeneity in competitiveness.

In the case of oil, RPP and coal, an important feature of an open sea corridors is the bottleneck of a port. A proper sheet for describing import and an export port sheet is provided. The idea is that a receiving or a shipping port has a capacity which is not overloaded in the base year but which could be extended at a cost in the next years if required. The ports listed are representative ports. This means that capacities of ports of the same country have been summed up to give the overall receiving capacity of the country. In some cases, the capacity has been shared between two representative ports (e.g. on the Mediterranean and on the Atlantic coast).

In the case of natural gas, there is an additional sheet to take into account for the liquefaction process (secondary production). LNG plants are associated to their ports and the capacity provided is the one of the liquefaction plant. Of course the receiving ports, with their capacity, are also the site of regasification. In an appropriate sheet the capacity of these ports/plants and the costs for a future expansion are provided.

2. The energy corridor modelling - the RECOR structure

The TIMES REACCESS CORridor model (RECOR) represents in detail the status and possible future developments of the 'energy corridors' system bringing energy from suppliers to consumers. Compared to the most used representation of trade in TIMES energy models, it maintains and valorise, as much as possible, also the spatial characteristics of the commodity routes, in addition to the technological, economical and environmental ones, usually considered in previous modelling exercises.

RECOR represents all the corridors of the DBT and uses all the technical-economic and geographical information of the DBT. Each trade corridor is defined by an origin/destination pair: this means that the number of trade processes to take into consideration became very high, but the benefit resulting from the full traceability of the commodities has been considered of primary interest for the analysis of EU and MS supply strategies.

To each corridor a socio-political risk parameter is associated, which reflects the different levels of reliability of the country where the corridor originates (supply country) or through which it transits. In the case of ships this reflects problems related to 'choke points' In order to characterise each model variable with an elemental risk parameter and to build an explicit system risk indicator (see below) to be added to the objective function, the capabilities of the MARKAL-TIMES methodology have been extended.

The REACCESS model assumes that all infrastructures connecting the Member States are built timely in order to ensure that the internal market becomes a reality.

The REACCESS model represents separately and explicitly the following 'energy corridors' (port to port, short and long routes):

Crude oil pipelines: 2 main corridors from Russia (with 6 feeders and up to 16 segments), with multiple origin-destination connections; from Russia and Central Asia and Caucasian regions

Crude oil shipping routes:

World: 537 open sea connections from 33 exporting countries/regions to 30 importing countries

EU: 337 open sea connections from 24 exporting countries/regions to 14 EU importing countries

Oil products shipping routes:

World: 237 open sea connections from 35 exporting countries/regions to 25 importing countries

EU: 159 open sea connections from 12 exporting countries/regions to 13 EU importing countries

Natural Gas pipelines: 17 corridors (with 1 - 20 segments each), with multiple origin-destination connections; from North Africa, Russia and Central Asia and Caucasian regios

LNG shipping routes:

World: 109 open sea connections from 14 exporting countries/regions to 16 importing countries

EU: 34 open sea connections from 10 exporting countries/regions to 7 EU importing countries

Coal tanker routes:

World: 182 open sea connections from 10 producing countries/regions to 27 importing countries

EU: 145 open sea connections from 10 producing countries/regions to 17 EU importing countries

Uranium shipping routes: 7 open sea connections

Biomass shipping routes: 25 open sea connections, from 9 producing countries/regions

HVDC lines: 16 connections from 7 MENA producing countries/regions to 16 EU Countries

Hydrogen routes: 12 corridors (5 pipelines and 7 open sea connections)

Oil and gas corridors originating in the North Sea and supplying EU are also described and modelled.

Energy resources and corridors are especially subject to availability and security issues that are highly dependent on the geographical setup of the energy supply systems.

A distinction was been made between captive and open sea corridors: while captive corridors are spatially fixed, open sea corridors can be identified within a certain spatial range.

The digitalization of the corridors has been carried out based on a large number and types of information. Technical literature and maps showing oil and natural gas pipelines, existing energy Atlases and geographical datasets regarding energy infrastructures, texts, tables and maps produced by National Bodies and International Organisations, satellite images, documents and figures on shipping traffic densities and every other document upon international energy trade have been widely used for the digitalisation of the corridors. It must be noticed that the energy corridorsand routes identified in REACCESS are mainly "functional" infrastructure more than completely "physical" ones; nevertheless, their GIS representations are sufficiently accurate for allowing the spatial analyses required for the risk and environmental impact evaluations.

From the point of view of the SW utilised, the ESRI ARCGIS environment has been the main tool together with Google Earth background; each object represented on the maps (nodes and segments) has bi-univocal reference in the DBT corridor description: resource fields, pipelines, ports, LNG plants.

3. The PanEU27++ TIMES structure update

In framework of the REACCESS project, the Pan European TIMES model (PET) model was revised. In general all input parameters and data checked, updated or improved.

The most demanding task was to update all energy flows to the 2005 energy balances, as well as recalibrating to 2005 the assignment of final consumption to the detailed end uses. Furthermore, taking into account recent economic downturns, the development profiles of the demand for energy services were revised, by updating the most important macroeconomic drivers and rerunning the pre-modelling procedures that calculate the exogenous demands.

In parallel the geographical scope of the model was extended to Western Balkan countries: six new regions (Serbia - including Kosovo-, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR of Macedonia, and Montenegro) were added to the model. This way the model is prepared to include in the EU energy scenarios the new accession countries and related energy trade flows.

The trade of high voltage electricity was represented with many more detailed data: all existing and planned grid infrastructure, the most recent statistics about exogenous import/exports flows, and more precise information on efficiency and costs of grid and trade infrastructures. Trade infrastructures are characterized with their efficiency and costs. In the present version of the model whatever model region can exchange all the main energy commodities (and CO2 permits) with all the other regions.

The model also include the re-gasification plants to take in account the liquefied natural gas imported by ships (existing and planned plants). Natural gas trade is now extended to seasonal exchanges. All main commodity groups are now traded endogenously in the PET model.

The representation of the nuclear sector was strongly improved. Instead of having a single representative plant, all the existing nuclear power plants have been represented one by one, with their technical economic characteristics. The nuclear fuel chain, from uranium ore to enrichment and fuel fabrication, was added in front of the nuclear power plants.

Also the representation of renewable energy technologies has been checked. In particular, given the expected importance of wind energy converters in next few years, the potential of on and off-shore wind by country has been updated and checked, using also GreenNet model data (TU Wien).

In general all technologies represented in the data base have been checked and improved; new technologies were added, for instance CHP in industry. In this framework the link between the regional dependence of the existing technologies and the new technologies represented in the data base has been made automatic, in order to avoid undue efficiency jumps between the historical model years and the projection years. In order to check the competitiveness of new technologies among each other a new parallel tool has been set up: it calculates the production cost of each technology before running the model and is instrumental in avoiding inconsistencies among input data of similar technologies provided by different assessment procedures.

The use of the VEDA-FE software for setting up and solving the model has been improved. Through in depth analysis of the model matrix (Jacobian analysis) it has been possible to improve the scaling characteristics of the linear matrix. Through the experience, also the combination of solution algorithm was improved. Both ways make it possible to reduce solution times to a couple of hours.

The software for reading the results and preparing output tables / graphs was greatly improved, as well as a set of standard output tables for the comparison with other EU models (PRIMES).

Presently the European Countries modelled into the panEU27++ TIMES Model are reported in the following list:

EU Member States: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom,

Non EU Member states: Norway, Iceland, Switzerland

Balkan Region Countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, FYR of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo

4. The TIAM structure update

Several major changes have been implemented in order to improve the World TIAM according to the requirements by the REACCESS project.

The major modification of the model is the Regional disaggregation. It was particularly designed for the REACCESS project and has necessitated a large commitment of resources during the first 16 months of the project. It consists in isolating the EU states (plus three non-EU countries) into a single region (EUR), isolating Russia (RUS) and re-composing the other important European and Asian regions (OEE - Other East Europe, and CAC - Central Asia & Caucasus). This change required major adjustments in the database, in terms of: energy balances, available resources, installed capacities of all technologies in 2005, computation of the future growths (from 2005 to 2050) of the macro-economic drivers, trade of energy, etc.

The inputs as well as the outputs (results of the model) were validated in collaboration with partners in the REACCESS project: the Institute for the Economy in Transition (IET) from Russia, the Climate Change Coordination Center (CCCC) from Kazakhstan, and the Institute for Economics and Forecasting (IEF) from Ukraine, which have actively participated to the data collection and validation of the results related to the new regions of the model.

Other enhancements, some of them major, have been implemented into the model:

* Upgraded non-energy greenhouse gas emissions;
* Exogenous but scenario dependent emissions and/or forcing of FC gases and of other anthropogenic causes;
* Relevant computation of the associated gas;
* Updated biomass resources and production of bio-fuels; inclusion of trade of bio-fuels;
* Updated installed capacities of renewable (wind, geothermal, solar, including CSP installations) in the short-term;
* Updated short and long-term installed capacities of nuclear;
* Distinction between OPEC and Non-OPEC regions in the international trade of crude oil and other fossil products;
* Addition or revision of several technologies of the supply and transformation sector (not exhaustive list: first generation biodiesel and bio-ethanol production plants, Fischer-Tropsch plants with and without CO2 capture, oil refineries, power plants with and without CO2 capture, lead time period for capture and sequestration and for enhanced geothermal systems, plug-in vehicles, etc.;
* Deep review of energy efficiency of technologies and, more globally, of the energy system;
* More flexibility in all end-use sector processes (more electrification and "biofueling" options, continuous efficiency) ;
* Added market shares in some end-use subsectors in order to impart stability to fuel shares;
* Limited annual growths to represent more realistic, smoother, penetration rates of new technologies.

Presently the 15 TIAM regions considered in the Global REACCESS Model are:

AFR - Africa, AUS - Australia and New Zealand, CAC - Central Asia and Caucasus, CAN - Canada, CHI - China, CSA - Central and South America, IND - India, JPN - Japan, MEA- Middle East, MEX - Mexico, ODA - Other Developing Asia, OEE - Other East Europe, RUS- Russia, SKO - South Korea, USA - United States of America.

5. The REACCESS model

The REACCESS model is a unique world model that hard-links three models:

* the Pan European TIMES multi-regional model (PET36),
* the global multi-regional TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM_World), and
* the REACCESS CORridor model (RECOR) representing the technical-economic details of all 'energy corridors' which bring energy from all resource rich locations to all consuming regions.

This model is unique and was not available so far.

The REACCESS model is a large partial equilibrium model of the global energy system. It represents 51 separate regions: the 36 countries of PET36 plus the 15 regions of TIAM_World remaining after the EU region is eliminated.

In the standalone version the PET model calculates endogenously price and quantities of the inter-regional trade, but assumes exogenous prices or quantities of the energy commodities to be imported from non EU countries. When in the REACCESS model the PET36 substitutes the original EU region of TIAM_World, the original exogenous import is substituted by the RECOR model and quantities and prices of import to EU are calculated endogenously by the model. All the 51 regions of the REACCESS model compete for all the supply resources represented in RECOR.

The RECOR model reports the configuration and flows through the entire energy supply system obtained by minimizing total cost of the global system (PET, TIAM and RECOR), while satisfying the exogenous demands for energy services, and respecting the extraction constraints and the capacities of the corridor branches. Whenever needed, the model decides to install new capacity in corridor branches.

The hard-link of the three models at run time maintains the possibility to run the three models separately. It creates a new unique model that endogenously calculates for any set of objectives the optimal system development of each EU member state, each world region of TIAM_World and each 'energy corridor'.

6. Methodological approach and results of the risk indexes evaluation.

One of the main innovations of the REACCESS is the addition of risk to techno-economic models. This will allow the assessment of a new key dimension besides the traditional minimization of the cost of the energy system and the more recent analysis of environmental externalities and CO2 emissions.

Energy risk exists if there might occur a partial or total interruption of physical energy flow or a major shift in energy prices. However, variations in the price of energy goods may accordingly be viewed as a consequence of the risk of physical interruption of supply. Given that price responds "automatically" to an actual or probable interruption of energy flows to energy-importing countries, and that in the REACCESS project energy prices are an endogenous variable in the model, prices are left out of the risk analysis.

Then, from a general point of view, energy risks can be grouped into socioeconomic factors and technical factors. Socioeconomic risks are all those arising from the organization of human activity in its main forms: economic, political and social activity. Since energy is our concern, we have added a fourth distinct socioeconomic category of risk caused by the variables intrinsic to the energy sector. Technical risks, for their part, embrace all factors that might affect the normal functioning of energy infrastructure, including accidents, natural disasters or man-made actions. The environmental risk is included in the technical one as environmental impacts are usually determined by the technology or caused by an accident or a human or technical malfunction.

6.1. Socioeconomic risk factors

Socioeconomic risk factors embrace all social, political and economic (including some energy-specific) variables that influence the reliability of the exporting and transit countries and regions making up supply corridors to the EU. We have analysed this kind of risk at a country level.

Political and social energy risk are understandable concepts, but we must keep in mind that economic energy risk is not the macroeconomic risk of the country, but the energy risk caused by economic variables. Finally, the energy sector risk is the risk related to the structure, organization and natural energy resources of the energy industry of a country.

However, although energy risk in general, and socioeconomic energy risk in particular, is not directly observable in the real world, we can observe a wide range of related variables that can aid our understanding of how energy risk is formed and what its components are. All these variables share a common factor related to energy risk but, as the factor is "inside" the data, it is not directly observable. In order to reveal this hidden common factor of socioeconomic energy risk, we have used a multivariate statistical technique known as Factor Analysis.

Factor Analysis is used to quantify common co-variance or correlation, distinguishing (and measuring) the relevant factor from the rest of common factors if more than one exists. Besides it quantifies the relationship between observed variables and factors allowing to compute the relative weight or importance of each of the observed variables in the structure of the relevant factor. Finally, it allows us to compute the value of the factor as a linear function of the original variables and therefore to compute the value of the factor (factor score) for every element (country, individual, ...) of the sample.

It is also important to notice that it is not necessary to fully decide the variables to be considered in the aggregation: the method itself provides a validation procedure of the relevance of the different variables in the construction of the common factor, rejecting all those variables that are not related with the others (and thus, that are not in relation with the underlying common factor).

First of all, it was theoretically decided whether the relation between each variable and the risk factor should be direct or inverse (positive or negative). Thus, the final selection of those variables to be definitely included in each one of the risk vectors was technically driven by the sign of the coefficient that represents the mathematical relation between the variable and the corresponding factor. For each one of the 4 vectors (social, political, economic, energy), iterative Factor Analyses were conducted. For each iteration, the variables with the wrong sign -according to the theory- in the first factor were dropped, and the Factor Analysis was repeated until a common factor with every sign correct was obtained.

The results of the Factor Analysis are four energy risk indexes by country that could be summarised in one overall energy risk index.

The data used in factor analysis is not related to just one year but to a period (five or six available years). This period of time tries to capture the structural value of each variable in the first decade of the 21st century, and thus the results of the factor analysis about energy risk in each country are, from this point of view, not related to a specific year. Besides, estimating rigorously the evolution of socio-political variables like coups, wars, extrajudicial killings or the evolution of democracy in countries that are politically unstable would be very difficult and subjective. For instance the recent political events in North Africa and in the Middle East, especially in Tunisia and Egypt, had not been predicted by any analyst or think tank. Taking into account these considerations it seemed more appropriate to use for the entire project time frame the indexes calculated using the Factor Analysis, which are based on real data, rather than try to forecast unforeseeable events.

6.2. Technological risk factors

The technological risk associated to each technology has been evaluated as an externality which increases the cost of the system. Occupational risks have been also evaluated by an ad hoc survey.

The activities on the technological reliability and risk analysis of European energy supply have been carried out in two phases:

* a Risk Evaluation for people (safety, expressed in loss of lives per year) and for the environment (expressed in Euro per barrels or per year) due to accident and failures or external natural events;
* an Unavailability Evaluation, i.e. a probabilistic evaluation of the average annual loss of production of the system due to accidents and failures or external natural events and due to restoration of technical failure/accident (Risk vs. Production). It will be reported a percentage of availability for each process.

The aim was to calculate, as far as practicable, the values resulting from those two above mentioned analyses for the main energy corridors, for all infrastructures (on-shore/offshore extraction, oil refinery, transport by pipeline etc.) and energy commodities (NG, LNG, OIL, COAL, etc.), with the purpose to give input to modeling tools of WP5.

From a mathematical standpoint, Risk Evaluation is based on the well known three-terms equation putting in evidence:

1. the Frequency of occurrence of the undesired events (e.g. fire, explosion),
2. the related Effects, i.e. the impact area suffering loss of lives, reversible or not reversible damage to the environment etc.,
3. the Vulnerability, i.e. the probability that the effects can lead to damage (presence of town, people, rivers, etc.).

The Frequency of occurrence of the undesired events has been estimated by means of databases, literature info and expert judgment, the Effects by simplified models providing the extension of damage zones in case of accident, for each process related to each commodity and the Vulnerability by means of GIS data describing the target elements (people and environment) in a buffer area surrounding each process.

It has been assumed an extension of the buffer area for data collection, that is not the final effects area resulting from the accident, but a general indication of the maximum extension of the accident involvement, beyond which the elements do not suffer damage.

In case of risk evaluation for people, Damage that is the number of loss lives per event is evaluated from the overlap of Effects and Vulnerability and multiplying the result for a Fatality Level coefficient (the number of people that died because of the accident event)

So Risk can be determined by multiplying the frequency of occurrence of the undesirable accident by the related damage.

Nevertheless simplified models and quick methods for evaluation of the potentially damage areas in case of an accident have been developed, the results of analysis have been checked by means of data from literature and therefore the analysis could be considered reasonable.

It is legitimate to point out that analysis of accident risks is not limited to process plants but covers full energy chains, including in applicable cases extraction, storage and transports since accidents can occur at any of these stages.

Some models have not been developed, due to lack of data or since risk has been considered negligible for a particular process.

Starting with oil, it has been assumed that process and storage plants do not damage the environment due to the presence of ancillary equipment containment systems. Instead, production blowouts occurred from production wells are usually reported, considering small pollution, no pollution and only two of eleven caused large pollution. Therefore the environmental damage is considered only for the transportation both by pipeline and ship.

On the contrary, damage to people has been calculated for each oil process, except transport by ship, because it has been supposed that tankers during their loading are located on a rather large distance from the terminal, therefore an influence of a fire of the tanker on the terminal is not taken into consideration.

The same observations can be made for biomass commodity (bio-ethanol and biodiesel), which it has been associated with oil and considered to be a n. 2 fuels (diesel etc.) in risk evaluation.

In particular, production and storage plants of bio-ethanol and biodiesel have been associated with oil storage ones.

The damage to environment due to natural gas, liquefied natural gas and hydrogen has been considered negligible, since it does not have any risk of pollution of land or water bodies in case of loss or leakage. Therefore only damage to people has been taken into account.

In particular, production and storage plants of bio-ethanol and biodiesel have been associated with oil storage ones. With by far most fatalities is surely "Extraction" caused especially by methane gas explosions in mining. Accident in the transport stage are rare, while still accidents in the processing stage rarely result in multiple fatalities and the same for coal waste storage stage. Therefore Risk for people has been considered negligible compared with risk in extraction stage.

For nuclear chain is very difficult to make risk analysis due to the complexity of nuclear plants, the radical differences in the plant design and operational environment and the lack of information about transport and reprocessing stage. Then a preliminary analysis has been possible only for nuclear power plants.

In the electricity chain, the risk for people and environment has been ignored, because transport is considered no dangerous for persons and power plant analysis has been considered too much difficult to perform at this large scale of analysis. Only an Unavailability Evaluation has been made.

The objective of the Risk Evaluation is to add two new columns named Risk Safety (RSafety) and Environmental Risk (REnvironment) into the Data Base Template (DBT) file provided by REACCESS partners involved in data collection.

In particular, partners involved in data collection have provided the Data Base Template with information about capacity, pipeline diameters etc., whereas spatial analysts have given geo-referenced data in shape file format (.shp) for each technology, in order to know their spatial location.

Globally, the overall impact of the technological risk resulted some order of magnitude lower than the one related to the socio-economic or socio-political country risk. However, for dedicated impact evaluations, in particular for comparing energy routes, this application could be taken into account.

An additional WebGIS tool has been developed that enables an evaluation and interpretation of geographic indicators regarding their impact on supply corridor sections.

Therefore a metric has been implemented that supports the reclassification of geographic indicators in order to make single corridor sections comparable in terms of their specific impact.

The metric also supports the estimation of combined impacts triggered by several geographic indicators by applying an interference matrix.

The WebGIS framework is implemented as a real-time Web-processing service in order to allow own interpretations and sensitivity analyses of the interested user.

7. Risk implementation into the optimisation procedure

7.1. Methodology

The main methodological difficulty was the integration in an economic equilibrium framework of the global climate change mitigation objective with the risk dimension of the European energy system. This was achieved by embedding in the model framework an additional objective function and to use Multi Criterion Decision Methods (MCDM).

The country dependent socio-political risk was converted to energy supply risk by multiplying the energy flowing in each corridor / branch by the socio-political risk parameter of the country of origin / transit, to give the "Quantity of Risk Weighted Energy":

QRE(sf,f,y,ra)} = R(ra)*Q(sf,y,f,ra)

where:

f=1, 2, ...... represents one of the following fuel categories: coal ship, crude oil ship, crude oil pipeline, refined petroleum products ship, natural gas pipeline, liquefied natural gas ship, electricity, biomass/biofuel, nuclear ship, hydrogen routes;

y is a model year

sf is an index designating one by one all segments and branches of corridors carrying fuels in the fuel category f from country ra to Europe,

ra is the country where each segment or branch leaves and supplies energy in the fuel category f;

Q(sf, y, f, ra) is the energy import flow of fuel category f (in PJ) from region a through corridor s, and

R(ra) is the socio-political risk associated with the departure country ra; (R=100 when the risk is maximum, R=0 when the risk does not exist; by definition the risk associated to imports to MS from MS is zero).

The problem was to endogenize traditionally non linear concentration / risk indicators (see Appendix) in a linear programming model and explore risk dimensions, without losing the advantage of the existing large technological and geographical details. The two sources of non linearity of the Herfindahl-Hirschman (HH) concentration index have been removed as follows.

* The HH index normalizes the indexes to make them dimensionless. But normalization is useful (or even essential) only when several independent, separate systems must be compared, but not really needed when applied to a single well defined situation, as is the case with a TIMES model. By eliminating normalization, the first source of nonlinearity is eliminated.
* The HH index uses sums of squares as a means to penalize dominance of any single source (or fuel), thus encouraging diversification. In this note, the sum of squares approach is replaced by the Max operator, which is even more effective in penalizing dominant supply (and encouraging diversification), and is essentially linear.

7.2 Implementation of the Risk Indicator

The following linear indicators are defined for any model year:

For captive corridors, mainly pipelines:

RIp = SUMra SUMy SUMf Maxs {QRE(sf,f,y,ra)} = SUMra SUMy SUMf Maxs {R(s)*Q(sf,y,f,ra)}

For open sea corridors (port to port ships):

RIs = SUMy SUMf Maxs { Σra QRE(sf,f,y,ra)} = SUMy SUMf Maxs { SUMra R(s)*Q(sf,y,f,ra)}

where

QRE = Quantity of Energy at Risk

R(s) is the risk associated to the energy import Q through the segment s; it is equal to the socio-political risk of the departure country; if the segment is a gas pipeline, the risk is doubled (R=100 when the risk is maximum, R=0 when the risk does not exist; by definition the risk associated to imports from MS is zero).

RI is the global risk indicator; it is the sum over all fuel categories f, arrival member state or region MS=ra and year of the max risk weighed import flow inside each fuel category f.

Having no a priori reference point of value, the quantification of the driver is left to the model.

7.3 Implementation of the trade-off analysis

This approach, which can be put in the class of Multi Criterion Decision Making (MCDM) methods, consists in defining mathematical expressions that capture risky configurations of corridors, and incorporating these mathematical expressions into the model either as constraints or as additional terms in the objective function. It relies essentially on systemic risk indexes (also called insecurity indexes), based on the risk characteristics ("coefficients") of individual corridors. This method compromises between the pure economic dimension and the system risk dimensions.

First the base scenario is calculated, where the global risk indicator RI is free and the total system cost is minimised (or the total surplus maximised):

min [CX] = OBJ = COST

In this first optimization the value of RI is quite high, but not degenerates, because each corridor has a unique cost - due to different investment or fixed or variable cost. A second run minimises the RI= RIp + RIs:

min [RI] = OBJ = RISK

subject to the additional constraint of increasing the total system cost of no more than α% over the reference case cost (α is about 0.2% of the global system cost which for EU27 is equivalent to a total discounted system cost increase of about 2%):

CX <= (1+ α) * COST

Possible risk reduction patterns are analysed comparing the base scenario(s), with a third scenario where the maximum risk exposure is slightly more than in the above case (β is 0.1%):

RI <= (1+ β) * RISK

and the economic nature of the solution is re-established with a new cost optimization:

min [CX] = OBJ

While putting more emphasis on riskier corridors than on less risky ones, this implementation procedure essentially penalizes excessive reliance on imports from a single risky source (or from a few large risky sources); in the case of open sea corridors, the source is the supply country, in the case of captive corridors the source is the pipeline. It encourages diversification of importation corridors, weighted by their risk coefficients.

The optimization done by the model has a single composite risk objective, which attempts to merge the objectives of domestic diversity, supply diversity and supply / transit country risk, over all fuels and countries of origin. This minimisation to a large extent embodies the previous dimension of domestic energy systems vulnerability. Minimising the risk indicator RI is a direct push to diversify supply sources, but indirectly also to:

* reduce the absolute amount of energy consumed,
* increase the use of domestic resources to make import lower, and
* re-configure the overall fuel mix, in primary and end-use sectors, in order to reduce the share of fuels that come from risky sources.

When the trade-off cost-risk curve is explored, the tool reveals the set of actions to be implemented at each level of socio-political risk value; the extra cost incurred in each risk reduction case can be interpreted as the insurance fee. Policy makers indicate what amount they are ready to spend as insurance to reduce in the future the socio-political risk of their energy system. The modelling tool indicates what energy policies best achieve the goal.

Test results at different risk reduction levels have been used to verify to what extent this procedure reduces the concentration as measured by the more usual HH indicator and its risk modified version, H-H-R. We observed that the HH index computed for a single fuel sometimes decreases, but sometimes increases as the risk is reduced when going from 5*min(RI) to min(RI). The H-H-R index behaves better, because it includes the elemental risk in its computation. Therefore, in order to get as close as possible to the spirit of the optimization, a HH-R index that would include all fuels should behave more nicely that the HH-R index for a single fuel. In general it cannot be expected a smooth reduction behaviour of fuel specific H-H-R indexes, because they differ from the optimization objective.

8. Scenario identification and characterisation

The REACCESS scenarios represent significantly different pattern of use of energy corridors, when risk and climate changes are mitigated.

The energy corridors system is the innovative part of this project. Previous project tasks have identified all possible open sea and captive corridors bringing energy to Europe. Each of them, more than a thousand, has been characterised from the geographical, technical and economic point of view. All this information has then been represented in a model.

The representation of the energy corridors system is the innovative part of the REACCESS model.

The EU energy system risk indicator is the innovative part of the methodology. It embodies the two dimensions of market concentration, both at the domestic and supply corridors level, and the socio-political risk of supply / transit countries. This indicator was added to other more traditional key scenario drivers.

Main REACESS Scenario drivers

Dimension Drivers Code Unit Configurations / values

* Exogenous
Demography Population POP Number High Low
Economy GDP GDP Index High Low
International relation
s Oil Price PRICE €/bbl High Low
Science of climate change Climate sensitivity Cs W/m2 3 Hedge

* Risk
Internal market concentration Domestic primary energy flows R-CONC PJ/a free EU
Socio-political supply Energy supply R-SUP PJ/a free EU
Technological -- R-TECH -- --
Point disruptions Energy supply R-POINT -- --

* Other policy instruments
Climate change mitigation Equivalent tax CCM €/tCO2 mild Strong
Investments in energy Systems INV € 10^12 Lim Free
Energy R&D, innovation R&D €/(GJ/a) Low High
Social participation SOC % MSha Low High

After the mitigation of climate changes, which remains the most important global driver, the European energy system risk is the second important driver in this project. The identification of the key exogenous dimensions, selection of their representative drivers, quantification of alternative future values, and combination in logical consistent sets was carried out by adapting the methodologies of morphological analyses and cross-impact analyses.

Main REACCESS Scenarios

S-RISK Free Reduced
Climate Change Mitigation Low REF RISK
High CLIM RISK-CLIM

Keeping into account that the model is huge, with more than 3 million variables, only a few scenarios could be possibly built and analysed. Only two mitigation pathways are represented here, instead of the four Representative Concentration Pathways adopted for next IPCC assessment report. Week and strong mitigation pathways are analysed imposing a mild or severe CO2 equivalent tax.

The risk dimension is examined with the help of the EU energy system risk indicator. The inaction, when the risk indicator is not constraint, is compared to the optimal action from the EU wide perspective.

The four main scenarios indicated in the above table have been compiled and analysed.

Other dimensions important for this project, such as different EU energy system risk reduction levels, different values of the socio-political risk of key supply / transit countries, unavailability of single key corridors, are being analysed by mean of appropriate variants of the main scenarios.

9. Exploring different levels of EU energy security

The lessons of the past, like the 1973 and 1980 oil crises, as well as any crisis in supplying countries such as the current Libya situation, is that important energy supply disruptions have strong negative impact on the economy. According to some evaluations, a 10% drop in oil supplies would mean real growth shrinking by close to 2% between one and two years after the shock.

According to a declaration of the EU Commissioner for Energy, "energy security has a price - political and economic. But we can be sure that the cost of energy security will be small compared with the alternatives - economic instability and geopolitical tension". Supply interruptions not only entail economic and social costs, which may pose a direct threat to the viability of a country's economic model, but also to security at large, both foreign and domestic.

As a first example of policy assessment, the REACCESS modelling tool is used to evaluate what insurance fee is preferable to pay in order to reduce energy system security risks. Technically this is achieved by means of the Risk-Cost trade-off analysis.

The trade-off curves are built by running the REACCESS model several times, 16 in this example. The first two scenarios build the base cases, without (REF) and with (CLIM) climate change mitigation objectives.

Each base case is followed by a sequence (7 in this exercise) of scenarios, where the REACCESS system Risk Indicator is progressively reduced to reach the minimum point. Each point on the Trade-off Curve represents a complete scenario in the Cost-Risk diagram. Cost is the percent increase over the total system cost of the reference case and Risk is the total value of the REACCESS Risk Indicator (RI) related to max Quantity of Risk weighted Energy (QRE) that supplies Europe summed over the years in the period 2018-2047 (in Million PJ multiplied by the risk of each corridor, quantified in the range 0-100).

Reducing the risk indicator by a factor of three from 62 to about 20 increases the global energy system cost by about 0.5%, which in the 2020-2030 decade implies extra energy system costs of almost 1% for EU27 itself. Higher risk reduction factors become comparatively more expensive, with cost increasing steadily and almost linearly by another 0.5% for each 4 million point risk reduction.

The shape of the two trade-off curves suggests that the best compromise point between cost and risk is at a risk reduction level of between three, without climate change mitigation, and four, in the more probable case of strong climate change mitigation efforts. These estimates are obtained by identifying visually the inflexion points of the two trade-off curves. In this exercise the suggested annual insurance fee for EU27 would be of the order of 25-30 billions €2000, almost 0.2% of the expected GDP in the period 2020-2030.

According to the indications of the REACCESS model, this additional cost would be used mainly in improving the efficiency of end-use sectors and harnessing more domestic resources - renewable and unconventional fossil.

10. Assessing synergies between mitigation and security

The second example of policy assessment is the analysis of the interplay between the global goal of mitigating climate changes and the European goal of reducing dependence and vulnerability of the energy system. In other words it seems interesting to understand in a quantitative way in which fields the policy objective of climate change mitigation contributes to the objective of energy system security and vice versa.

As expected, the task of participating to the mitigation of global climate changes turns out to be much more expensive for Europe than reducing the risk of the EU energy system security, as it increases the total system cost of about 5% yearly in the decade 2020-2030. However the climate change mitigation effort makes the extra cost of reducing the risk lower than in the absence of this climate objective. Reducing the energy security risk of EU27 to the same level as in the RISK scenario implies total system cost increases of about 0.2%, i.e. a cost increase from 5% to 5.3% on an annual basis in the decade 2020-2030. This cost of achieving higher energy security is lower when global climate changes objectives are in the EU27 agenda, due to synergies at several levels.

Like energy system security objectives, climate change mitigation objectives have the effect of reducing the EU27 dependence on total final energy consumption in most sectors and fuels, in particular on electricity, by using more efficient end-use devices and shifting consumers' demands to less energy intensive sectors By reducing the total primary energy supply climate change mitigation objectives are indirectly as effective as energy security risk reduction policies: total fossil import in 2040 reduce in both scenarios from about 63 EJ (REF) to about 46-45 EJ (RISK or CLIM scenarios). The part of this reduction which is not due to energy efficiency improvements in the end-use sectors is achieved by harnessing more domestic resources, mainly renewable This finding is in effect the proof that there is strong synergy between the risk and the climate objectives, as far as energy savings are concerned.

In contrast, the CLIM scenario is not very effective in achieving significant reductions in the concentration of foreign energy suppliers: the Herfindahl-Hirschman quadratic concentration index in 2040 reduces from 0.146 in REF to 0.127 in CLIM, which is not nearly as much reduction compared to the level of 0.084 achieved in the RISK scenario.

If we now turn to the reverse impact of RISK on the CLIM scenario, we observe that the EU energy security risk avert policies have very limited effects on the global climate change mitigation objectives: in the risk avert scenarios (CLIM-RISK) CO2 permits cost just a few percent less than in the simple climate change mitigation case without risk considerations (CLIM).

The analysis also proves that the energy systems of non-EU countries are not much affected by the risk consideration in EU, with or without climate strategies.

11. Identifying socio-politically risky supplies

A third example is the use of the REACCESS tool for assessing the implications of exporting / transit countries socio-political changes for the energy security in Europe. This is possible to some extent because the REACCESS model associates to each 'energy corridor' a risk, which is related to the socio-political dimension of all supply and transit countries. This elemental risk indicator ranges from 0 (no risk) to 100 (maximum risk). In the four main REACCESS scenarios the elemental socio-political risk parameters are constant over the entire time horizon of the model till 2047.

Based on the recent events in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and several other Arab countries in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) area, the REACCESS modelling team tested the effects on EU energy system of increasing by 20 points (scenario name: SPRA) or decreasing by 20 points (scenario name: CBWA) the elemental socio-political risk factor of MENA countries after 2017.

If the main RISK scenario the diversification increases the market share of Middle East (over 50% in 2040) and North Africa and reduces fossil fuels import from Russia. In the variant scenario RISK-SPRA the extra risks of Arab countries reduces the import increase from MENA countries and shifts back to Russia, mainly in natural gas import.

According to this example, the European energy system seems unable to reduce "simultaneously" the market shares of fossil fuels import from MENA countries much below the reference case. In spite of the increased risk, the risk-cost multi-criterion objective chooses to compensate lower imports from Middle East by increasing import from North Africa. This modelling exercise points out the strong dependency of EU27 energy system from the MENA countries.

Increasing the risk of MENA countries (SPRA scenario) has a very little impact on total fossil fuels consumption and import compared to the main RISK scenario. A small reduction of oil consumption after 2025 is compensated by an equivalent increase of natural gas.

The CBWA scenario is based on the opposite assumption that the political situation in the Middle East and North African Arab countries (MENA) evolves towards a reduction of the overall socio-political risk. The assumption rewards the Middle East countries and their low-cost production and exports to EU (+6% compared to the standard Risk case) over the threshold of 60% of the total fossil fuel market in 2040.

This example stresses the advantage of improving foreign relations with, and stabilising internal socio-political framework of, energy supply or transit countries, from the European energy system security point of view.

12. Effects and remedies of cutting some vital energy corridor

With the REACCESS tool the consequences for the EU27 energy system of reducing the flow through a significant 'energy corridor' can be assessed too, since the REACCESS model represents in detail the geographical dimension of the European energy supply system and each 'energy corridor' or branch is a separate model process.

Comparing the DOLI scenario variant with the mains scenarios, Russia reduces its In market shares of natural gas not only in the period around 2025 but also in the following periods. This confirms the importance of the 'Dolina hub' for Europe. The cascading effect of this unavailability, and the stronger effect of the diversification, implies the contemporary increase of the imports from the Middle East Area (Iran), North Africa (Algeria) and North Sea only a little bit more evident in the case of disruption.

In 2025 Russia looses 19 percent points of its natural gas market share if EU27 has the objective of increasing the security of its energy system (from REF to RISK scenarios. A disruption in Dolina further reduces the Russian market share of EU27 natural gas import by 7% compared (from the main RISK scenario to RISK-DOLI).

Russia (as exporter) seems very sensitive to the Risk case and less sensitive to the further obstacle due to the disruption of this hub.

The market shares of natural gas export to EU27 of the RISK-DOLI scenario variant with the main RISK scenario have very similar profiles. This result is not unexpected considering that the flows through the 'Dolina hub' are among the highest: in fact the general diversification objective of the REACCESS model - Risk Indicator RI aims at reducing the maximum Quantities of Risk weighted Energy (QRE) flowing through energy corridors to Europe.

The final consideration is that the EU system is less sensitive to a specific disruption of 'Dolina hub' than expected, and similarly to the general risk reduction objective. Russia (as exporter) seems very sensitive to the general Risk case and less sensitive to the specific obstacle due to the disruption of this hub. This confirms that the objective chosen in the REACCESS tool to explore the energy system security is very effective and achieves increasing levels of diversification of the supply.

13. New tools for dissemination activities

In the framework of the dissemination activities, in addition to the dedicated VEDA-BE shell for standard result reporting, some geo-referenced tools for the combined view of corridors and country/region model results were realised: ARCview and Google Earth representations and a new dynamic Web GIS Application (DWGA)

In particular, for each scenario run, this last GIS application (available online) reads directly the output files (.txt or .xls) produced by the model and it is able to represent tables and graphs for each geo-referenced country (import, export and extraction data) and corridor, by type of commodity.

This application can play a relevant role the REACCESS results dissemination program because it allows a complete, comparable (and easy to interpret) representation of the results and their evolution along the time horizon of the modelling analysis.

Since all data (shapes, tables,...) are stored into a dynamic Geodatabase, they can be updated and implemented at any time, inserting new corridors, tables, results, characteristics.

Due to Sesam on-line procedure restrictions, this version of the Final report does not contain Tables, Diagrams and Figures.

The full Final Report with Tables, Diagrams and Figures is attached as .pdf file.

Potential Impact:

1. Scope

Efficient dissemination is a fundamental activity in any research process, since the success of these dissemination activities contributes decisively to the utilization of project outcomes, by all interested actors and target groups. Even a project with fruitful outcomes cannot guaranty impact maximisation of its results without a direct access to the target audience. Dissemination is a horizontal activity and concentrates on disseminating the results of the REACCESS project itself to a wide range of existing or potential stakeholders. Special attention was also paid to the transfer of knowledge to the indentified target group based on a tailor made approach.

Dissemination and exploitation activities were conducted, in order to diffuse accumulated knowledge and gained experience and raise public awareness about energy availability and security of supply in national and regional level to all potential interested parties but also contribute to the recognition of the project's web site and other project deliverables and results. In addition, dissemination and exploitation activities were carried out for discussion refinement and dissemination of the methodology and models outcomes for the analysed scenarios.

The REACCESS consortium ensured the careful and early planning of all dissemination activities through a detailed Dissemination Plan worked out in the beginning of each semester, specifying the dissemination activities (D7.1). The project has established an infrastructure for communications and therefore dissemination by building a robust framework in which dialogue and interaction took place. This applied equally to internal and external communication.

Finally, the REACCESS consortium ensured through dissemination and exploitation activities that the project's research and outcomes are widely diffused to the appropriate target communities, at appropriate times, via appropriate methods, while at the same time raise awareness and interest of key energy market players on the progress achieved, the solutions indentified, the promotion of networking activities and the envisage of potential co-operations.

2. Target Groups

The REACCESS project envisaged to be beneficial for various target groups that were identified not only by their direct interest for the project results, but also by their institutional, scientific and educational status. Indeed, the results from the REACCESS project, in combination with the identified routes to market, provide benefits to a variety of stakeholders. It was, therefore, important to identify the stakeholders and their respective situation (e.g. line of activities, potential interest, position on the market, potential outreach etc.) so as to be possible to address stakeholders from their own perspective. In this respect, project's dissemination and exploitation activities focused on the following categories of target groups:

- European Commission and European Bodies: The European Commission strongly acknowledges that a secure energy supply at affordable prices is the principle element towards the European Security of Supply and the other two main targets of the European energy policy, Economic Development and Climate Change Mitigation. Furthermore, as the European energy demand and the import dependence increases, the maximum security in the European policy of energy of supply, becomes even more essential. Towards this direction, the European Commission, through its Decision on the 7th of November 2006, established the Gas Coordination Group, in order to facilitate the coordination of security of supply measures between the EU Member States (MS). It is composed of senior officials of MS' administration and representatives of industry and consumer associations, under the Chairman of the Commission. Within the above framework, the REACCESS results played important role in assisting the EU's target implementation.
- Intergovernmental and International Organisations: International organizations like the Energy Charter Secretariat, the International Association for Energy Economics, the World Energy Council and the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association, which is the global oil and gas industry association for environmental and social issues played key role in the REACCESS dissemination activities and results exploitation. Furthermore, International Organizations assisted in the establishment of contacts through access in their networks of energy concerned professionals and provided interface with strategies developed from a wider European perspective.
- EU Energy Associations: Communication of the REACCESS results and cooperation with EU Energy Associations, such as the European Energy Forum or the Energy Community facilitated the clarification of EU energy policies, the further interface with the developed strategies and instruments for specific support and faster dissemination regarding the risk of energy availability. Furthermore, these associations served as important dissemination nodes in the overall dissemination and exploitation efforts, ensuring reliable contacts that were reached through their existing communication channels.
- National and Regional Authorities: Communication of the REACCESS results with the National and Regional Authorities (Ministries, regulators etc) is important, as REACCESS facilitates and offers guidance to policy making, planning and support regarding issues of security of energy supply, as well as measures to promote a long-term strategy towards secure energy supply. Furthermore, the national and regional authorities benefit from the establishment of working partnerships, with national/local energy actors and industries.
- Energy Companies and Utilities: Energy importing and/or distributing companies and utilities (gas, oil, electricity) are stakeholders of major importance as they find practical application through the REACCESS dissemination activities and exploitation results. Through the REACCESS RECOR Model and the Socioeconomic Risk Assessment for energy corridors, the energy companies and utilities obtain a clear picture of the cumulative flows through gas pipelines, oil and LNG ships and risky gas corridors shift loads to LNG, as well as four different scenarios regarding the energy corridor's risk assessment methodology. The previously mentioned tools are essential for the energy importing and/or distributing companies and utilities, as their decision making process can be relied on realistic data and information.
- Consultant Companies: REACCESS project aims at raising awareness among decision makers and consultants in energy policy issues, in issues of energy availability, risks in energy supply and scenarios. The knowledge obtained through the project's progress serves as an important know-how tool for the acquisition and execution of future, relative, FP projects.
- Major Energy Exporters to EU27+: Major energy exporters (countries, companies) like Saudi Arabia (Aramco, etc.), Russia (Gasprom, Lukoil, Rossneft, Yukos Oil, etc.), Caspian Sea Consortium (Azerbaijan, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline), Algeria (Sonatrac), etc. comprise the principle pylons of energy supply, as EU imports a high share of energy from these regions.
- Statistical Agencies: Statistical agencies, such as Eurostat, offer statistics and detailed analysis and country profiles, regarding the EU and candidate countries. The particular environment provides data regarding natural gas, coal, hydroelectricity, nuclear energy, electricity and renewable, therefore, placing the appropriate background for the communication of the REACCESS results and their further dissemination and exploitation to all interested parties.
- GIS Databases: One of the REACCESS results is the GIS tool, based on Google Earth Application, in which all the identified and defined energy supply routes have been graphically represented and analysed, with reference to their spatial characteristics and interactions. The tool's integration, as a feature in the GIS databases and the embedment of the results obtained through the GIS tool to the data provided through the GIS databases, further assisted in the REACCESS dissemination of activities and exploitation of results
- Academic & Scientific Institutions: Academic and scientific institutions assisted in the exchange of knowledge, experiences and expertise with groups undertaking similar work within Europe, therefore, creating bilateral contacts, which supported the further dissemination and exploitation of the REACCESS results. Furthermore, an efficient transfer of know-how regarding energy supply availability was enabled, through academic and scientific institutions, and therefore, further disseminating the project results. Finally, the academic and scientific institutions indirectly serve as the evaluation channel of the potential user's response regarding the tools developed and knowledge acquired.
- Civil Society: The general public is a very large target group, in both its functions as a decision-maker and as an economic actor. One of the major actions of the REACCESS project was the awareness rising towards scenarios and risks of energy supply and the means towards their minimization in order to change social perception. There is an increase interest regarding the globalization of such issues, familiarization with the topics of energy supply diversification, energy efficiency and sustainable energy through educational programs and establishment of links between education and community and local authorities so that the knowledge acquired can be translated into practice.

3. Communication Means

REACCESS Consortium acknowledged the fact that efficient dissemination is a fundamental activity in any research process, since the effective dissemination and exploitation activities contribute decisively to the short and long term success of the REACCESS project - as measured through knowledge usage and degree of adoption by external entities and target audiences.

The Project's Consortium has accomplished a wide, regional and international dissemination through a number of complementary channels, various forms and mechanisms, such as the web site, international conferences, workshops, seminars, events and forums, publications, briefing notes, dedicated newsletters and leaflets and other relevant material. In addition, the project has accepted the kind invitation of the FP6 PRESSENSAVE project - Press to Energy Savers - aiming at enhancing visibility of REACCESS communication activities. This highly diversified disseminations activities addressed the various target groups of REACCESS research, by fully respecting their particularities.

All the partners have been encouraged to be involved in the dissemination and exploitation activities. Specifically, the partners were prompted to: present the project results at conferences or other events; participate to workshops in order to allow more detailed discussions on the results and take possible feedback from other experts; prepare papers for conference proceedings or journals; and take part in the preparation of the REACCESS Newsletters.

4. Consortium's Exploitation Strategy

The exploitation strategy is different from dissemination, although a comprehensive exploitation strategy includes and relates to dissemination activities. Dissemination focuses solely on publishing good practices, whereas exploitation is much more about cooperation, continuous development, project results utilization and incorporation to training systems and practices.

The results and expertise gained through the REACCESS project outcomes were mainly exploited for research, training, consultant purposes and service provision. Due to the specific nature of the project, the main actions that were taken towards exploitation relate highly to results' dissemination.

The exploitation of the project's results was planned by the consortium focusing on two main approaches. The first concerns an internal exploitation, within the project's framework, where academic institutions increase their know-how and experience in key scientific fields, as well as they enhance their exposure through various publications and presentations in scientific journals, while the second approach consists of a direct external exploitation, through the realization of the benefits offered by adopting the project's results, towards all the identified target groups and interested stakeholders. The REACCESS Web Site presence includes all the consortium's activities and detailed information regarding the project.

5. Main Dissemination Activities and Exploitation of Results

5.1 Planning and Conducting Dissemination Activities - Task 7.1

REACCESS Logo

Several alternative logos have been prepared and discussed among the Consortium partners and the REACCESS logo was selected (M1) as a result of several attempts to communicate the REACCESS goals. The project logo was distributed to all consortium partners in high quality copies.

REACCESS Dissemination Plan

The implementation of a variety of dissemination activities was envisaged by the periodic Dissemination Plan (submitted to the Commission), promoting networking activities and fostering potential co-operations. Moreover, the six versions of the Dissemination Plan (D7.1) were delivered in M3, M9, M15, M21, M27 and M33 and targeted to address all dissemination activities already implemented and propose related strategies to be followed for the diffusion of the REACCESS project main outcomes and results among a wide target audience as well as all interested parties, such as the users, the scientific community, the Governmental Institutions, the involved industry and the general public. Additionally, within these versions of the Dissemination Plan, the effective policies and practices that have proved to be particularly successful during the previous dissemination efforts were recognised and methods to be integrated were proposed.

Academic Publications/ Presentations in Various Events in National, Regional and International Level

Radio UNED: Towards the direction of disseminating REACCESS outcomes, UNED participated four timesin a Spanish radio program (M1, M4, M5, M11), the "Revista de Economía, Empresa y Turismo", which was broadcasted by a public nationwide radio station, addressing four different topics, namely, "Relevance and perspectives of Latin America in the energy world market", "Energy security in the EU: the REACCESS project", "Energetic Security: First results of the REACCESS project" and "Research group on international political economy and energy" by José María Marín Quemada and Enrique San Martín González.

TV UNED: F-UNED has participated three times in a Spanish TV program (M30, M31, M34) presenting various topics, such as "Energy for the European Union (I): Towards a Sustainable Future", "Energy for the European Union (II): Geo-economics of energy supply" and "Energy for the European Union (III): The challenge of the RES in Spain.

REACCESS Publications: The REACCESS consortium made several publications of various scientific papers in international, peer-reviewed, interdisciplinary scientific journals and participated in several International Conferences, during the three years of the project's implementation (M4, M5, M12, M14, M22, M24, M25, M26, M27, M28, M30, M31, M35, M36).

In particular, in May 2008, February 2009, October 2009 and during 2010 (M5, M14, M22) F-UNED published nine papers about energy economics in various journals. These are the Spanish monographic journal "Información Comercial Española - ICE", which constitutes one of the most important economic journals written in Spanish and it is published by the Ministry of Industry, the "IX Jornadas de Politica Economica" published by Caja Rural de Granada, the "Energy XXI Century: European Perspectives and Global Trends" published by the Institut Universitari d'Estudis Europeus, the "Cuadernos de Energia" published by the Club español de la energía and the "Economia Industrial" published by the Ministerion de Industria, Turismo y Comercio.

So far, within the REACCESS project's framework several papers were implemented for publication in International Journals. In particular, these journals are peer reviewed for disseminating results of research related to/or relevant for the management of the energy sector or for the reporting and investigation of economic and political trends and issues related to the use of fossil fuels and alternate fuel sources, namely the "International Journal of Energy Sector Management - IJESM (Emerald Group Publishing Limited)" and the "Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy (Taylor & Francis Group)", the Proceedings of the "3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment (ICEE 2009)", published by IEEE Xplore Digital Library. In particular, fifteen (15) papers were published in total where, nine (9) were developed by F-UNED and five (6) were implemented by NTUA-EPU.

The abstracts of all published REACCESS papers can be found in the different versions of the REACCESS Dissemination Plan (D7.1) and a detailed description of the above mentioned papers is given in Template A1.

Each REACCESS Work Package was structured through Tasks with relative Technical Notes (TN's), in order to develop the project activities in a coordinated manner. Several short Technical Notes (TN's) had been drafted during the project implementation, concerning key topics that were addressed within the framework of REACCESS. The TN's dealt with aspects that arose either during workshops and conferences or during the planning and implementation of the Work Packages. Special emphasis was laid on their form in order to be publishable, as well as practical and handy. As a consequence and also for the convenience of all partners and interested parties, a template was created and applied in the TN's writing format. This template can be found in the REACCESS Web Site (in particular, in documents of the Partners area, in the Internal Working Papers section). Moreover, constant efforts were made so as the TN's to be commented and upgraded at every meeting and workshop, a process that contributed towards their completion, as well as towards the optimization of their structure in order to serve their purpose. In addition, the TN's were formed in such a way that enabled their dissemination through the project Web Site, not only among the partners, but also to anyone interested in relative topics. All TN's that have been developed during the project implementation can be found posted on the REACCESS Web Site, providing constant update, regarding the research's course, the concerned relevant issues and their means of confrontation. Finally, the posted TN's served as a tool of knowledge, scientific expertise and know how between the project's partners.

REACCESS Participation in Conferences, Workshops and Seminars: REACCESS presented the project's objectives and results in several events, forums, workshops and conferences. The scope was to inform governmental, academic and other interested bodies and groups, to raise awareness of key energy market players about the REACCESS results and outcomes, to present forthcoming events, to facilitate the exchange of information on energy security issues, as well as guiding towards the efficient implementation of the dissemination strategy and promoting the exploitation of the project's results.

In the above context, REACCESS objectives were presented during the "3rd International Exhibition on Energy Saving and Renewable Energy Sources - EnergyRes '09", which was supported by the EU Sustainable Energy Week, on the 19th - 22nd of February 2009, in Athens, Greece (M14). During the four days of the International Exhibition, which served as a communication channel aiming the scientific information, the emergence of new technologies and the promotion of companies and public awareness campaign on energy and environmental issues, NTUA-EPU, as an exhibitor, distributed the REACCESS leaflet and shared informative material regarding the project, to all interested parts. Furthermore, NTUA-EPU, also participated in all exhibition's parallel events as well as in the EnergyRes '09 Scientific Forum, where the REACCESS project was presented.

DLR in September 2009 (M21) participated in the "SolarPACES 2009 Conference", held on the 18th of September 2009, in Berlin, Germany, as well as in the "Energy Security Conference", held on the 24th of September, in Brussels, Belgium. DLR made two presentations, the "Global potential of concentrating solar power" and the "Europe - Middle East - North Africa energy security based on Trans-Mediterranean cooperation". In addition, the 2nd version of the REACCESS Newsletter was distributed.

In November 2009 (M23) DLR actively participated in the lectures organised within the framework of the Professional MBA on Energy Management, in Abu Dhabi, UAE, on the 29th of November - 2nd of December 2009. The 3rd version of the REACCESS Newsletter as well as informative material was disseminated.

In addition, NTUA-EPU participated in the "3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment 2009 - ICEE 2009" held on the 7th - 8th of December 2009, in Malacca, Malaysia (M24). Within this framework, NTUA-EPU had the opportunity to distribute the REACCESS leaflet, along with the 4th Newsletter (M24) to a wide contact list and to share informative material, regarding the project to all interested parties.

POLITO participated in the GIS Day 2009, held in Turin, Italy on the 4th of December 2009 (M24). During the particular event POLITO had the opportunity to disseminate the REACCESS project and objectives through a presentation entitled "GIS and Energy: GIS Applications inside the REACCESS Project".

Moreover, F-UNED participated in the "EU Environmental Policy for Candidate and Potential Candidate to the EU Seminar", held in Spain (M24). This event offered the opportunity for the REACCESS project further dissemination through the presentation of "Promoting Renewable Energies: The Spanish Case".

DLR in January 2010 (M25) participated in the "NATO's Partnerships - The Oberammergau Symposium 2010", held on the 20th - 21st of January 2010, in Oberammergau, Germany. Main project results were depicted through the presentation of "Trans-Mediterranean Cooperation for Energy Security".

Additionally, in M25 F-UNED's participation in the "V Congreso De La Asociación Española para la Economía de la Energía - AEEE)", held in Vigo, Spain, resulted in the dissemination of the REACCESS project progress through the presentation of "The shift towards the East EU energy supply and the evolution of socio-economic energy risk in the period 1995-2005", as well as the distribution of the 4th REACCESS Newsletter.

Furthermore, in M25 POLITO participated in the ETSAP-TERI Workshop on Energy Modelling Tools and Techniques to Address Sustainable Development and Climate Change, held in New Delhi, India, on the 21st - 22nd of January 2010. The workshop gathered around 60 researchers and practitioners working with energy modeling all over the world, therefore offering POLITO the chance of exchanging know-how, expertise and information regarding the project's results and progress, through its presentation entitled "The EC REACCESS Project on Energy Corridors and Security of Supply in Europe".

POLITO and ASATREM participated in the Europe 2020 Agenda: A Path or Barrier to the Green New Deal: A Greens/EFA Conference held on the 3rd of March 2010 (M27), in Brussels, Belgium. E. Lavagno and G Tosato presented the "Energy Security Analysis with the REACCESS Tools", offering a description of the intermediate project results, structure of the modelling tools, and work plan for the security of supply long term scenario analyses

NTUA-EPU participated in the "Mediterranean Sustainable Energy Summit: 3rd Annual Climate and Energy Security Summit for Southeast Europe and the Mediterranean 2010", held on the 18th - 19th of May 2010, in Athens, Greece (M29). The Summit's framework offered EPU-NTUA the opportunity to disseminate the project's results and developed tools so far, through the dissemination of the REACCESS leaflet and the 5th REACCESS newsletter (May 2010 - M29), issued earlier in the same month, as well as through interactive communication with all interested parts.

Additionally, POLITO participated in the "2010 Relap5 User Seminar and Hands-On Training" organised by the European Commission (EC), the Institute for Energy (IE) and the Joint Research Center, on the 28th of June - 2nd of July 2010 (M30), in Petten, Netherlands. Apart from the informative and dissemination material; distributed in the event, POLITO also presented the "REACCESS: Risk in Energy Availability: Common Corridors for Europe Supply Security, Data Base and GIS".

Within July 2010 (M31) F-UNED participated in the "World Congress for Middle Eastern Studies" held on the 19th - 24th of July 2010, in Barcelona, Spain and presented the "Socioeconomic Risk for EU Energy Supply: Between Russia and Middle East, A Quantitative analysis". In the particular event the 5th version of the REACCESS Newsletter was distributed, as well as other related informative material.

Moreover, NTUA-EPU participated in the "11th World Renewable Energy Congress and Exhibition 2010 - WRECXI", on the 25th - 30th of September 2010, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates - UAE (M33), where informative material regarding the REACCESS project progress and results was distributed (REACCESS Leaflets)

In addition, POLITO participated in the Joint UCC-ETSAP Seminar on Energy System's Modelling Addressing Energy Security and Climate Change, held on the 15th of November 2010 (M35), in Cork, Ireland and presented the "REACCESS: Ensuring Security of Energy Supply in Europe". The event focused on the latest results on the optimal energy systems technology options to ensure future energy security and mitigate climate change.

Furthermore, the REACCESS team participated in the "1st Meeting of the EU-GCC Clean Energy Network's Discussion Groups", held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, UAE, on the 30th of November and 1st of December 2010 (M35), presenting recent tools developed and applied in EU Framework Programs and possible applications of REACCESS Energy Modelling tools for the EU-GCC energy cooperation. In particular, two presentations were made by POLITO, namely "Possible Applications of Energy Modelling Tools for the EU-GCC Energy Cooperation" and "Analysing Clean Sustainable and Secure Energy Scenarios: Recent Tools Developed and Applied in EU Framework Programs and their Potential Use in EU-GCC Clean Energy Network Activities". The REACCESS team had the opportunity to distribute the REACCESS Brochure, developed in month M34, as well as the REACCESS Questionnaire (M33), taking advantage of the knowledge and experience of all gathered key energy experts, which assisted in the enhancement and finalization of the REACCESS developed tools (M34) and the scenario analysis.

After the REACCESS project's completion (M36) the project partners continued their efforts towards the project's results and outcomes dissemination and exploitation. Within this framework, DLR, F-UNED and NTUA-EPU participated in Conferences, making announcements and disseminating material relative to the REACCESS project. In particular, NTUA-EPU participated in "1st Plenary Meeting of the EU-GCC Clean Energy Network" held on January 18th, 2011, in Abu Dhabi - United Arab Emirates (UAE), within the framework of the "World Future Energy Summit - WFES", where the REACCESS Brochure and Questionnaires were distributed. DLR participated in the "Synergistic Supergrid Conference", held on the 19th - 21st of January 2011, in London UK, while F-UNED participated in the "Economic Challenges for Energy" Workshop held on the 7th - 8th of February 2011, in Madrid Spain and presented the "Energy Security Indices in Europe".

REACCESS IC1 Book

In the framework of the 1st REACCESS International Conference (IC1) held in Turin, Italy on the 29th of February 2008, NTUA-EPU published the IC book, entitled "Security of Supply & Risk of Energy Availability", which was based on the IC1 proceedings (M5).

The REACCESS IC1 Book dissemination contributed to the successful implementation of the project by providing readers information about security of energy supply. The issues addressed by the REACCESS IC1 Book emphasize on the necessity of further investigation of all the parameters affecting the smooth and uninterrupted energy supply to Europe, as well as, contribute to the identification of the alternative practices and policies that are essential for striving towards a more sustainable energy future. In the REACCESS IC1 Book, seven selected articles presented during the 1st REACCESS International Conference, plus one article providing an exploratory analysis of energy availability risks were brought together. Each illuminated one or more of the critical issues in security of supply policy and research.

This REACCESS IC1 Book is available in the REACCESS Web Site using a special animation feature and has been circulated among the REACCESS partners and distributed to key stakeholders in events that consortium partners have participated.

REACCESS Special Issue

Within the framework of the 2nd REACCESS International Conference (IC2), which was successfully implemented in Athens, Greece on the 22nd and 23rd of October 2009 (D7.3.2) NTUA-EPU in cooperation with the International Journal of Energy Sector Management - IJESM (Emerald Group Publishing Limited) implemented all the necessary procedures regarding the publication of the REACCESS special issue, based on the IC2 Proceedings. The International Journal of Energy Sector Management is reputed to be a peer - reviewed, inter-disciplinary international platform for disseminating research results, directly pertaining to the management of the energy sector.

The REACCESS Special Issue: "Risk of Energy Availability - Common Corridors for Europe Supply Security" in the International Journal of Energy Sector Management (IJESM, Emerald Group Publishing Limited) was announced in M18 aiming to provide energy sector analysis and information on critical parameters of security of energy supply & associated risks. It is worth mentioning that top researchers and scientists were selected as reviewers, in order to insure the Special Issue's high quality and correct output, while the Editors of this Special Issue are Professor John Psarras, Dr. Alexandros Flamos and Dr. Haris Doukas. The procedures regarding the REACCESS Special Issue moved forward as 7 papers were submitted (M26) revised (M28) and accepted for publication (M31). Detailed description of these papers is depicted in Template A1. The final production and the editorial production of the Special Issue occurred in M35, while the REACCESS Special Issue was at press in M36.

This special issue contributes to the REACCESS project dissemination and exploitation of results, as it provides energy sector analysis and information on critical parameters of the complex issue of security of energy supply and associated risks, through alignment with the latest practices, innovation and case studies, academic frameworks and theories. Furthermore, the topics addressed in the special issue emphasize in the analysis of parameters affecting the smooth and uninterrupted energy supply to Europe, as well as in the identification of the alternative practices and policies, striving towards a more sustainable energy future.

The Call for Papers on the REACCESS Special Issue is also available in the REACCESS Web Site, as well as the IJESM Home Page.

Production and Distribution of Marketing Material regarding the Project's Results

Within the REACCESS project dissemination and exploitation framework, several Newsletters and Leaflets and a Brochure were prepared. These Newsletters, Leaflets and Brochure were used to provide updates on the REACCESS project and support the project's activities, achievements and results, encourage participation in forthcoming initiatives and events and further support the project's dissemination and exploitation. The particular promotional and guidance material was widely published and made available on the REACCESS Web Site, where it is worth noting that approximately 600 people visit the REACCESS Web Site each month, while the Web Site has accepted 46.201 requests since its initiation), on individual Partners' Web Sites, as well as in Conferences, Exhibitions and Forums, where the project partners participated. In particular, this REACCESS dissemination material is listed below.

REACCESS Newsletters:

1st REACCESS Newsletter: The first issue of the REACCESS Newsletter has been developed and released for internal and external distribution (M6). The aim of this first issue was to introduce the project, the project's objectives and the consortium partners, providing at the same time contact details for further information. The 1st issue of the REACCESS Newsletter was e-mailed to a wide list of interested parties and to all interested Forum members. In addition, the 1st REACCESS Newsletter was uploaded on the REACCESS Web Site in order to address a general public.
2nd REACCESS Newsletter: The second issue of the REACCESS Newsletter has been implemented and published for internal and external distribution (M19). Main aim of this second issue was to inform target groups about the energy import framework of the EU-27, and specifically, the energy interconnections between the Mediterranean countries and the MENA region, as well as to present the mapped oil and gas captive corridors. Moreover, it introduced the materialised methodology of measuring the energy security (risk) for each country.
3rd REACCESS Newsletter: The third issue of the REACCESS Newsletter has been developed and issued for internal and external distribution (M22). Main objective of this 3rd issue was the announcement of the 2nd International Conference, Work Session and Advisory Board (IC2) "Energy Corridors modelling and Related Scenarios", which was held by NTUA-EPU in Athens, Greece, on the 22nd - 23rd of October 2009 (D7.3.2) where the results of the energy routes' characterization and risk/availability evaluation methodologies were introduced. Furthermore, the third issue of the REACCESS Newsletter presented the objectives achieved during the project's first year, while it also introduced the efforts, mainly addressed, in the second year. Within the particular framework, the results obtained from the First Work Session, held in Torino on the 19th - 20th of February 2009, were briefly presented.
4th REACCESS Newsletter: The fourth issue of the REACCESS Newsletter has been invoked and released for internal and external distribution (M24). Among the goals of the 4th issue was the dissemination of results obtained from the successful implementation of the 2nd International Conference in Athens. Furthermore, the 4th issue of the REACCESS Newsletter introduced the incorporated website Online Modelling Tools, namely the Economic and Socio-political Index, the REACCESS RECOR Model - e-platform, the Visualizing Energy Corridors and the GIS Web Portal.
5th REACCESS Newsletter: The fifth issue of the REACCESS Newsletter has been implemented and released for internal and external distribution (M29). Main goal of the 5th issue was the dissemination of the methods and tools which provide graphically quantified outputs of the energy corridors' socioeconomic risk assessment, evaluation of the existing, planned and possible future infrastructure in terms of energy corridors supplying the EU27+ energy market, through the utilization of a high dynamic web GIS application and presentation of the techno- economic characteristics of the energy corridors, which enable comparison across scenarios, or simultaneous viewing of multiple data tables from a single scenario. Namely the 5th issue of the REACCESS Newsletter introduced the Socioeconomic Risk Assessment for Energy Corridors, providing five different aggregation methods, the Dynamic Web GIS Application, graphically representing and analysing energy supply routes with reference to their spatial characteristics and interactions and the REACCESS RECOR Model - E-Platform, which, before its' integration with the global TIAM model, was tested in a standalone mode.

All issues of the REACCESS Newsletter have been disseminated to a vast list of interested parties, distributed to an extended number of interested parties and are also available on the REACCESS Web Site.

REACCESS Leaflets:

1st REACCESS Leaflet: The first coloured REACCESS Leaflet has been produced (M5) and distributed in several events that NTUA-EPU (WP7 Leader) and other consortium partners have participated, such as the "3rd International Exhibition on Energy Saving and Renewable Energy Sources - EnergyRes '09" held in Athens, Greece (19-22 February 2009, M14). The aim of this first leaflet was to introduce the project, the project's objectives and the consortium partners, providing at the same time contact details for further information.
2nd REACCESS Leaflet: The second coloured REACCESS Leaflet has, also, been developed in order to serve the project's dissemination scopes (M17). The second REACCESS leaflet was created with the initiative of Politecnico di Torino (POLITO), and it contained a brief description of the project's overall mission, the project objectives, the expected results and, also, the list of partners and the contact details for all possible interested parts, so as to continue the already successful dissemination effort. The leaflet was of high quality, thus attracting the necessary attention, while the above mentioned information was fitted in a 2 sides A4 page. The 2nd REACCESS Leaflet contributed towards the internal and external distribution of the main project objectives while it was widely distributed in workshops, exhibitions and conferences, such as the "3rd International Conference on Energy and Environment - ICEE09", 7 - 8 of December 2009, Malacca, Malaysia.

REACCESS Brochure: The REACCESS Brochure was developed within October 2010 (M34), with the aim to facilitate dissemination and exploitation objectives. It introduced the REACCESS project and presented the developed REACCESS tools that are suitable for EU27 energy import scenario analysis and particular the REACCESS Economic and Socio-political Risk Index and Assessment, the REACCESS RECOR Model E - Platform and the REACCESS Web GIS Application. The REACCESS Brochure was widely distributed to various dissemination activities to interested parties, in International Conferences, Workshops, Seminars, the project Web-Site, information and dissemination events and, generally, through communication channels and co-operation mechanisms, within the project's duration.

Collaboration with other FP Projects

In an effort to expand an infrastructure for communications and dissemination, the REACCESS partners accepted the kind invitation of the FP6 PRESSENSAVE project - Press for Energy Savers - aiming at enhancing visibility of REACCESS communication activities.

PRESSENSAVE was a project fully funded by the European Commission under the FP6 of Research and Development on Sustainable Energy Systems, which was launched to support other project consortia, by integrating a powerful tool that creates positive synergies with pre-existing communication efforts. The aim of PRESSENSAVE was to provide other projects funded and running under the Energy programmes (FP6 - FP7 or others) of the European Commission, with a new powerful tool capable of enhancing the media visibility of the project.

REACCESS team considered very important the opportunity to enhance the REACCESS dissemination activities, through the PRESSENSAVE services (such as virtual press release platform, webinar, etc). NTUA-EPU registered on PRESSENSAVE website (M15), providing a brief description of the REACCESS project, its' objectives, current status and concrete results that had been achieved, REACCESS endeavoured the benefits from the participation in the PRESSENSAVE project, while it was being supported in getting in contact with the media and the press and news published about REACCESS achieved results, research carried out or REACCESS events and activities.

REACCESS project was mentioned as part of the PRESSENSAVE project's web page, while the REACCESS profile fiche (M21), containing a brief description of the project's aims, the project's objectives, along with the description of the main results achieved, was created by the PRESSENSAVE and uploaded in the PRESSENSAVE portal.

To sum up collaboration's with the particular project has led to the improved REACCESS project results' wide dissemination and exploitation, as the PRESSENSAVE project upgraded the project's communication through:

- The provision of an on-line tool (Virtual Press Office), which implements the capability of gaining visibility to the project's achievements on national and international media.
- The coverage of all communication services, with experts in online press releases, experienced journalists and professionals in dissemination strategies in EU projects.
- The integration of the dissemination strategy with a wide communication instrument, increasing the potential of media exposure.
- The increased project's visibility in all targeted European countries, where spreading information about results is more beneficial to the exploitation purposes.
- The provision of broader possibilities to influence the local, national and international policies on issues related to energy supply security.

5.2 Project's Web Site Development (Task 7.2)

The project's Web-Site address had been reserved and is: M2. In M2 an initial project Web-Site architecture was set up and the official REACCESS Web-Site design was decided through an electronically voting procedure among the Consortium partners (1st version of the REACCESS Web-Site). The D7.2.1 - REACCESS Web Site, Project Web-Site - was delivered in M6 as scheduled, where details about the Web Site architecture can be found. In addition, the initial layout of the project Web Site has been changed in September 2008 (M9), while modifications were continuously made in order to better serve the project's needs (M13). The 3rd version of the REACCESS Web Site layout (M15) had been enhanced and this improved version of the REACCESS Web Site (M21 & M23) included a photos animation feature in the "Home" domain presenting the last events and workshops that REACCESS team organised or participated, in an effort to attract attention. The Web Site has been continuously enhanced and enriched, with the consortium's inputs and the fruitful outcomes from the REACCESS meetings and events (M33, M36). In addition, in M33 the REACCESS web-site incorporated an online dynamic presentation of the REACCESS Questionnaires.

Furthermore, the REACCESS Web Site incorporated a workspace area for hosting an online version of three Web Site Online Modelling Tools (D7.2.2 M20). These tools are the REACCESS Economic and Socio-Political Risk Index, the REACCESS RECOR Model - e-platform and the Visualizing Energy Corridors, which were developed and integrated in the Web Site. In particular, the REACCESS Economic and Socio-Political Risk Index tool per country and per corridor is displaying a comparable measure of energy security (risk) including the social, economic, political risk dimensions of energy security through charts and graphics. The REACCESS RECOR Model - e-platform graphically represents the cumulative flows through gas pipelines for three different scenarios. Accordingly, the same process was applied in order to schematically depict the cumulative flows through oil and LNG ships respectively and risky gas corridors shift loads to LNG. Finally, through Visualizing Energy Corridors users have access to the schematic maps which illustrate the Coal Ports and Resources, the Gas Resources and the Oil Resources in three different figures respectively. All the integrated web tools provide useful information and diffuse the project's results towards all interested parties.

A Virtual Library was developed within the framework of the REACCESS project, in order to be a one-stop-shop targeting at anyone interested in REACCESS topics. The content of the Virtual Library section includes papers, case studies, scientific efforts and material related to the project, in order for issues addressed by REACCESS, such as risk analysis, corridors of energy supply, simulation models and others, to be easily accessible by interested users. In this way, the section contributed towards the information of the general public about the key issues addressed by the project. Finally, besides being a mean of the project's dissemination, the virtual library offers information regarding, a wide range of energy issues, therefore, comprising a valuable "data base".

The Web Site also incorporated a workspace area for hosting an electronic forum, where the users have the opportunity to discuss about issues within project's interest as well as to exchange information, gather input and evaluate results on the problems that REACCESS addresses facilitating at the same time the promotion of networking activities and the fostering of potential co-operations.

5.3 GIS Web Portal as Part of the REACCESS Web Page (Task 7.3)

The objective of this task was to produce a GIS based web application so as to visualize the relevant project results in a comprehensive and intuitive manner. Nevertheless, apart from the GIS Web Portal as part of the REACCESS Web page four more tools were developed as part of the D7.2.2 - REACCESS Web Site, Online tools - and were incorporated into a workspace area in the REACCESS web site, especially created for hosting the online version of the modelling tools.

The REACCESS GIS Web Portal (D7.2.2- REACCESS Web Site, Online Tools): The REACCESS GIS Web Portal developed as scheduled in M20, comprised the means through which representative starting points of the corridors were associated to spatial coordinate referring to the locations of source fields, main stations/plants or ports/terminals or areas/land used for biomass production or solar power generation. By using suitable GIS features, all the identified and defined energy supply routes had been graphically represented and analysed with reference to their spatial characteristics and interactions. For each commodity specific Shape files (routes, ports, fields, and infrastructures) had been created. The Web GIS Application was installed on a central device accessible through a Web network, offering, to end users the possibility of consulting on a geo-graphical background a large variety of information on the corridors and on the European energy systems. The GIS web portal's characteristics were further enhanced and enriched (M28) in order to become even more user friendly, as well as helpful and practical. Finally, after the completion of the data collection, through the REACCESS Questionnaire (M33), the GIS Web Portal was finalized, integrating the knowledge and experience of all participating experts (M34). Its development and enhancement was and will be continuous, even after the project's completion.

The REACCESS Economic and Socio-political Risk Index (D7.2.2- REACCESS Web Site, Online Tools): This e-tool displays a comparable measure of the social, economic and political risk dimensions of energy security, through charts and graphics, per country. It is extremely important for end-users, while its further development it is proposed for a longer time than the project duration.

The REACCESS RECOR Model - E-Platform (D7.2.2 - REACCESS Web Site, Online Tools): The Energy Corridors, natural gas pipelines, oil and LNG ships, whose technical economic characteristics are assembled in the Data Base Templates, are presented in the RECOR model. Before integrating it with the global TIAM model and the European PET30 model, the RECOR model is being tested in a stand-alone mode. Each set of results consists of several tables, which are categorized by sector/type. An embedded tabbed view enables comparison of a table across scenarios, or simultaneous viewing of multiple tables from a single scenario.

The REACCESS Socio-economic Risk Assessment for Energy Corridors (D7.2.2- REACCESS Web Site, Online Tools): This tool assesses the socioeconomic risk of energy corridors. By selecting the country of origin and adding points, an Energy Corridor is created and the resulting risk aggregation is schematically depicted for four different Aggregation Options. In the available Technical Note, 122 identified corridors were assessed in this respect. It has been designed for both end users and data creators.

5.4 Conference Organization and Implementation (Task 7.4)

The first International Conference (IC1) have successfully been organised by POLITO in Turin, Italy. The IC1 was held in Politecnico di Torino, on the 29th February 2008 (D7.3.1 International Workshop, 1st Conference - M2). All meeting's material, along with the minutes and the related presentations and material are available through the project website for downloading.

The second International Conference, Work Session 2 and Advisory Board (IC2) "Energy Corridors modelling and Related Scenarios" was successfully organised by NTUA-EPU in Athens, Greece. The IC2 was held in the NTUA - National Technical University of Athens campus and particular in the Multimedia Conference Room on the 22nd and 23rd of October 2009 (D7.3.2 International Workshop, 2nd Conference - M22). The main aim of the 2nd International Conference was to present the energy corridor modelling processes (risk and reliability) and the definition and composition of the energy security of supply scenarios for EU27+ (drivers, demand projections). In the margin of the IC2, the REACCESS Advisory Board discussed and commented on the recent developments, such as the economy after the crisis and its impact on the energy security of supply as well as the emerging opportunities for international cooperation with the emphasis on the renewable sources, smart grids etc.

Finally, the scope of the 3rd REACCESS International Conference - IC3 is to present the project's results, communication of useful and appropriate information, provision of energy policy recommendations and guidelines to EU energy policy makers, governmental organisations, academic institutions and key energy market players, support of the decision making process gained from the model insights. All the above, in combination with the IC3 targeted, high level and multidisciplinary audience, amplifies its role as direct dissemination and indirect exploitation of the REACCESS project results. The preparative organizational activities of the IC3 have already started. The idea is to split the presentation and discussion of the results into 2 events. The 1st event could be devoted to an in depth analysis of project results, while the second one will target policy makers for the exploitation of the tools developed and results elaborated. In this respect, the "formal" IC3 is expected to be performed - through a video-conference - on February 28th while the estimated month for the "operative" Conference's implementation is March 2011 in Brussels, with a tentative title "Risk of Energy Availability - Results and Recommendations".

Moreover, specific thematic meetings with various stakeholders were also held:

- The WP2&3 Meeting was held successfully at the DLR in Stuttgart, Germany on the 17th and 18th April 2008 (M4). The topics that were discussed concerned mostly the spatial analysis of the energy supply routes, as well as data collection issues, such as the sources and some challenges that have to be overcome. The event's Agenda, as well as the List of can be downloaded from the REACCESS Web Site.
- The REACCESS Workshop on "Data, Models and Methodologies" was held in Paris, France on the 4th and 5th July of 2008 (M7). The Workshop on "Data, Models and Methodologies" constituted a first step in the formulation of the proposals to be discussed and adopted in the Work Session 1 (February 2009). During the Workshop, candidate models and methodologies were presented and their different potential contributions were discussed, keeping in mind the feasibility of merging them and of getting an integrated model that is both manageable and yields satisfactory results. The event's Agenda can be found in the REACCESS Web Site.
- In addition, during the second quarter of the project two training courses were held in Spain and Kazakhstan respectively. Specifically, the first course, entitled "TIMES VEDA Training Course", was held in Madrid on June 9 - 12, 2008 (M6) and the second one, entitled "Advanced TIMES VEDA Training Course", was held in Astana, Kazakhstan on September 8 - 12, 2008 (M9). The objectives of both training courses were the better understanding of the MARKAL-TIMES models (paradigms, equations, applications), as well as the development of the ability of using the TIMES-VEDA tools and building a new TIMES model. The events' Agendas can be found in the REACCESS Web Site.
- Another meeting successfully organised was the Progress Meeting. The meeting was held at the DLR in Stuttgart, Germany on the 6th and 7th November 2008 (M11). The topics that were discussed concerned the general progress of the REACESS project and, in particular, issues regarding the data collection, the spatial analysis of energy supply routes and the options of the corridor modeling. The Meeting's Agenda can be found in REACCESS website.
- Moreover, the REACCESS 1st Working Session was held in Turin, Italy, on the 19th and 20th February 2009 (M14). The content of the Working Session was related to the identification of the EU energy corridors, parameters and evaluation methodologies to be used in modelling tools, as well as the progress of the modeling of Energy Corridors. The event's agenda is available on the website of REACCESS.

5.5 Exploitation Plan (Task 7.5)

The REACCESS Exploitation Plan (D7.4) was elaborated in June 2010 (M30). Objective of the REACCESS Exploitation Plan was the definition and description of an effective and coherent strategy for the usage of the complete and tailored set of instruments, tools and mechanisms of the REACCESS project, as well as its objectives and results.

Target audiences for the Exploitation Plan's external communication were future co-operators in business, science, energy institutions and governmental audiences, as well as the interested public and EU-audiences, while target audience for internal communication are partners, executives and the members of the consortium.

The REACCESS Exploitation Plan could be the means through which the expertise gained within the REACCESS project will comprise the seed for research and technological development for either improving or developing new processes or services in the energy supply sector.

List of Websites:

REACCESS Web-Site

The REACCESS project public Web-Site address is: http://reaccess.epu.ntua.gr/

Contact Details

Project Coordinator Name: Prof. Evasio Lavagno

Project Coordinator Organisation Name: POLITO

Address:

POLITECNICO DI TORINO
Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24
TORINO, 10129, ITALY

E-mail: evasio.lavagno@polito.it
Tel: +39 011 090 4429
Fax: +39 011 090 4499

Dissemination Leader Name: Prof. John Psarras

Dissemination Leader Organisation Name: NTUA - EPU

NTUA - EPU Contact Person:
Dr. Haris Doukas

E-mail: h_doukas@epu.ntua.gr
Tel: +30 210 7722083
Fax: +30 210 772 3550

Address:

Management & Decision Support Systems Laboratory
School of Electrical and Computer Engineering
National Technical University of Athens
9, Iroon Polytechniou str., 157 73, Athens, GREECE

Final Report Summary - REACCESS (Risk of Energy Availability: Common Corridors for Europe Supply Security)

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