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interconnecting Knowledge for the early identification of issues, events and developments (e.g. wild cards and associated weak signals) shaping and shaking the future of STI in the ERA

Objective

In recent years, Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for the development and implementation of research and innovation policies with long-term perspectives. Much futures work and Foresight exercises are little more than extrapolations. Some activities show an interesting mix of approaches combining three types of elements: prospective studies of long-term opportunities and alternatives, participatory networking, and policy orientation. However, far too little attention has been paid to the identification and analysis of wild cards and weak signals (WI-WE). But two things are widely agreed upon in discussions of high-impact but low-probability events. First, it is vital to examine such events. Some of them are almost bound to happen, even if we cannot say what these are. Many organisational crises relate to failure to spot surprising developments sufficiently far in advance. The weak signals that might warn of an impending wild card have been ignored. Second, our methods for identifying and detecting WI-WE are woefully underdeveloped. The reason that most futurists use examples of wild cards to wake up their audiences, but do not then follow through on this, is that there is relatively little that is formalised and reproducible in WI-WE analysis. The proposed study will provide answers to these questions, by mounting a sustained and multi-method effort to explore approaches to conceptualisation of WI-WE that can inform practice; establish tools for WI-WE analysis; and to additionally validate these in a specific application areas. The application area in question is the European Research Area. Wild cards and weak signals relevant to the future of the ERA will be the substantive focus of the study: so we will talk about conceptual and methodological contributions on the one hand, and on the other, we will talk about substantive results. The study will generate, systematise, and make available policy-relevant WI-WE bearing heavily on the ERA.

Call for proposal

FP7-SSH-2007-1
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Funding Scheme

CP-FP - Small or medium-scale focused research project

Coordinator

THE UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER
Address
Oxford Road
M13 9PL Manchester
United Kingdom
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
EU contribution
€ 258 327
Administrative Contact
Liz Fay (Ms.)

Participants (7)

TURUN YLIOPISTO
Finland
EU contribution
€ 113 686
Address
Yliopistonmaki
20014 Turku
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Administrative Contact
Eliisa Särkilahti (Dr.)
Z_punkt GmbH
Germany
EU contribution
€ 90 462
Address
Anna Schneider Steig 2
50678 Koln
Activity type
Private for-profit entities (excluding Higher or Secondary Education Establishments)
Administrative Contact
Gereon Uerz (Dr.)
RTC NORTH LIMITED
United Kingdom
EU contribution
€ 84 731
Address
Loftus House Colima Avenue Sunderland Enterprise Park
SR5 3XD Sunderland
Activity type
Other
Administrative Contact
Sarah Hart (Ms.)
TECHNOLOGICKE CENTRUM AKADEMIE VED CESKE REPUBLIKY
Czechia
EU contribution
€ 71 015
Address
Ve Struhach 1076/27
160 00 Praha
Activity type
Research Organisations
Administrative Contact
Lysý Bohumil (Mr.)
INTERDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR TECHNOLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
Israel
EU contribution
€ 78 480
Address
Tel Aviv University Ramat-aviv
69978 Ramat Aviv Tel Aviv
Activity type
Research Organisations
Administrative Contact
Tal Soffer (Dr.)
MEDIATUOTANTO MINDCOM OY
Finland
EU contribution
€ 68 760
Address
Microkatu 1
70211 Kuopio
Activity type
Private for-profit entities (excluding Higher or Secondary Education Establishments)
Administrative Contact
Juha Lång (Mr.)
CYBER FOX SRO
Czechia
EU contribution
€ 74 400
Address
Verdunska 6
160 00 Praha
Activity type
Private for-profit entities (excluding Higher or Secondary Education Establishments)
Administrative Contact
Jan Klusacek (Mr.)