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interconnecting Knowledge for the early identification of issues, events and developments (e.g. wild cards and associated weak signals) shaping and shaking the future of STI in the ERA

Objetivo

In recent years, Foresight has emerged as a key instrument for the development and implementation of research and innovation policies with long-term perspectives. Much futures work and Foresight exercises are little more than extrapolations. Some activities show an interesting mix of approaches combining three types of elements: prospective studies of long-term opportunities and alternatives, participatory networking, and policy orientation. However, far too little attention has been paid to the identification and analysis of wild cards and weak signals (WI-WE). But two things are widely agreed upon in discussions of high-impact but low-probability events. First, it is vital to examine such events. Some of them are almost bound to happen, even if we cannot say what these are. Many organisational crises relate to failure to spot surprising developments sufficiently far in advance. The weak signals that might warn of an impending wild card have been ignored. Second, our methods for identifying and detecting WI-WE are woefully underdeveloped. The reason that most futurists use examples of wild cards to wake up their audiences, but do not then follow through on this, is that there is relatively little that is formalised and reproducible in WI-WE analysis. The proposed study will provide answers to these questions, by mounting a sustained and multi-method effort to explore approaches to conceptualisation of WI-WE that can inform practice; establish tools for WI-WE analysis; and to additionally validate these in a specific application areas. The application area in question is the European Research Area. Wild cards and weak signals relevant to the future of the ERA will be the substantive focus of the study: so we will talk about conceptual and methodological contributions on the one hand, and on the other, we will talk about substantive results. The study will generate, systematise, and make available policy-relevant WI-WE bearing heavily on the ERA.

Convocatoria de propuestas

FP7-SSH-2007-1
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Coordinador

THE UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER
Dirección
Oxford Road
M13 9PL Manchester
United Kingdom
Tipo de actividad
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Aportación de la UE
€ 258 327
Contacto administrativo
Liz Fay (Ms.)

Participantes (7)

TURUN YLIOPISTO
Finlandia
Aportación de la UE
€ 113 686
Dirección
Yliopistonmaki
20014 Turku
Tipo de actividad
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Contacto administrativo
Eliisa Särkilahti (Dr.)
Z_punkt GmbH
Alemania
Aportación de la UE
€ 90 462
Dirección
Anna Schneider Steig 2
50678 Koln
Tipo de actividad
Private for-profit entities (excluding Higher or Secondary Education Establishments)
Contacto administrativo
Gereon Uerz (Dr.)
RTC NORTH LIMITED
United Kingdom
Aportación de la UE
€ 84 731
Dirección
Loftus House Colima Avenue Sunderland Enterprise Park
SR5 3XD Sunderland
Tipo de actividad
Other
Contacto administrativo
Sarah Hart (Ms.)
TECHNOLOGICKE CENTRUM AKADEMIE VED CESKE REPUBLIKY
Chequia
Aportación de la UE
€ 71 015
Dirección
Ve Struhach 1076/27
160 00 Praha
Tipo de actividad
Research Organisations
Contacto administrativo
Lysý Bohumil (Mr.)
INTERDISCIPLINARY CENTER FOR TECHNOLOGICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
Israel
Aportación de la UE
€ 78 480
Dirección
Tel Aviv University Ramat-aviv
69978 Ramat Aviv Tel Aviv
Tipo de actividad
Research Organisations
Contacto administrativo
Tal Soffer (Dr.)
MEDIATUOTANTO MINDCOM OY
Finlandia
Aportación de la UE
€ 68 760
Dirección
Microkatu 1
70211 Kuopio
Tipo de actividad
Private for-profit entities (excluding Higher or Secondary Education Establishments)
Contacto administrativo
Juha Lång (Mr.)
CYBER FOX SRO
Chequia
Aportación de la UE
€ 74 400
Dirección
Verdunska 6
160 00 Praha
Tipo de actividad
Private for-profit entities (excluding Higher or Secondary Education Establishments)
Contacto administrativo
Jan Klusacek (Mr.)