Exploitable results
The main findings of the Eva-tren analysis are the following.
- The most common and well-established (within the scientific community) theoretical approaches for transport infrastructure assessment are 'Cost-benefit-analysis' (CBA) and 'Multi-criteria-analysis' (MCA).
- As to existing practice of project assessment in the transport sector, the analysis has shown that even within Europe no single national methodology is equal to another. Decisions are mostly based on case-to-case comparisons with a changing assessment framework.
- Concerning the general methodology for transport project assessment, most countries adopt an approach where decision-making is based on the cost-benefit-ratio or the net-present value.
As to the evaluation of national guidelines for ex-post analyses of infrastructure investments, the Eva-tren analysis has shown that only two out of twelve countries has made compulsory the appraisal for verifying the results of the investment (France and the United Kingdom).
Case studies of ex-post analysis.
The main findings concerning the analysis of the ex-post reassessment of eleven projects in the transport and energy fields with a view to delivering a critical review of common mistakes and pitfalls are as follows.
- Project objectives change when the considered stakeholders change: the European Commission, the national and the regional/local authorities may have different objectives for the same project.
- Objectives change over time. For the projects with very long decision-making processes, the reference context might change quite significantly and the original objectives could become obsolete or no longer feasible.
- Costs can be negatively affected from changes in the project objectives.
- The decision-making processes are strongly country-specific. The examined projects involving more than one country did not followed homogenous procedures and were evaluated using different country specific criteria.
- Specific decision-making processes tend to ensure that the project financing decision is taken when all stakeholders have been consulted and when the requested information and analyses have been undertaken and submitted.
- There is a direct correlation between the high number of stakeholders and the length of the decision making process.
- When projects belong to networks the issue of project dependency is very relevant. In fact, in such a situation, project financial and economic performance could be strongly influenced by the implementation and the operation of other networks.
- Project dependency issues have never been analysed with sensitivity analyses and/or scenario analyses to consider the potential differences when other projects are delayed or not implemented at all.
- Interoperability is a crucial issue for the implementation of European-wide railway networks.
- Actual demand has been overestimated for almost all projects within the sample. The main drivers for demand overestimation were shortcomings of the project context as well as underestimation of the competitive scenarios.
- Since the nature of error is systematically optimistic, it is reasonable to assume that inaccuracy is the result not only of technical weaknesses, but also to the need to demonstrate ex-ante the convenience of the project.
- The main issues about project financial analysis are cost overruns and revenue overestimation.
- Almost all projects in the sample experienced cost overruns. The main causes are delays in project implementation and opening, changes in project design and changes in environmental requirements. As far as revenue forecasts are concerned, their inaccuracy is due mainly to demand analysis overestimations;
- Case studies where small or even no cost overruns occurred showed that adequate project management is one of the most effective tools to limit cost increase.
- CBA methodologies are country specific;
- The German approach is based on CBA plus a spatial and an environmental analysis. The French methodology asks for a CBA that should consider the whole external benefits and costs of the project. In particular, ex-post analysis for each project is mandatory by law after ten years of operation, following the same methodology used for the ex-ante analysis.
- The environmental dimension is of major importance for all projects in the sample. In all analysed countries environmental assessments are mandatory but to very different extent.
- The main evidence is that the earlier the integration of the EIA in the design of transport projects, the stronger its influence on the final project designing.
- The analysis of the uncertainties mainly concentrates on a project's economic performance and neglects the financial performance.
- The analysed variables are usually: implementation delays, investment costs, demand and tariffs. Variations range from ±30 % to ±20 % and proved to be too narrow and not realistic in the light of projects' actual data.
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