The project “Mediterranean Air QUality In future climate Scenarios” (MAQUIS) will improve our understanding of air quality-climate interactions in a region of the world where significant climate changes are predicted to occur in the future. In particular we will characterize air quality in the eastern Mediterranean basin in current climate conditions and in future climate conditions; quantify the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to ozone and PM concentrations and how this contribution could change for different future emission scenarios; identify the main processes in a changing climate affecting ozone and aerosol concentrations (temperature, hydrological cycle, natural emissions, dynamics); assess the effectiveness of different emission reduction policies under present-day and future climate conditions. These issues will be addressed using a modeling system composed by the WRF meteorological model and CMAQ air quality model. A set of simulations describing air quality in present-day climate and in future climate, with present-day and three different future emission scenarios will be performed and analyzed. We will apply the adjoint sensitivity analysis technique, which is very efficient in calculating sensitivities of few state variables or metrics with respect to a large number of input parameters. For this reason, the receptor-oriented nature of adjoint sensitivity analysis makes it particularly attractive for policy applications, such as identifying which are the parameters affecting population exposure and the environmental stress resulting from increased pollution levels. The MAQUIS project addresses in an integrated way scientific questions, which are contained in highly relevant European and international projects, and it can give a relevant support to advance the scientific knowledge over a region which is of high interest for social, economical and political reasons.
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