Objective Seasonal influenza affects a substantial proportion of the human population every year. Due to continued evolution of the influenza virus, a single individual can be repeatedly infected by strains differing in their antigenic makeup. Evolution of the virus population necessitates the updating of the seasonal influenza vaccine. In constructing an influenza vaccine, a particular virus strain must be chosen approximately one year in advance to allow for sufficient quantities of vaccine to be manufactured. The degree of antigenic similarity between this vaccine strain and the population of circulating strains is critically important to public health. Consequently, I propose to adapt the sophisticated methodology of state-of-the-art phylogenetic inference to allow for nuanced predictions of the future evolution of the virus population. Given the genetic sequences of past and current influenza strains, it is my goal to provide an estimate, and an associated degree of confidence, of what strain will predominant in the future. These estimates will draw from multiple characteristics of influenza strains, incorporating patterns of sequence substitution, patterns of population turnover, patterns of geographic movement and patterns of antigenic change. This methodology will be assessed by validating predictions of previous years to historical outcomes. If the resulting methodology is successful in its predictions, then it can be immediately adopted to inform public health decisions. However, if virus evolution is too stochastic, accurate prediction may be an impossibility. Regardless of the accuracy of predictions, the outcomes of this research will have substantial value to the general study of the evolutionary dynamics of virus populations. Fields of science medical and health scienceshealth sciencespublic healthnatural sciencesbiological sciencesmicrobiologyvirologynatural sciencesbiological sciencesgeneticsmutationvirus mutationmedical and health scienceshealth sciencesinfectious diseasesRNA virusesinfluenzamedical and health sciencesbasic medicinepharmacology and pharmacypharmaceutical drugsvaccines Programme(s) FP7-PEOPLE - Specific programme "People" implementing the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (2007 to 2013) Topic(s) FP7-PEOPLE-2011-IIF - Marie Curie Action: "International Incoming Fellowships" Call for proposal FP7-PEOPLE-2011-IIF See other projects for this call Funding Scheme MC-IIF - International Incoming Fellowships (IIF) Coordinator THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH Address Old college, south bridge EH8 9YL Edinburgh United Kingdom See on map Region Scotland Eastern Scotland Edinburgh Activity type Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Administrative Contact David Dougal (Mr.) Links Contact the organisation Opens in new window Website Opens in new window EU contribution No data
