Synchronisation to enhance reliability of climate predictions

Project Information

STERCP

Grant agreement ID: 648982

DOI

10.3030/648982

Project closed

EC signature date 20 April 2015

Start date 1 September 2015

End date 31 August 2021

Funded under

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Total cost

€ 1 999 388,75

EU contribution

€ 1 999 388,75

Coordinated by

UNIVERSITETET I BERGEN
Norway

CORDIS provides links to public deliverables and publications of HORIZON projects.

Links to deliverables and publications from FP7 projects, as well as links to some specific result types such as dataset and software, are dynamically retrieved from OpenAIRE .

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (31)

Diabatic heating governs the seasonality of the Atlantic Niño

Author(s): Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Mojib Latif, Noel S. Keenlyside, Joakim Kjellsson, Ingo Richter
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 12/1, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20452-1

Key Role of the Ocean Western Boundary currents in shaping the Northern Hemisphere climate

Author(s): Nour-Eddine Omrani; Fumiaki Ogawa; Hisashi Nakamura; Hisashi Nakamura; Noel Keenlyside; Noel Keenlyside; Sandro W. Lubis; Katja Matthes
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 9 (1). Art.Nr. 3014., 2019, ISSN 2045-2322
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-39392-y

Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century

Author(s): Lea Svendsen, Noel Keenlyside, Morven Muilwijk, Ingo Bethke, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Yongqi Gao
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9

Relating model bias and prediction skill in the equatorial Atlantic

Author(s): François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Thomas Toniazzo, Shunya Koseki, Teferi Demissie, Ingo Bethke, Yiguo Wang
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05605-8

Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

Author(s): Stephanie Gleixner, Noel S Keenlyside, Teferi D Demissie, François Counillon, Yiguo Wang, Ellen Viste
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 12/11, 2017, Page(s) 114016, ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8cfa

Simulating climate with a synchronization-based supermodel

Author(s): Frank M. Selten, Francine J. Schevenhoven, Gregory S. Duane
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 27/12, 2017, Page(s) 126903, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/1.4990721

Role of atmosphere-ocean interactions in supermodeling the tropical Pacific climate

Author(s): Mao-Lin Shen, Noel Keenlyside, Bhuwan C. Bhatt, Gregory S. Duane
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 27/12, 2017, Page(s) 126704, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/1.4990713

Attractor learning in synchronized chaotic systems in the presence of unresolved scales

Author(s): W. Wiegerinck, F. M. Selten
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 27/12, 2017, Page(s) 126901, ISSN 1054-1500
Publisher: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/1.4990660

Unique relationship between tropical rainfall and SST to the north of the Mozambique Channel in boreal winter

Author(s): Shunya Koseki, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt
Published in: International Journal of Climatology, 2017, ISSN 0899-8418
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5378

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

Author(s): Matthew Collins, Shoshiro Minobe, Marcelo Barreiro, Simona Bordoni, Yohai Kaspi, Akira Kuwano-Yoshida, Noel Keenlyside, Elisa Manzini, Christopher H. O’Reilly, Rowan Sutton, Shang-Ping Xie, Olga Zolina
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 8/2, 2018, Page(s) 101-108, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0059-8

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

Author(s): Shunya Koseki, Noel Keenlyside, Teferi Demissie, Thomas Toniazzo, Francois Counillon, Ingo Bethke, Mehmet Ilicak, Mao-Lin Shen
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2017, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3896-2

Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

Author(s): Hoffman H. N. Cheung, Noel Keenlyside, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Wen Zhou
Published in: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Issue 35/1, 2018, Page(s) 38-51, ISSN 0256-1530
Publisher: Chinese Academy of Science
DOI: 10.1007/s00376-017-7156-5

Atmospheric signature of the Agulhas Current

Author(s): Arielle Stela Nkwinkwa Njouodo, Shunya Koseki, Noel Keenlyside, Mathieu Rouault
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2018gl077042

Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change

Author(s): Fumiaki Ogawa, Noel Keenlyside, Yongqi Gao, Torben Koenigk, Shuting Yang, Lingling Suo, Tao Wang, Guillaume Gastineau, Tetsu Nakamura, Ho Nam Cheung, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Jinro Ukita, Vladimir Semenov
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 45/7, 2018, Page(s) 3255-3263, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1002/2017gl076502

Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic

Author(s): Lea Svendsen, Noel Keenlyside, Ingo Bethke, Yongqi Gao, Nour-Eddine Omrani
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 8/9, 2018, Page(s) 793-797, ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0247-1

The role of sea surface temperature in the atmospheric seasonal cycle of the equatorial Atlantic

Author(s): Lander R. Crespo, Noel Keenlyside, Shunya Koseki
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2018, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4489-4

Dynamically combining climate models to “supermodel” the tropical Pacific

Author(s): Mao-Lin Shen, Noel Keenlyside, Frank Selten, Wim Wiegerinck, Gregory S. Duane
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 43/1, 2016, Page(s) 359-366, ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066562

Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from?

Author(s): Elsa Mohino, Noel Keenlyside, Holger Pohlmann
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 47/11, 2016, Page(s) 3593-3612, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3416-9

Uncertainty in twenty-first century projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Author(s): Annika Reintges, Thomas Martin, Mojib Latif, Noel S. Keenlyside
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2016, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3180-x

The El Niño effect on Ethiopian summer rainfall

Author(s): Stephanie Gleixner, Noel Keenlyside, Ellen Viste, Diriba Korecha
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2016, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3421-z

The Dominant Patterns of Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability in May–October and November–April over the Tropical Western Pacific

Author(s): Sunil Kumar Pariyar, Noel Keenlyside, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt, Nour-Eddine Omrani
Published in: Monthly Weather Review, Issue 147/8, 2019, Page(s) 2941-2960, ISSN 0027-0644
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0383.1

Seasonal predictions initialised by assimilating sea surface temperature observations with the EnKF

Author(s): Yiguo Wang, François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Lea Svendsen, Stephanie Gleixner, Madlen Kimmritz, Panxi Dai, Yongqi Gao
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2019, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04897-9

Influences of Lake Malawi on the spatial and diurnal variability of local precipitation

Author(s): Shunya Koseki, Priscilla A. Mooney
Published in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Issue 23/7, 2019, Page(s) 2795-2812, ISSN 1607-7938
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-2795-2019

Improving weather and climate predictions by training of supermodels

Author(s): Francine Schevenhoven, Frank Selten, Alberto Carrassi, Noel Keenlyside
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 10/4, 2019, Page(s) 789-807, ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-10-789-2019

Tropical Atlantic Variability: Observations and Modeling

Author(s): William Cabos, Alba de la Vara, Shunya Koseki
Published in: Atmosphere, Issue 10/9, 2019, Page(s) 502, ISSN 2073-4433
Publisher: Rotoweb Cantelli
DOI: 10.3390/atmos10090502

Insights into the Summer Diurnal Cycle over Eastern South Africa

Author(s): Shunya Koseki, Benjamin Pohl, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt, Noel Keenlyside, Arielle Stela Nkwinkwa Njouodo
Published in: Monthly Weather Review, Issue 146/12, 2018, Page(s) 4339-4356, ISSN 0027-0644
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0184.1

Frontogenesis of the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone

Author(s): Shunya Koseki, Hervé Giordani, Katerina Goubanova
Published in: Ocean Science, Issue 15/1, 2019, Page(s) 83-96, ISSN 1812-0792
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/os-15-83-2019

A Satellite Era Warming Hole in the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean

Author(s): Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Mojib Latif, Noel S. Keenlyside, Wonsun Park
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Issue 125/4, 2020, ISSN 2169-9275
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019jc015834

Ocean–atmosphere coupled Pacific Decadal variability simulated by a climate model

Author(s): Hao Luo, Fei Zheng, Noel Keenlyside, Jiang Zhu
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05248-9

Factors affecting extreme rainfall events in the South Pacific

Author(s): Sunil Kumar Pariyar, Noel Keenlyside, Asgeir Sorteberg, Thomas Spengler, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt, Fumiaki Ogawa
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Issue 29, 2020, Page(s) 100262, ISSN 2212-0947
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100262

Amplification of synoptic to annual variability of West African summer monsoon rainfall under global warming

Author(s): Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola, Wen Zhou, Tianjun Zhou, Noel Keenlyside
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0125-1

Book chapters (1)

Supermodeling: Synchronization of Alternative Dynamical Models of a Single Objective Process

Author(s): Gregory S. Duane, Wim Wiegerinck, Frank Selten, Mao-Lin Shen, Noel Keenlyside
Published in: Advances in Nonlinear Geosciences, 2018, Page(s) 101-121
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-58895-7_5