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Synchronisation to enhance reliability of climate predictions

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Publications

Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

Author(s): Stephanie Gleixner, Noel S Keenlyside, Teferi D Demissie, François Counillon, Yiguo Wang, Ellen Viste
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 12/11, 2017, Page(s) 114016, ISSN 1748-9326
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8cfa

Simulating climate with a synchronization-based supermodel

Author(s): Frank M. Selten, Francine J. Schevenhoven, Gregory S. Duane
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 27/12, 2017, Page(s) 126903, ISSN 1054-1500
DOI: 10.1063/1.4990721

Role of atmosphere-ocean interactions in supermodeling the tropical Pacific climate

Author(s): Mao-Lin Shen, Noel Keenlyside, Bhuwan C. Bhatt, Gregory S. Duane
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 27/12, 2017, Page(s) 126704, ISSN 1054-1500
DOI: 10.1063/1.4990713

Attractor learning in synchronized chaotic systems in the presence of unresolved scales

Author(s): W. Wiegerinck, F. M. Selten
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Issue 27/12, 2017, Page(s) 126901, ISSN 1054-1500
DOI: 10.1063/1.4990660

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

Author(s): Matthew Collins, Shoshiro Minobe, Marcelo Barreiro, Simona Bordoni, Yohai Kaspi, Akira Kuwano-Yoshida, Noel Keenlyside, Elisa Manzini, Christopher H. O’Reilly, Rowan Sutton, Shang-Ping Xie, Olga Zolina
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 8/2, 2018, Page(s) 101-108, ISSN 1758-678X
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0059-8

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

Author(s): Shunya Koseki, Noel Keenlyside, Teferi Demissie, Thomas Toniazzo, Francois Counillon, Ingo Bethke, Mehmet Ilicak, Mao-Lin Shen
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2017, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3896-2

Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

Author(s): Hoffman H. N. Cheung, Noel Keenlyside, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Wen Zhou
Published in: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Issue 35/1, 2018, Page(s) 38-51, ISSN 0256-1530
DOI: 10.1007/s00376-017-7156-5

Atmospheric signature of the Agulhas Current

Author(s): Arielle Stela Nkwinkwa Njouodo, Shunya Koseki, Noel Keenlyside, Mathieu Rouault
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, ISSN 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2018gl077042

Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change

Author(s): Fumiaki Ogawa, Noel Keenlyside, Yongqi Gao, Torben Koenigk, Shuting Yang, Lingling Suo, Tao Wang, Guillaume Gastineau, Tetsu Nakamura, Ho Nam Cheung, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Jinro Ukita, Vladimir Semenov
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 45/7, 2018, Page(s) 3255-3263, ISSN 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1002/2017gl076502

Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic

Author(s): Lea Svendsen, Noel Keenlyside, Ingo Bethke, Yongqi Gao, Nour-Eddine Omrani
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 8/9, 2018, Page(s) 793-797, ISSN 1758-678X
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0247-1

The role of sea surface temperature in the atmospheric seasonal cycle of the equatorial Atlantic

Author(s): Lander R. Crespo, Noel Keenlyside, Shunya Koseki
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2018, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4489-4

Dynamically combining climate models to “supermodel” the tropical Pacific

Author(s): Mao-Lin Shen, Noel Keenlyside, Frank Selten, Wim Wiegerinck, Gregory S. Duane
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 43/1, 2016, Page(s) 359-366, ISSN 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066562

Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from?

Author(s): Elsa Mohino, Noel Keenlyside, Holger Pohlmann
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 47/11, 2016, Page(s) 3593-3612, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3416-9

Uncertainty in twenty-first century projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Author(s): Annika Reintges, Thomas Martin, Mojib Latif, Noel S. Keenlyside
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2016, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3180-x

The El Niño effect on Ethiopian summer rainfall

Author(s): Stephanie Gleixner, Noel Keenlyside, Ellen Viste, Diriba Korecha
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2016, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3421-z

The Dominant Patterns of Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability in May–October and November–April over the Tropical Western Pacific

Author(s): Sunil Kumar Pariyar, Noel Keenlyside, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt, Nour-Eddine Omrani
Published in: Monthly Weather Review, Issue 147/8, 2019, Page(s) 2941-2960, ISSN 0027-0644
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0383.1

Seasonal predictions initialised by assimilating sea surface temperature observations with the EnKF

Author(s): Yiguo Wang, François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Lea Svendsen, Stephanie Gleixner, Madlen Kimmritz, Panxi Dai, Yongqi Gao
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2019, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04897-9

Influences of Lake Malawi on the spatial and diurnal variability of local precipitation

Author(s): Shunya Koseki, Priscilla A. Mooney
Published in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Issue 23/7, 2019, Page(s) 2795-2812, ISSN 1607-7938
DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-2795-2019

Improving weather and climate predictions by training of supermodels

Author(s): Francine Schevenhoven, Frank Selten, Alberto Carrassi, Noel Keenlyside
Published in: Earth System Dynamics, Issue 10/4, 2019, Page(s) 789-807, ISSN 2190-4987
DOI: 10.5194/esd-10-789-2019

Tropical Atlantic Variability: Observations and Modeling

Author(s): William Cabos, Alba de la Vara, Shunya Koseki
Published in: Atmosphere, Issue 10/9, 2019, Page(s) 502, ISSN 2073-4433
DOI: 10.3390/atmos10090502

Insights into the Summer Diurnal Cycle over Eastern South Africa

Author(s): Shunya Koseki, Benjamin Pohl, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt, Noel Keenlyside, Arielle Stela Nkwinkwa Njouodo
Published in: Monthly Weather Review, Issue 146/12, 2018, Page(s) 4339-4356, ISSN 0027-0644
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0184.1

Frontogenesis of the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone

Author(s): Shunya Koseki, Hervé Giordani, Katerina Goubanova
Published in: Ocean Science, Issue 15/1, 2019, Page(s) 83-96, ISSN 1812-0792
DOI: 10.5194/os-15-83-2019

A Satellite Era Warming Hole in the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean

Author(s): Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Mojib Latif, Noel S. Keenlyside, Wonsun Park
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Issue 125/4, 2020, ISSN 2169-9275
DOI: 10.1029/2019jc015834

Ocean–atmosphere coupled Pacific Decadal variability simulated by a climate model

Author(s): Hao Luo, Fei Zheng, Noel Keenlyside, Jiang Zhu
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05248-9

Factors affecting extreme rainfall events in the South Pacific

Author(s): Sunil Kumar Pariyar, Noel Keenlyside, Asgeir Sorteberg, Thomas Spengler, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt, Fumiaki Ogawa
Published in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Issue 29, 2020, Page(s) 100262, ISSN 2212-0947
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100262

Amplification of synoptic to annual variability of West African summer monsoon rainfall under global warming

Author(s): Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola, Wen Zhou, Tianjun Zhou, Noel Keenlyside
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0125-1

Supermodeling: Synchronization of Alternative Dynamical Models of a Single Objective Process

Author(s): Gregory S. Duane, Wim Wiegerinck, Frank Selten, Mao-Lin Shen, Noel Keenlyside
Published in: Advances in Nonlinear Geosciences, 2018, Page(s) 101-121
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-58895-7_5