Synchronisation to enhance reliability of climate predictions

Informazioni relative al progetto

STERCP

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: 648982

DOI 10.3030/648982

Progetto chiuso

Data della firma CE 20 Aprile 2015

Data di avvio 1 Settembre 2015

Data di completamento 31 Agosto 2021

Finanziato da

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC)

Costo totale € 1 999 388,75

Contributo UE € 1 999 388,75

Coordinato da

UNIVERSITETET I BERGEN
Norway

Pubblicazioni

Peer reviewed articles (31)

Diabatic heating governs the seasonality of the Atlantic Niño

Autori: Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Mojib Latif, Noel S. Keenlyside, Joakim Kjellsson, Ingo Richter
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 12/1, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20452-1

Key Role of the Ocean Western Boundary currents in shaping the Northern Hemisphere climate

Autori: Nour-Eddine Omrani; Fumiaki Ogawa; Hisashi Nakamura; Hisashi Nakamura; Noel Keenlyside; Noel Keenlyside; Sandro W. Lubis; Katja Matthes
Pubblicato in: Scientific Reports, Numero 9 (1). Art.Nr. 3014., 2019, ISSN 2045-2322
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-39392-y

Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century

Autori: Lea Svendsen, Noel Keenlyside, Morven Muilwijk, Ingo Bethke, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Yongqi Gao
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9

Relating model bias and prediction skill in the equatorial Atlantic

Autori: François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Thomas Toniazzo, Shunya Koseki, Teferi Demissie, Ingo Bethke, Yiguo Wang
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05605-8

Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

Autori: Stephanie Gleixner, Noel S Keenlyside, Teferi D Demissie, François Counillon, Yiguo Wang, Ellen Viste
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 12/11, 2017, Pagina/e 114016, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8cfa

Simulating climate with a synchronization-based supermodel

Autori: Frank M. Selten, Francine J. Schevenhoven, Gregory S. Duane
Pubblicato in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Numero 27/12, 2017, Pagina/e 126903, ISSN 1054-1500
Editore: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/1.4990721

Role of atmosphere-ocean interactions in supermodeling the tropical Pacific climate

Autori: Mao-Lin Shen, Noel Keenlyside, Bhuwan C. Bhatt, Gregory S. Duane
Pubblicato in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Numero 27/12, 2017, Pagina/e 126704, ISSN 1054-1500
Editore: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/1.4990713

Attractor learning in synchronized chaotic systems in the presence of unresolved scales

Autori: W. Wiegerinck, F. M. Selten
Pubblicato in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, Numero 27/12, 2017, Pagina/e 126901, ISSN 1054-1500
Editore: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/1.4990660

Unique relationship between tropical rainfall and SST to the north of the Mozambique Channel in boreal winter

Autori: Shunya Koseki, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt
Pubblicato in: International Journal of Climatology, 2017, ISSN 0899-8418
Editore: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/joc.5378

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

Autori: Matthew Collins, Shoshiro Minobe, Marcelo Barreiro, Simona Bordoni, Yohai Kaspi, Akira Kuwano-Yoshida, Noel Keenlyside, Elisa Manzini, Christopher H. O’Reilly, Rowan Sutton, Shang-Ping Xie, Olga Zolina
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Numero 8/2, 2018, Pagina/e 101-108, ISSN 1758-678X
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0059-8

Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

Autori: Shunya Koseki, Noel Keenlyside, Teferi Demissie, Thomas Toniazzo, Francois Counillon, Ingo Bethke, Mehmet Ilicak, Mao-Lin Shen
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2017, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3896-2

Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

Autori: Hoffman H. N. Cheung, Noel Keenlyside, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Wen Zhou
Pubblicato in: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Numero 35/1, 2018, Pagina/e 38-51, ISSN 0256-1530
Editore: Chinese Academy of Science
DOI: 10.1007/s00376-017-7156-5

Atmospheric signature of the Agulhas Current

Autori: Arielle Stela Nkwinkwa Njouodo, Shunya Koseki, Noel Keenlyside, Mathieu Rouault
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, 2018, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2018gl077042

Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change

Autori: Fumiaki Ogawa, Noel Keenlyside, Yongqi Gao, Torben Koenigk, Shuting Yang, Lingling Suo, Tao Wang, Guillaume Gastineau, Tetsu Nakamura, Ho Nam Cheung, Nour-Eddine Omrani, Jinro Ukita, Vladimir Semenov
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 45/7, 2018, Pagina/e 3255-3263, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1002/2017gl076502

Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic

Autori: Lea Svendsen, Noel Keenlyside, Ingo Bethke, Yongqi Gao, Nour-Eddine Omrani
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Numero 8/9, 2018, Pagina/e 793-797, ISSN 1758-678X
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0247-1

The role of sea surface temperature in the atmospheric seasonal cycle of the equatorial Atlantic

Autori: Lander R. Crespo, Noel Keenlyside, Shunya Koseki
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2018, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4489-4

Dynamically combining climate models to “supermodel” the tropical Pacific

Autori: Mao-Lin Shen, Noel Keenlyside, Frank Selten, Wim Wiegerinck, Gregory S. Duane
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 43/1, 2016, Pagina/e 359-366, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066562

Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from?

Autori: Elsa Mohino, Noel Keenlyside, Holger Pohlmann
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero 47/11, 2016, Pagina/e 3593-3612, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3416-9

Uncertainty in twenty-first century projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Autori: Annika Reintges, Thomas Martin, Mojib Latif, Noel S. Keenlyside
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2016, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3180-x

The El Niño effect on Ethiopian summer rainfall

Autori: Stephanie Gleixner, Noel Keenlyside, Ellen Viste, Diriba Korecha
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2016, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3421-z

The Dominant Patterns of Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability in May–October and November–April over the Tropical Western Pacific

Autori: Sunil Kumar Pariyar, Noel Keenlyside, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt, Nour-Eddine Omrani
Pubblicato in: Monthly Weather Review, Numero 147/8, 2019, Pagina/e 2941-2960, ISSN 0027-0644
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0383.1

Seasonal predictions initialised by assimilating sea surface temperature observations with the EnKF

Autori: Yiguo Wang, François Counillon, Noel Keenlyside, Lea Svendsen, Stephanie Gleixner, Madlen Kimmritz, Panxi Dai, Yongqi Gao
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2019, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04897-9

Influences of Lake Malawi on the spatial and diurnal variability of local precipitation

Autori: Shunya Koseki, Priscilla A. Mooney
Pubblicato in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Numero 23/7, 2019, Pagina/e 2795-2812, ISSN 1607-7938
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-2795-2019

Improving weather and climate predictions by training of supermodels

Autori: Francine Schevenhoven, Frank Selten, Alberto Carrassi, Noel Keenlyside
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 10/4, 2019, Pagina/e 789-807, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-10-789-2019

Tropical Atlantic Variability: Observations and Modeling

Autori: William Cabos, Alba de la Vara, Shunya Koseki
Pubblicato in: Atmosphere, Numero 10/9, 2019, Pagina/e 502, ISSN 2073-4433
Editore: Rotoweb Cantelli
DOI: 10.3390/atmos10090502

Insights into the Summer Diurnal Cycle over Eastern South Africa

Autori: Shunya Koseki, Benjamin Pohl, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt, Noel Keenlyside, Arielle Stela Nkwinkwa Njouodo
Pubblicato in: Monthly Weather Review, Numero 146/12, 2018, Pagina/e 4339-4356, ISSN 0027-0644
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0184.1

Frontogenesis of the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone

Autori: Shunya Koseki, Hervé Giordani, Katerina Goubanova
Pubblicato in: Ocean Science, Numero 15/1, 2019, Pagina/e 83-96, ISSN 1812-0792
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/os-15-83-2019

A Satellite Era Warming Hole in the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean

Autori: Hyacinth C. Nnamchi, Mojib Latif, Noel S. Keenlyside, Wonsun Park
Pubblicato in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Numero 125/4, 2020, ISSN 2169-9275
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2019jc015834

Ocean–atmosphere coupled Pacific Decadal variability simulated by a climate model

Autori: Hao Luo, Fei Zheng, Noel Keenlyside, Jiang Zhu
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2020, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05248-9

Factors affecting extreme rainfall events in the South Pacific

Autori: Sunil Kumar Pariyar, Noel Keenlyside, Asgeir Sorteberg, Thomas Spengler, Bhuwan Chandra Bhatt, Fumiaki Ogawa
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numero 29, 2020, Pagina/e 100262, ISSN 2212-0947
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100262

Amplification of synoptic to annual variability of West African summer monsoon rainfall under global warming

Autori: Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola, Wen Zhou, Tianjun Zhou, Noel Keenlyside
Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numero 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0125-1

Book chapters (1)

Supermodeling: Synchronization of Alternative Dynamical Models of a Single Objective Process

Autori: Gregory S. Duane, Wim Wiegerinck, Frank Selten, Mao-Lin Shen, Noel Keenlyside
Pubblicato in: Advances in Nonlinear Geosciences, 2018, Pagina/e 101-121
Editore: Springer International Publishing
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-58895-7_5