TransMID focuses on the on the development of novel methods to estimate key epidemiological parameters from social contact data (the MIXING work packages) and serological data (the SERO work packages). The TransMID team has made progress on both parts of the project and has produced new insights, methods, software, an online data sharing platform that enables researchers to better estimate the value of serological and social contact data in studying disease transmission and efficiently use these datasets in modelling efforts.
The main achievements are:
- Publication output: 47 publications (39 published, 6 available as pre-prints and 2 currently submitted) exceeding the estimated number of publications in the DoA. The PI and team also generated several technical reports on COVID-19 modelling available on the COVID and science blog (see outreach).
- Outreach activities: The methodology developed in TransMID proved extremely useful to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics. PI Niel Hens was and is part of different advisory bodies to the federal government (GEES, CELEVAL, GEMS) to inform about policy about control and exit strategies for the COVID-19 crisis. He informs the Belgian federal government on the impact of control measures and its relaxations using insights from mathematical and statistical models to which several TransMID team members contribute. Several technical reports have been published on the COVID and science blog:
https://covid-en-wetenschap.github.io(s’ouvre dans une nouvelle fenêtre). Besides direct advice to policymakers, Hens has communicated extensively with the general public about the mathematical and statistical models used for policy advice with a particular focus on how human behavior is incorporated in forecasts and on the strengths and weaknesses of the models. This communication took place through interviews on radio, talk shows on national television, participation in debates and conferences, and a presentation at the national press conference of Prime Minister De Croo on 21/02/2021. For his extraordinary contribution to communication to the general public during the COVID-19 pandemic, Hens was awarded the Annual Science Communication Prize of the Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Science and Arts.
- Data sharing platform: www.socialcontactdata.org; extended with social contact data from Belgium and China collected during the COVID-19 pandemic. Social contact data collected in >20 countries through the CoMix Survey as part of the H2020 EpiPose project has been added. The platform has been extended with the Socrates tool : an online tool leveraging a social contact data sharing initiative to assess mitigation strategies for COVID-19. (Willem L et al., 2020). The platform receives a high number of attention in terms of visits to the web tool and downloads of the data made available.
- New funding: H2020 EpiPose project (GA nr 101003688) coordinated by the PI. Two service agreements with ECDC to investigate social contact behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic in various EU countries. Private funding to investigate RSV dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding from the Flemish research foundation (FWO) and Special Research Fund (BOF) to extend modelling frameworks to new datasets, new objectives and to AI approaches in collaboration with other research groups in Belgium.
