Periodic Reporting for period 4 - TransMID (Translational and Transdisciplinary research in Modeling Infectious Diseases)
Berichtszeitraum: 2021-04-01 bis 2021-09-30
TransMID focuses on the development of novel methods to estimate key epidemiological parameters from both serological and social contact data, with the aim to significantly expand the range of public health questions that can be adequately addressed using such data. The overall goal is to advance public health and epidemiology by:
- Developing innovative methodology in mathematical epidemiology (Modelling Infectious Diseases).
- (In)validating epidemiological hypotheses based on existing and new data collections.
- Conducting basic and general research applicable to many different pathogens (Translational).
- Applying the proposed methodology to better understand and predict the dynamics of important
pathogens such as cytomegalovirus, hepatitis A, pertussis, measles-mumps-rubella, …
- Using both biomedical knowledge and mathematical tools (Transdisciplinary).
To maximize TransMID’s impact on public health in Europe and beyond, the toolbox and accompanying software will allow easy and effective application of the fundamentally improved techniques on many infectious diseases and in different geographic contexts.
- Developing innovative methodology in mathematical epidemiology (Modelling Infectious Diseases).
- (In)validating epidemiological hypotheses based on existing and new data collections.
- Conducting basic and general research applicable to many different pathogens (Translational).
- Applying the proposed methodology to better understand and predict the dynamics of important
pathogens such as cytomegalovirus, hepatitis A, pertussis, measles-mumps-rubella, …
- Using both biomedical knowledge and mathematical tools (Transdisciplinary).
To maximize TransMID’s impact on public health in Europe and beyond, the toolbox and accompanying software will allow easy and effective application of the fundamentally improved techniques on many infectious diseases and in different geographic contexts.
TransMID focuses on the on the development of novel methods to estimate key epidemiological parameters from social contact data (the MIXING work packages) and serological data (the SERO work packages). The TransMID team has made progress on both parts of the project and has produced new insights, methods, software, an online data sharing platform that enables researchers to better estimate the value of serological and social contact data in studying disease transmission and efficiently use these datasets in modelling efforts.
The main achievements are:
- Publication output: 47 publications (39 published, 6 available as pre-prints and 2 currently submitted) exceeding the estimated number of publications in the DoA. The PI and team also generated several technical reports on COVID-19 modelling available on the COVID and science blog (see outreach).
- Outreach activities: The methodology developed in TransMID proved extremely useful to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics. PI Niel Hens was and is part of different advisory bodies to the federal government (GEES, CELEVAL, GEMS) to inform about policy about control and exit strategies for the COVID-19 crisis. He informs the Belgian federal government on the impact of control measures and its relaxations using insights from mathematical and statistical models to which several TransMID team members contribute. Several technical reports have been published on the COVID and science blog: https://covid-en-wetenschap.github.io. Besides direct advice to policymakers, Hens has communicated extensively with the general public about the mathematical and statistical models used for policy advice with a particular focus on how human behavior is incorporated in forecasts and on the strengths and weaknesses of the models. This communication took place through interviews on radio, talk shows on national television, participation in debates and conferences, and a presentation at the national press conference of Prime Minister De Croo on 21/02/2021. For his extraordinary contribution to communication to the general public during the COVID-19 pandemic, Hens was awarded the Annual Science Communication Prize of the Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Science and Arts.
- Data sharing platform: www.socialcontactdata.org; extended with social contact data from Belgium and China collected during the COVID-19 pandemic. Social contact data collected in >20 countries through the CoMix Survey as part of the H2020 EpiPose project has been added. The platform has been extended with the Socrates tool : an online tool leveraging a social contact data sharing initiative to assess mitigation strategies for COVID-19. (Willem L et al., 2020). The platform receives a high number of attention in terms of visits to the web tool and downloads of the data made available.
- New funding: H2020 EpiPose project (GA nr 101003688) coordinated by the PI. Two service agreements with ECDC to investigate social contact behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic in various EU countries. Private funding to investigate RSV dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding from the Flemish research foundation (FWO) and Special Research Fund (BOF) to extend modelling frameworks to new datasets, new objectives and to AI approaches in collaboration with other research groups in Belgium.
The main achievements are:
- Publication output: 47 publications (39 published, 6 available as pre-prints and 2 currently submitted) exceeding the estimated number of publications in the DoA. The PI and team also generated several technical reports on COVID-19 modelling available on the COVID and science blog (see outreach).
- Outreach activities: The methodology developed in TransMID proved extremely useful to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics. PI Niel Hens was and is part of different advisory bodies to the federal government (GEES, CELEVAL, GEMS) to inform about policy about control and exit strategies for the COVID-19 crisis. He informs the Belgian federal government on the impact of control measures and its relaxations using insights from mathematical and statistical models to which several TransMID team members contribute. Several technical reports have been published on the COVID and science blog: https://covid-en-wetenschap.github.io. Besides direct advice to policymakers, Hens has communicated extensively with the general public about the mathematical and statistical models used for policy advice with a particular focus on how human behavior is incorporated in forecasts and on the strengths and weaknesses of the models. This communication took place through interviews on radio, talk shows on national television, participation in debates and conferences, and a presentation at the national press conference of Prime Minister De Croo on 21/02/2021. For his extraordinary contribution to communication to the general public during the COVID-19 pandemic, Hens was awarded the Annual Science Communication Prize of the Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Science and Arts.
- Data sharing platform: www.socialcontactdata.org; extended with social contact data from Belgium and China collected during the COVID-19 pandemic. Social contact data collected in >20 countries through the CoMix Survey as part of the H2020 EpiPose project has been added. The platform has been extended with the Socrates tool : an online tool leveraging a social contact data sharing initiative to assess mitigation strategies for COVID-19. (Willem L et al., 2020). The platform receives a high number of attention in terms of visits to the web tool and downloads of the data made available.
- New funding: H2020 EpiPose project (GA nr 101003688) coordinated by the PI. Two service agreements with ECDC to investigate social contact behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic in various EU countries. Private funding to investigate RSV dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding from the Flemish research foundation (FWO) and Special Research Fund (BOF) to extend modelling frameworks to new datasets, new objectives and to AI approaches in collaboration with other research groups in Belgium.
All output described above can be considered novel as they provide new insights and solutions for important issues related to the use of social contact and serological data in mathematical models for disease transmission. We highlight our paper published in Proceedings of the Royal Society Series B as unconventional in the sense that it refuted one of the key assumptions made in mathematical epidemiology namely the random mixing assumption and as such received a lot of attention. We also highlight our paper on the impact of behavioural change on the dynamics of co-infections which reveals that the interplay between behaviour and infections transmitted via the respiratory route is non-trivial.