Publications Other (69) Moving from Reaction to Action - Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel: A synthesis report from the Sahel Predictive Analytics project in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (Report published by the United Nations Office of the Special Coordinator for Development in the Sahel (OSCDS) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) - Forthcoming Author(s): Jana Birner, Julia Blocher, Lucas Destrijcker, Benjamin Fischer, Stephanie Gleixner, Christoph Gornott, Håvard Hegre, Lennart Jansen, Bryan Jones, Alexander Kjærum, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Sophie von Loeben, Nicole Manger, Thomas Mayer, Julia Tomalka, Paola Vesco, Kira Vinke, Stefanie Wesch, Antonia Zvolsky Published in: 2022 Publisher: UN What’s missing? The effect of missing data and imputation techniques on predictive performance in forecasting civil war violence (Working Paper) Author(s): David Randahl Published in: 2021 Publisher: Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, July 2018 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen Published in: 2018 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Disaggregated analysis of internal and cross-border mobility using a prediction framework Author(s): Kristina Petrova, Maxine Leis Published in: 2022 Publisher: Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, October 2018 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen Published in: 2018 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University The Risk Monitor: October 2021 Author(s): The ViEWS Team Published in: 2021 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, June 2018 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen Published in: 2018 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, June 2020 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan Published in: 2020 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University How political institutions contribute to forecasting organized political violence Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Hannah Frank Published in: 2021 Publisher: Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, August 2020 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan Published in: 2020 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, March 2020 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen Published in: 2020 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, February 2020 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen Published in: 2020 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Policy Paper: COVID-19, Conflict, and Risks in the Arab Region: The Need to End Hostilities and Invest in Peace Author(s): Havard Hegre et al. Published in: 2020 Publisher: ESCWA & PRIO ViEWS monthly forecasts, November 2019 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen Published in: 2019 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Move It or Lose It: Introducing Pseudo-Earth Mover Divergence as a Context-Sensitive Metric for Evaluating and Improving Forecasting and Prediction Systems (Paper presented at the 2019 Barcelona GSE Summer Forum, Workshop on Forecasting Political and Economic Crisis: Social Science Meets Machine Learning) Author(s): Kevin Greene, Håvard Hegre, Frederick Hoyles, Michael Colaresi Published in: 2019 Publisher: Barcelona School of Economics (BSE) ViEWS monthly forecasts, March 2019 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen Published in: 2019 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Early warning and predictive analytic systems in conflict and humanitarian contexts: Dispatches from the front Author(s): Tim Lynam, Mollie Zapata, Håvard Hegre, Clayton Besaw, Curtis Bell Published in: 2022 Publisher: Routledge Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel (Report for the UNHCR) Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Remco Hansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Paola Vesco, Malika Rakhmankulova Published in: 2021 Publisher: Uppsala University The Risk Monitor: November 2021 Author(s): The ViEWS Team Published in: 2021 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, November 2018 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen Published in: 2018 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, September 2018 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen Published in: 2018 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Predicting Armed Conflict Using Protest Data Author(s): Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Håvard Hegre, Maxine Leis Published in: 2022 Publisher: Uppsala University A Climate of War or Peace? The Effect of Droughts on Conflict Dynamics (Paper presented at the virtual ISA Annual Convention 2021) Author(s): Paola Vesco Published in: 2021 Publisher: Uppsala University The Risk Monitor: September 2021 Author(s): The ViEWS Team Published in: 2021 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, February 2019 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen Published in: 2019 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Inexorable Force or Dying Wave?: Long term trends of democratization and the third wave of autocratization Author(s): David Randahl Published in: 2019 Publisher: Uppsala University Inference with extremes: Accounting for Extreme Values in Count Regression Models Author(s): David Randahl, Johan Vegelius Published in: 2021 Publisher: Uppsala University Rally, Rage, or Right-wing politics? Author(s): David Randahl Published in: 2018 Publisher: Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, January 2019 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen Published in: 2019 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Forecasting fatalities Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Forogh Akbari, Mihai Croicu, James Dale, Tim Gasste, Remco Jansen, Peder Landsverk, Maxine Leis, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Hannes Mueller, Malika Rakhmankulova, David Randahl, Christopher Rauh, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Paola Vesco Published in: 2022 Publisher: Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, April 2020 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen Published in: 2020 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University The Risk Monitor: July 2021 Author(s): The ViEWS Team Published in: 2021 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, June 2019 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen Published in: 2019 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, James Dale, Mihai Croicu, David Randahl, Paola Vesco Published in: 2022 Publisher: Uppsala University Estimating a Zero and Extreme Value Inflated Regression Model Author(s): Johan Vegelius, David Randahl Published in: Issue Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Social Sciences 196, 2022 Publisher: Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, September 2019 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen Published in: 2019 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Too hot to handle? Climate shocks, societal vulnerability and conflict forecasting (Paper presented at the ISA Annual Convention 2022, Nashville,Tennessee) Author(s): Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Ole Magnus Theisen Published in: 2022 Publisher: Uppsala University Trends in the severity of wars: a mixed-level analysis Author(s): Håvard Hegre, David Randahl, Mihai Croicu Published in: 2021 Publisher: Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, September 2020 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan Published in: 2020 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, October 2020 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan Published in: 2020 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University The Risk Monitor: April 2021 Author(s): The ViEWS Team Published in: 2021 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Verden er blitt mere fredelig - vil denne trenden fortsette? [The World has become more Peaceful - Will this Trend Continue?] Author(s): Håvard Hegre Published in: Kungl. vetenskapssocietetens årbok, 2018 Publisher: Kungliga vetenskapssocieteten Freds- og konfliktforskning og den fredsbevarende virkningen av demokrati og økonomiske nettverk [Peace and Conflict Research and the pacifying Effect of Democracy and Economic Networks] Author(s): Håvard Hegre Published in: Årbok for Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi, 2018 Publisher: Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi Introducing the UCDP-Candidate Events Dataset and the ViEWS Outcomes dataset. Monthly updated organized violence data in the form of events data as well as aggregated to the country-month and PRIO-GRID-month level Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Kristine Eck, Stina Högbladh Published in: 2018 Publisher: Uppsala University A Fast Spatial Multiple Imputation Procedure for Imprecise Armed Conflict Events Author(s): Mihai Croicu, Håvard Hegre Published in: 2018 Publisher: Uppsala University The Risk Monitor: May 2021 Author(s): The ViEWS Team Published in: 2021 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, April 2019 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen Published in: 2019 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, May 2019 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen Published in: 2019 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for November 2021–October 2024 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Paola Vesco, Remco Jansen, Malika Rakhmankulova Published in: 2022 Publisher: Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts: August 2020 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan Published in: 2020 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, July 2019 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen Published in: 2019 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University The Risk Monitor: June 2021 Author(s): The ViEWS Team Published in: 2021 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University The Risk Monitor: August 2021 Author(s): The ViEWS Team Published in: 2021 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Understanding the potential linkages between climate change and conflict in the Arab region Author(s): Ole Magnus Theisen, Håvard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Stefan Döring, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Ida Rudolfsen, Paola Vesco, Joaquin Salido Marcos, Yara Acaf, Pattile Nahabedian, Lubna Ismail Published in: 2021 Publisher: United Nations publication, ESCWA ViEWS monthly forecasts, December 2019 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen Published in: 2019 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University The Risk Monitor: February 2021 Author(s): The ViEWS Team Published in: 2020 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, October 2019 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen Published in: 2019 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, August 2019 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen Published in: 2019 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University The Risk Monitor: January 2021 Author(s): The ViEWS Team Published in: 2020 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, August 2018 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen Published in: 2018 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, July 2020 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan Published in: 2020 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, January 2020 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen Published in: 2020 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Unpacking Sensitivity Bias in Vote Buying: Exploratory Analyses of a ‘Failed’ List Experiment (Presented at the International Studies Association’s 2022 Annual Convention) Author(s): Sophia Hatz, Hanne Fjelde, David Randahl Published in: 2022 Publisher: Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, December 2018 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen Published in: 2018 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University The Risk Monitor: December 2021 Author(s): The ViEWS Team Published in: 2021 Publisher: Department of Peace and Con ict Research, Uppsala University A Review and Comparison of Conflict Early Warning Systems Author(s): Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Tim Gåsste, Håvard Hegre Published in: 2022 Publisher: Uppsala University The `conflict trap' reduces economic growth in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Author(s): Gilmore, Elisabeth, Håvard Hegre, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova Published in: 2021 Publisher: Uppsala University The Risk Monitor: March 2021 Author(s): The ViEWS Team Published in: 2021 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University ViEWS monthly forecasts, May 2020 Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen Published in: 2020 Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University Peer reviewed articles (28) A Conditional Model of Local Income Shock and Civil Conflict Author(s): Halvard Buhaug, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Nina von Uexkull Published in: The Journal of Politics, Issue 83/1, 2021, Page(s) 354-366, ISSN 0022-3816 Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc. DOI: 10.1086/709671 Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production Author(s): Paola Vesco, Matija Kovacic, Malcolm Mistry, Mihai Croicu Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 58/1, 2021, Page(s) 98-113, ISSN 0022-3433 Publisher: SAGE Publications DOI: 10.1177/0022343320971020 Lessons from an Escalation Prediction Competition. International Interactions Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi Published in: International Interactions, Issue 48(x), 2022, Page(s) 1-34, ISSN 1547-7444 Publisher: Taylor & Franis Online DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2070745 Which Institutions Matter? Re-Considering the Democratic Civil Peace* Author(s): Hanne Fjelde, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård Published in: International Studies Quarterly, Issue 65/1, 2020, Page(s) 223-237, ISSN 0020-8833 Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc. DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaa076 Natural resources and conflict: A meta-analysis of the empirical literature Author(s): Paola Vesco, Shouro Dasgupta, Enrica De Cian, Carlo Carraro Published in: Ecological Economics, Issue 172, 2020, Page(s) 106633, ISSN 0921-8009 Publisher: Elsevier BV DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106633 ViEWS 2020 : Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Curtis Bell, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Maxine Ria Leis, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Paola Vesco Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 58/3, 2021, Page(s) 599-611, ISSN 0022-3433 Publisher: SAGE Publications DOI: 10.1177/0022343320962157 Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation Author(s): Cusack, Jeremy J., Tom Bradfer-Lawrence, Zachary Baynham-Herd, Sofia Castelló y Tickell, Isla Duporge, Håvard Hegre, Lara Moreno Zárate, Vincent Naude, Sahil Nijhawan, John Wilson, Dario Gerardo Zambrano Cortes, Nils Bunnefeld Published in: Conservation Letters (e12783), Issue Volume14, Issue3, 2021, ISSN 1755-263X Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc. DOI: 10.1111/conl.12783 External support in armed conflicts: Introducing the UCDP external support dataset (ESD), 1975–2017 Author(s): V. Meier, N. Karlén, T. Pettersson, Mihai Croicu Published in: Journal of Peace Research, 2022, ISSN 0022-3433 Publisher: SAGE Publications DOI: 10.1177/00223433221079864 Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Kristine Eck, Stina Högbladh Published in: Research & Politics, Issue 7/3, 2020, Page(s) 205316802093525, ISSN 2053-1680 Publisher: SAGE Publications DOI: 10.1177/2053168020935257 Reporting of non-fatal conflict events Author(s): Mihai Croicu, Kristine Eck Published in: International Interactions, Issue 48:3, 2022, Page(s) 450-470, ISSN 0305-0629 Publisher: Taylor & Francis DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2044325 Lessons from a conflict escalation prediction competition (Special issue) Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi Published in: International Interactions, Issue Special issue 48(5), 2022, ISSN 1547-7444 Publisher: Taylor & Francis Online Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Kristina Petrova, Nina von Uexkull Published in: Sustainability, Issue 12/20, 2020, Page(s) 8729, ISSN 2071-1050 Publisher: MDPI Open Access Publishing DOI: 10.3390/su12208729 Predicting Escalating and De-Escalating Violence in Africa Using Markov Models Author(s): David Randahl, Johan Vegelius Published in: International Interactions, 2022, ISSN 1547-7444 Publisher: Taylor & Francis Online DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2049772 ViEWS 2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Curtis Bell, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Maxine Ria Leis, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Paola Vesco Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 58/3, 2021, Page(s) 599-611, ISSN 0022-3433 Publisher: SAGE Publications DOI: 10.1177/0022343320962157 Protection Through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of Targeting Civilians Author(s): Hanne Fjelde, Lisa Hultman, Desirée Nilsson Published in: International Organization, Issue 73/1, 2019, Page(s) 103-131, ISSN 0020-8183 Publisher: Cambridge University Press DOI: 10.1017/s0020818318000346 Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Ranveig Flaten Ræder Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 54/2, 2017, Page(s) 243-261, ISSN 0022-3433 Publisher: SAGE Publications DOI: 10.1177/0022343316684917 Evaluating the Conflict-Reducing Effect of UN Peacekeeping Operations Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Lisa Hultman, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård Published in: The Journal of Politics, Issue 81/1, 2019, Page(s) 215-232, ISSN 0022-3816 Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc. DOI: 10.1086/700203 Introduction Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Nils W Metternich, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Julian Wucherpfennig Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 54/2, 2017, Page(s) 113-124, ISSN 0022-3433 Publisher: SAGE Publications DOI: 10.1177/0022343317691330 Civil Society and the Democratic Peace Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Michael Bernhard, Jan Teorell Published in: Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2019, Page(s) 002200271985062, ISSN 0022-0027 Publisher: SAGE Publications DOI: 10.1177/0022002719850620 A conditional model of local income shock and civil conflict Author(s): Halvard Buhaug, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Nina von Uexkull Published in: The Journal of Politics, 2020, ISSN 0022-3816 Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc. Fraud, grievances, and post-election protests in competitive authoritarian regimes Author(s): Espen Geelmuyden Rød Published in: Electoral Studies, Issue 58, 2019, Page(s) 12-20, ISSN 0261-3794 Publisher: Pergamon Press Ltd. DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2019.01.003 ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Matthias Basedau, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Frederick Hoyles, Lisa Hultman, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen, Naima Mouhleb, Sayyed Auwn Muhammad, Desirée Nilsson, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Gerald Schneider, Nina von Uexkull, Jonas Vestby Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 56/2, 2018, Page(s) 155-174, ISSN 0022-3433 Publisher: SAGE Publications DOI: 10.1177/0022343319823860 The oracle or the crowd? Experts versus the stock market in forecasting ceasefire success in the Levant Author(s): Gerald Schneider, Maya Hadar, Naomi Bosler Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 54/2, 2017, Page(s) 231-242, ISSN 0022-3433 Publisher: SAGE Publications DOI: 10.1177/0022343316683437 Do the robot Author(s): Michael Colaresi, Zuhaib Mahmood Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 54/2, 2017, Page(s) 193-214, ISSN 0022-3433 Publisher: SAGE Publications DOI: 10.1177/0022343316682065 The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis Author(s): Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Håvard Hegre Published in: Public Choice, 2019, ISSN 0048-5829 Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers DOI: 10.1007/s11127-019-00742-z Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Peder Landsverk Published in: International Studies Quarterly, 2021, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 0020-8833 Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc. DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaa094 United They Stand: Findings from an Escalation Prediction Competition'. International Interactions Author(s): Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Michael Colaresi, Remco Bastiaan Jansen, Adeline Lo, Gregor Reisch Nils B. Weidmann Published in: International Interactions, Issue Online, 2022, Page(s) 1-38, ISSN 1547-7444 Publisher: Taylor & Francis Online DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2029856 Employing Local Peacekeeping Data to Forecast Changes in Violence Author(s): Lisa Hultman, Maxine Leis, Desirée Nilsson Published in: International Interactions, 2022, ISSN 1547-7444 Publisher: Taylor & Francis Online DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2055010 Thesis and dissertations (1) Who knows what tomorrow will bring? Four papers on the prediction of contentious politics. Author(s): David Randahl Published in: Doctoral Thesis/Report Department of Peace and Conflict Research 128, 2022, ISBN 978-91-506-2948-4 Publisher: Uppsala University Monographic books (1) The Internet and Political Protest in Autocracies Author(s): Nils B. Weidmann, Espen Geelmuyden Rød Published in: Oxford Studies in Digital Politics, 2019 Publisher: Oxford University Press Book chapters (1) Climate and conflict Author(s): Paola Vesco, Halvard Buhaug Published in: Routledge Handbook of Peace, Security and Development, 2020, Page(s) 105-120, ISBN 9781351172202 Publisher: Routledge Searching for OpenAIRE data... There was an error trying to search data from OpenAIRE No results available