The Violence Early-Warning System: Building a Scientific Foundation for Conflict Forecasting

Moving from Reaction to Action - Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel: A synthesis report from the Sahel Predictive Analytics project in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (Report published by the United Nations Office of the Special Coordinator for Development in the Sahel (OSCDS) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) - Forthcoming

Auteurs: Jana Birner, Julia Blocher, Lucas Destrijcker, Benjamin Fischer, Stephanie Gleixner, Christoph Gornott, Håvard Hegre, Lennart Jansen, Bryan Jones, Alexander Kjærum, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Sophie von Loeben, Nicole Manger, Thomas Mayer, Julia Tomalka, Paola Vesco, Kira Vinke, Stefanie Wesch, Antonia Zvolsky
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: UN

What’s missing? The effect of missing data and imputation techniques on predictive performance in forecasting civil war violence (Working Paper)

Auteurs: David Randahl
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, July 2018

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2018
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Disaggregated analysis of internal and cross-border mobility using a prediction framework

Auteurs: Kristina Petrova, Maxine Leis
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, October 2018

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2018
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: October 2021

Auteurs: The ViEWS Team
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, June 2018

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2018
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, June 2020

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

How political institutions contribute to forecasting organized political violence

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Hannah Frank
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, August 2020

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, March 2020

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, February 2020

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Policy Paper: COVID-19, Conflict, and Risks in the Arab Region: The Need to End Hostilities and Invest in Peace

Auteurs: Havard Hegre et al.
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: ESCWA & PRIO

ViEWS monthly forecasts, November 2019

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Move It or Lose It: Introducing Pseudo-Earth Mover Divergence as a Context-Sensitive Metric for Evaluating and Improving Forecasting and Prediction Systems (Paper presented at the 2019 Barcelona GSE Summer Forum, Workshop on Forecasting Political and Economic Crisis: Social Science Meets Machine Learning)

Auteurs: Kevin Greene, Håvard Hegre, Frederick Hoyles, Michael Colaresi
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Barcelona School of Economics (BSE)

ViEWS monthly forecasts, March 2019

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Early warning and predictive analytic systems in conflict and humanitarian contexts: Dispatches from the front

Auteurs: Tim Lynam, Mollie Zapata, Håvard Hegre, Clayton Besaw, Curtis Bell
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: Routledge

Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel (Report for the UNHCR)

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Remco Hansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Paola Vesco, Malika Rakhmankulova
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: November 2021

Auteurs: The ViEWS Team
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, November 2018

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2018
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, September 2018

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2018
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Predicting Armed Conflict Using Protest Data

Auteurs: Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Håvard Hegre, Maxine Leis
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: Uppsala University

A Climate of War or Peace? The Effect of Droughts on Conflict Dynamics (Paper presented at the virtual ISA Annual Convention 2021)

Auteurs: Paola Vesco
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: September 2021

Auteurs: The ViEWS Team
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, February 2019

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Inexorable Force or Dying Wave?: Long term trends of democratization and the third wave of autocratization

Auteurs: David Randahl
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Uppsala University

Inference with extremes: Accounting for Extreme Values in Count Regression Models

Auteurs: David Randahl, Johan Vegelius
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Uppsala University

Rally, Rage, or Right-wing politics?

Auteurs: David Randahl
Publié dans: 2018
Éditeur: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, January 2019

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Forecasting fatalities

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Forogh Akbari, Mihai Croicu, James Dale, Tim Gasste, Remco Jansen, Peder Landsverk, Maxine Leis, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Hannes Mueller, Malika Rakhmankulova, David Randahl, Christopher Rauh, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Paola Vesco
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, April 2020

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: July 2021

Auteurs: The ViEWS Team
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, June 2019

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, James Dale, Mihai Croicu, David Randahl, Paola Vesco
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: Uppsala University

Estimating a Zero and Extreme Value Inflated Regression Model

Auteurs: Johan Vegelius, David Randahl
Publié dans: Numéro Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Social Sciences 196, 2022
Éditeur: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, September 2019

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Too hot to handle? Climate shocks, societal vulnerability and conflict forecasting (Paper presented at the ISA Annual Convention 2022, Nashville,Tennessee)

Auteurs: Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Ole Magnus Theisen
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: Uppsala University

Trends in the severity of wars: a mixed-level analysis

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, David Randahl, Mihai Croicu
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, September 2020

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, October 2020

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: April 2021

Auteurs: The ViEWS Team
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Verden er blitt mere fredelig - vil denne trenden fortsette? [The World has become more Peaceful - Will this Trend Continue?]

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre
Publié dans: Kungl. vetenskapssocietetens årbok, 2018
Éditeur: Kungliga vetenskapssocieteten

Freds- og konfliktforskning og den fredsbevarende virkningen av demokrati og økonomiske nettverk [Peace and Conflict Research and the pacifying Effect of Democracy and Economic Networks]

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre
Publié dans: Årbok for Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi, 2018
Éditeur: Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi

Introducing the UCDP-Candidate Events Dataset and the ViEWS Outcomes dataset. Monthly updated organized violence data in the form of events data as well as aggregated to the country-month and PRIO-GRID-month level

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Kristine Eck, Stina Högbladh
Publié dans: 2018
Éditeur: Uppsala University

A Fast Spatial Multiple Imputation Procedure for Imprecise Armed Conflict Events

Auteurs: Mihai Croicu, Håvard Hegre
Publié dans: 2018
Éditeur: Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: May 2021

Auteurs: The ViEWS Team
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, April 2019

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, May 2019

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for November 2021–October 2024

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Paola Vesco, Remco Jansen, Malika Rakhmankulova
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts: August 2020

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, July 2019

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: June 2021

Auteurs: The ViEWS Team
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: August 2021

Auteurs: The ViEWS Team
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Understanding the potential linkages between climate change and conflict in the Arab region

Auteurs: Ole Magnus Theisen, Håvard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Stefan Döring, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Ida Rudolfsen, Paola Vesco, Joaquin Salido Marcos, Yara Acaf, Pattile Nahabedian, Lubna Ismail
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: United Nations publication, ESCWA

ViEWS monthly forecasts, December 2019

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: February 2021

Auteurs: The ViEWS Team
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, October 2019

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, August 2019

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2019
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: January 2021

Auteurs: The ViEWS Team
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, August 2018

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2018
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, July 2020

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, January 2020

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Unpacking Sensitivity Bias in Vote Buying: Exploratory Analyses of a ‘Failed’ List Experiment (Presented at the International Studies Association’s 2022 Annual Convention)

Auteurs: Sophia Hatz, Hanne Fjelde, David Randahl
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, December 2018

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2018
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: December 2021

Auteurs: The ViEWS Team
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Con ict Research, Uppsala University

A Review and Comparison of Conflict Early Warning Systems

Auteurs: Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Tim Gåsste, Håvard Hegre
Publié dans: 2022
Éditeur: Uppsala University

The `conflict trap' reduces economic growth in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Auteurs: Gilmore, Elisabeth, Håvard Hegre, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: March 2021

Auteurs: The ViEWS Team
Publié dans: 2021
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, May 2020

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Publié dans: 2020
Éditeur: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

A Conditional Model of Local Income Shock and Civil Conflict

Auteurs: Halvard Buhaug, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Nina von Uexkull
Publié dans: The Journal of Politics, Numéro 83/1, 2021, Page(s) 354-366, ISSN 0022-3816
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1086/709671

Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production

Auteurs: Paola Vesco, Matija Kovacic, Malcolm Mistry, Mihai Croicu
Publié dans: Journal of Peace Research, Numéro 58/1, 2021, Page(s) 98-113, ISSN 0022-3433
Éditeur: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343320971020

Lessons from an Escalation Prediction Competition. International Interactions

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi
Publié dans: International Interactions, Numéro 48(x), 2022, Page(s) 1-34, ISSN 1547-7444
Éditeur: Taylor & Franis Online
DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2070745

Which Institutions Matter? Re-Considering the Democratic Civil Peace*

Auteurs: Hanne Fjelde, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Publié dans: International Studies Quarterly, Numéro 65/1, 2020, Page(s) 223-237, ISSN 0020-8833
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaa076

Natural resources and conflict: A meta-analysis of the empirical literature

Auteurs: Paola Vesco, Shouro Dasgupta, Enrica De Cian, Carlo Carraro
Publié dans: Ecological Economics, Numéro 172, 2020, Page(s) 106633, ISSN 0921-8009
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106633

Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation

Auteurs: Cusack, Jeremy J., Tom Bradfer-Lawrence, Zachary Baynham-Herd, Sofia Castelló y Tickell, Isla Duporge, Håvard Hegre, Lara Moreno Zárate, Vincent Naude, Sahil Nijhawan, John Wilson, Dario Gerardo Zambrano Cortes, Nils Bunnefeld
Publié dans: Conservation Letters (e12783), Numéro Volume14, Numéro3, 2021, ISSN 1755-263X
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/conl.12783

External support in armed conflicts: Introducing the UCDP external support dataset (ESD), 1975–2017

Auteurs: V. Meier, N. Karlén, T. Pettersson, Mihai Croicu
Publié dans: Journal of Peace Research, 2022, ISSN 0022-3433
Éditeur: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/00223433221079864

Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Kristine Eck, Stina Högbladh
Publié dans: Research & Politics, Numéro 7/3, 2020, Page(s) 205316802093525, ISSN 2053-1680
Éditeur: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/2053168020935257

Reporting of non-fatal conflict events

Auteurs: Mihai Croicu, Kristine Eck
Publié dans: International Interactions, Numéro 48:3, 2022, Page(s) 450-470, ISSN 0305-0629
Éditeur: Taylor & Francis
DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2044325

Lessons from a conflict escalation prediction competition (Special issue)

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi
Publié dans: International Interactions, Numéro Special issue 48(5), 2022, ISSN 1547-7444
Éditeur: Taylor & Francis Online

Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Kristina Petrova, Nina von Uexkull
Publié dans: Sustainability, Numéro 12/20, 2020, Page(s) 8729, ISSN 2071-1050
Éditeur: MDPI Open Access Publishing
DOI: 10.3390/su12208729

Predicting Escalating and De-Escalating Violence in Africa Using Markov Models

Auteurs: David Randahl, Johan Vegelius
Publié dans: International Interactions, 2022, ISSN 1547-7444
Éditeur: Taylor & Francis Online
DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2049772

ViEWS 2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Curtis Bell, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Maxine Ria Leis, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Paola Vesco
Publié dans: Journal of Peace Research, Numéro 58/3, 2021, Page(s) 599-611, ISSN 0022-3433
Éditeur: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343320962157

Protection Through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of Targeting Civilians

Auteurs: Hanne Fjelde, Lisa Hultman, Desirée Nilsson
Publié dans: International Organization, Numéro 73/1, 2019, Page(s) 103-131, ISSN 0020-8183
Éditeur: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/s0020818318000346

Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Ranveig Flaten Ræder
Publié dans: Journal of Peace Research, Numéro 54/2, 2017, Page(s) 243-261, ISSN 0022-3433
Éditeur: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343316684917

Evaluating the Conflict-Reducing Effect of UN Peacekeeping Operations

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Lisa Hultman, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Publié dans: The Journal of Politics, Numéro 81/1, 2019, Page(s) 215-232, ISSN 0022-3816
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1086/700203

Introduction

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Nils W Metternich, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Julian Wucherpfennig
Publié dans: Journal of Peace Research, Numéro 54/2, 2017, Page(s) 113-124, ISSN 0022-3433
Éditeur: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343317691330

Civil Society and the Democratic Peace

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Michael Bernhard, Jan Teorell
Publié dans: Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2019, Page(s) 002200271985062, ISSN 0022-0027
Éditeur: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022002719850620

Fraud, grievances, and post-election protests in competitive authoritarian regimes

Auteurs: Espen Geelmuyden Rød
Publié dans: Electoral Studies, Numéro 58, 2019, Page(s) 12-20, ISSN 0261-3794
Éditeur: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2019.01.003

ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Matthias Basedau, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Frederick Hoyles, Lisa Hultman, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen, Naima Mouhleb, Sayyed Auwn Muhammad, Desirée Nilsson, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Gerald Schneider, Nina von Uexkull, Jonas Vestby
Publié dans: Journal of Peace Research, Numéro 56/2, 2018, Page(s) 155-174, ISSN 0022-3433
Éditeur: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343319823860

The oracle or the crowd? Experts versus the stock market in forecasting ceasefire success in the Levant

Auteurs: Gerald Schneider, Maya Hadar, Naomi Bosler
Publié dans: Journal of Peace Research, Numéro 54/2, 2017, Page(s) 231-242, ISSN 0022-3433
Éditeur: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343316683437

Do the robot

Auteurs: Michael Colaresi, Zuhaib Mahmood
Publié dans: Journal of Peace Research, Numéro 54/2, 2017, Page(s) 193-214, ISSN 0022-3433
Éditeur: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343316682065

The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis

Auteurs: Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Håvard Hegre
Publié dans: Public Choice, 2019, ISSN 0048-5829
Éditeur: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s11127-019-00742-z

Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality

Auteurs: Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Peder Landsverk
Publié dans: International Studies Quarterly, 2021, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 0020-8833
Éditeur: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaa094

United They Stand: Findings from an Escalation Prediction Competition'. International Interactions

Auteurs: Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Michael Colaresi, Remco Bastiaan Jansen, Adeline Lo, Gregor Reisch Nils B. Weidmann
Publié dans: International Interactions, Numéro Online, 2022, Page(s) 1-38, ISSN 1547-7444
Éditeur: Taylor & Francis Online
DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2029856

Employing Local Peacekeeping Data to Forecast Changes in Violence

Auteurs: Lisa Hultman, Maxine Leis, Desirée Nilsson
Publié dans: International Interactions, 2022, ISSN 1547-7444
Éditeur: Taylor & Francis Online
DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2055010

Who knows what tomorrow will bring? Four papers on the prediction of contentious politics.

Auteurs: David Randahl
Publié dans: Doctoral Thesis/Report Department of Peace and Conflict Research 128, 2022, ISBN 978-91-506-2948-4
Éditeur: Uppsala University

The Internet and Political Protest in Autocracies

Auteurs: Nils B. Weidmann, Espen Geelmuyden Rød
Publié dans: Oxford Studies in Digital Politics, 2019
Éditeur: Oxford University Press

Climate and conflict

Auteurs: Paola Vesco, Halvard Buhaug
Publié dans: Routledge Handbook of Peace, Security and Development, 2020, Page(s) 105-120, ISBN 9781351172202
Éditeur: Routledge

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